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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Poor nations warn climate deal will fail without money deal
By Charlotte PLANTIVE, Karl MALAKUNAS
Le Bourget, France (AFP) Dec 3, 2015


Honduras, Myanmar, Haiti top risk list, says climate group
Le Bourget, France (AFP) Dec 3, 2015 - Honduras, Myanmar and Haiti top a new list of nations hardest hit by two decades of storms, floods and landslides that killed more than half a million people, climate analysts reported Thursday, warning of more frequent disasters if Earth's overheating cannot be tamed.

Scientists point to the mounting threat from storms, floods, droughts and rising seas if mankind cannot brake emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, especially from fossil fuels.

A red flag to negotiators from 195 countries trying to broker a global climate-saving pact in Paris, the Bonn-based advocacy group Germanwatch released the 2016 Global Climate Risk Index showing those nations most affected by the direct consequences of extreme weather events.

Honduras, Myanmar and Haiti were the most afflicted by such disasters between 1995 and 2014, said the latest edition of the annual index.

Next were the Philippines, Nicaragua, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Pakistan, Thailand and Guatemala.

Altogether, more than 525,000 people died as a direct result of about 15,000 extreme weather events, the report said.

Losses amounted to more than $2.97 trillion (2.8 trillion euros), it said.

Honduras tops the list partly because it is in the Central American hurricane belt.

Although Honduras endured fewer extreme events than the Philippines, Bangladesh and some other disaster-prone nations, its financial losses as a percentage of its national economy were the highest.

- More severe events ahead -

The analysis only looked at the direct results of extreme weather, it stressed, whereas the indirect consequences of extreme weather such as drought and famine resulting from heatwaves can be much more deadly.

It shows only one piece of the puzzle and is not a comprehensive index of vulnerability to climate change, researchers stressed.

For example, the study does not take into account sea-level rise, glacier melting or more acidic and warmer seas.

A growing body of research connects global warming and extreme weather, Germanwatch said.

"The Climate Risk Index thus indicates a level of exposure and vulnerability to extreme events that countries should understand as a warning to be prepared for more frequent and/or more severe events in the future," the report said.

Germanwatch urged negotiators at the UN climate conference underway in Le Bourget, outside Paris, to reach a universal deal to avert a climate catastrophe.

"Paris needs to deliver a far-reaching and durable climate regime that safeguards affected populations," it warned.

Participants said the talks were progressing only slowly, though.

After three days of haggling over a hugely complex 54-page draft pact, bureaucrats unveiled a document just four pages shorter and with vast stretches of text yet to be agreed.

Looking at 2014 alone, the Germanwatch study showed Serbia, Afghanistan and Bosnia suffered most from extreme weather events.

They were followed by the Philippines, Pakistan, Bulgaria, Nepal, Burundi, Bolivia and India.

Most of the countries who made it in the top 10 for extreme weather in 2014 had suffered "exceptional catastrophes," Germanwatch said.

But "over the last few years another category of countries has been gaining relevance: countries that are recurrently affected by catastrophes such as the Philippines and Pakistan," it said.

Tolls from disasters are also affected by development strategies, such as population growth in vulnerable areas and protection against extreme events, experts warn.

Angry developing nations warned Thursday that UN talks aimed at averting catastrophic climate change would fail unless a bitter feud over hundreds of billions of dollars was resolved.

Negotiators from 195 nations are haggling in Paris over a planned universal accord to slash greenhouse-gas emissions that trap the Sun's heat, warming Earth's surface and oceans and disrupting its delicate climate system.

Taking effect from 2020, the pact would target emissions from fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas -- the backbone of the world's energy supply today -- as well as from the cutting down of rainforests.

The question of finance to help developing countries make the shift to cleaner energy sources is "make or break", said South African negotiator Nozipho Mxakato-Diseko, who spoke on behalf of the G77 group of 134 developing and emerging countries, plus China.

"It has to be clearly understood that finance is critical," she told a news conference.

At stake is hundreds of billions of dollars that would need to start flowing from rich to developing nations from 2020. However the developed nations have yet to fully commit to the financing deal.

Gambia's Environment Minister, Pa Ousman Jarju, also demanded money for poor nations to pay for the fallout of climate change events -- known as loss and damage.

"If loss and damage is not addressed adequately, there will be no agreement in Paris," he said.

"There is not going to be any other, second Paris. This is the time. This is the moment."

More than 150 world leaders including President Barack Obama launched the talks Monday, seeking to build momentum for the tough negotiations ahead with lofty rhetoric about the urgency of the task.

But after three days of grinding discussions over a hugely complex 54-page draft pact, bureaucrats unveiled a document just four pages shorter and with vast stretches of text yet to be agreed.

- 'Very, very dangerous' -

"I don't see any translation of the rhetoric of the leaders of the world into working towards tangible outcomes in Paris. This is very, very dangerous," Tuvalu Prime Minister Enele Sosene Sopoaga said.

Ministers from around the globe will descend on Paris Monday to try to transform the draft prepared by diplomats into a universal accord to avert planetary overheating. The conference is scheduled to end on December 11.

"At this rate, when ministers arrive next week they will wonder what progress has been made since world leaders took to the podium in Paris," said Greenpeace's head of international climate politics Martin Kaiser.

At the core of the talks is the goal of limiting average warming to a maximum of two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over pre-Industrial Revolution levels.

Kaiser said long-term goals were now clearer in the draft, though it did not call for fossil fuels to be phased out by 2050 so as to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius -- a more ambitious target being pushed by low-lying island nations at risk of sinking into rising seas.

"On other parts of the text, there's been even less progress," he warned.

In any case, James Hansen, one of the world's foremost climate scientists, warned in an interview with AFP that the world would be taking a big risk by aiming at a 2 C target.

"Two degrees Celsius warming above pre-Industrial would put us at least at the temperature of the last inter-glacial period. Sea level was six to nine metres (20-30 feet) higher then," he said.

"If we let ice sheets become unstable, the world may become ungovernable

because the economic consequence would be so great."

- 'Failure unthinkable' -

The World Wide Fund for Nature's head of delegation, Tasneem Essop, said the draft was "mostly unchanged" from when negotiators landed in Paris.

"Right now, they're still just rearranging the deck chairs on the ship to get a better view of the iceberg," it said in a statement.

Nevertheless, she said the text contained the core elements for an accord, and the results could have been worse.

"It is good to see that despite some fears the text has not ballooned further with lots of new insertions."

Despite the concerns, French Environment Minister Segolene Royal said negotiations were advancing.

"It is normal for it to take a day or two for negotiations to get into gear," she told AFP.

"It is unthinkable to imagine failure."

Scientists warn time for action is running out, issuing ever-louder warnings that steadily growing carbon emissions will doom future generations to rising seas and worsening floods, storms and drought -- a recipe for hunger, disease and homelessness for many millions.

Bonn-based climate analysts Germanwatch issued a report saying Honduras, Myanmar and Haiti topped the list of nations hardest hit by two decades of extreme weather events such as storms and landslides that killed more than half a million people.

Leading economies must deliver on climate financing: Ban
United Nations, United States (AFP) Dec 3, 2015 - The world's leading economies must deliver on their promise to raise $100 billion for climate financing by 2020, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said Thursday.

Developing countries are demanding a clear commitment to the financial contribution agreed during the Copenhagen summit in 2009 as part of the climate deal being negotiated in Paris.

"I have been urging the developed world leaders that this must be delivered," Ban told reporters at UN headquarters.

"This is one very important promise."

Negotiators from 195 nations are haggling in Paris over a universal accord to slash greenhouse-gas emissions but the G77 group of developing countries plus China have warned there will be no deal without financing.

The poorer nations are seeking billions of dollars to help them make the shift to cleaner energy sources and build resilience to the impacts of global warming.

Ban said that of the $100 billion to be mobilized by 2020, $62 billion has been raised.

"Now we have another five years to go. And everybody said that it is doable, and it can be presented in a credible way," he added.

The dispute over climate financing has revolved around the sources of financing, which would be shared among governments, international institutions like the World Bank, and other private and public sources.

More than 150 world leaders including President Barack Obama launched the talks Monday, hoping to seal the landmark deal by December 11.


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