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TRADE WARS
Report: Global trade picking up faster
by Staff Writers
New York (UPI) Feb 21, 2012

disclaimer: image is for illustration purposes only

Global trade may be picking up faster than originally anticipated and that may be good news for U.S. commerce and business elsewhere.

Until recently, hopes were pinned on trade accelerating no earlier than 2015. But recent findings from business activities worldwide suggest international trade growth in the United States and elsewhere around the world will accelerate beginning in 2014, one year earlier than forecast.

The prognosis from HSBC's Global Connections trade forecast said international business will recover more rapidly than expected and increase trade activity earlier due to two key trends: trade fueling more trade and international businesses in search of the best trade partners developing new trade corridors, regardless of location.

Overall global trade is projected to grow $1 trillion year-on-year to 2016.

Exports are expected to fuel U.S. trade growth in near term. U.S. exports to China are forecast to outpace U.S. imports from China during next five years, the report said.

Of these, U.S. motor vehicle exports to China are likely to grow at annualized rate of nearly 12 percent in the next five years.

"The U.S. economy is expected to grow moderately in 2012 but our latest trade forecast shows that to accelerate growth and keep pace with the rest of the world, particularly the emerging world, over the long-term, U.S. businesses will want to begin better connecting themselves to international markets now," said Stephen Bottomley, senior executive vice president and head of commercial banking, HSBC North America.

"Across industries, and across regions of the world, the trade forecast reveals there is plenty of opportunity for many years to come for forward-looking internationally minded companies that plan ahead. HSBC can serve as a trusted adviser and provide business customers a full spectrum of products and services that can assist them with thinking out and executing their international growth plans."

The long-range U.S. and global trade snapshot, encompassing the next five, 10 and 15 years, is part of a broader look at global trade. HSBC says its Global Connections research spans 37 countries and is a comprehensive exploration of the future opportunities for businesses operating internationally, combining trade data from around the world with lead indicators of world trade and macroeconomic trend information.

It also identifies new and emerging trade hubs -- countries that are developing or expanding their role as gateways in key trade corridors or between regions.

Emerging trade corridors suggest that North America will be reducing reliance on China with Vietnam, Indonesia, Turkey and Poland all emerging as key trade partners

Inter-regional trade remains significant for North America, largely driven by trade between the United States and Canada, with Mexico accounting for roughly 25 percent of all North American inter-regional trade.

Trade growth in Latin America is predicted to grow one-third more than predicted for the rest of the world which reflects strong infrastructure development in the region.

"The growth of trade is not merely an emerging market story, rather an international one. In 2011, U.S. exports grew an impressive 14.5 percent, with exports of U.S. manufactured goods reaching a record $1.27 trillion," said Christopher Lewis, executive vice president, head of global trade and receivables finance, HSBC North America.

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Clinton pledges 'Jobs Diplomacy' for economy
Washington (AFP) Feb 21, 2012 - Hillary Clinton promised Tuesday to put the force of her State Department behind US businesses, calling for "jobs diplomacy" to help boost exports and jumpstart a still wobbly economy.

With jobs the key issue for November elections, Clinton pledged that she would meet business leaders on every foreign trip and named a former investment banker, Heidi Rediker, to a new position of State Department chief economist.

"I have made 'Jobs Diplomacy' a priority mission at the State Department," the top US diplomat told a conference with corporate executives.

"We had fallen behind some other countries -- some of them our friends and allies -- when it came to using diplomacy to promote economic interests. American companies haven't always seen the federal government as an ally," Clinton said.

"I've directed all our senior diplomats to conduct business outreach and advocacy when they travel overseas," she said. "We will not rest until the US government is the most effective champion of business and trade anywhere."

Clinton's initiative to support businesses comes as the United States also goes on the offensive over other countries' support to corporations. Clinton said that the United States remained committed to free markets.

The United States has accused China of unfairly providing government funding in competitive areas such as renewable energy, failing to protect intellectual property rights and artificially keeping its currency low to boost exports.

"We will not stand by when our competitors don't play by the same rules. This administration has already brought trade cases against China at nearly twice the rate of our predecessors," Clinton said.

President Barack Obama's administration set an ambitious goal of doubling US exports from 2010 to 2015, hoping that greater trade can provide new impetus to an economy still recovering from the global recession.

"Why, you might ask, is the secretary of state now spending as much time thinking about market swings as missile silos? Well, to put it very plainly, Americans need jobs," Clinton said.

Obama has highlighted success stories from US manufacturing during his recent travels, stopping last week at sites of aviation giant Boeing in Washington state and of padlock maker Master Lock in Wisconsin.

New claims for US unemployment benefits fell last week to their lowest level since March 2008, but polls show widespread concern by Americans about the economy.



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