Subscribe free to our newsletters via your
. Earth Science News .




TRADE WARS
Resource boom helps Latin America improve credit ratings
by Staff Writers
Rio De Janeiro (UPI) Jul 9, 2013


disclaimer: image is for illustration purposes only

Increase in earnings from commodities and other natural resources helped Latin American countries improve their credit ratings during the first half of this year, but growth has come with costs as inflation begins to bite.

A painful trade-off between growth and inflation was one of the stark realities faced by regional countries as growth created its own problems, independent ratings data indicated.

In Brazil, economic growth has pushed up inflation, made the national currency real less competitive in global export markets, hurt living standards and put a heavy strain on the country's infrastructure.

Brazil and Argentina, major commodity exporters, were hit by bottlenecks in port systems handling increased exports.

Fitch ratings agency said sovereign ratings in most Latin American countries improved during the first half of the year but major challenges remained. Jamaica was a notable exception after facing a sovereign downgrade driven more by a domestic debt adjustment than actual economic underperformance in exports or industrial activity.

Overall sovereign rating actions in Latin America had a positive bias in the January-June period and included upgrades of Mexico and Uruguay and Colombia's revised rating to positive from stable.

Fitch downgraded Jamaica's foreign currency and local currency issuer default ratings to restricted default. The move from IDRS to RD resulted from a domestic debt exchange that "adversely impacted the original contractual terms of domestic bondholders," Fitch said.

Almost the entire Caribbean region is facing other economic uncertainties over fuel prices and the impact of Middle East crisis on global oil trade.

Fitch called the rating outlook for the majority of sovereigns in the region as stable, saying positive and negative rating pressures are "evenly balanced."

Colombia and Ecuador have a positive outlook, while El Salvador, Venezuela and Argentina's local currency IDRs have a negative outlook, the ratings data showed.

"Slow global recovery, slower domestic demand growth, softer commodity prices and country-specific factors are leading to a slowdown in most of the regional economies in 2013," Fitch Latin America sovereign group head Shelly Shetty said.

Improvements in fiscal and external solvency and liquidity indicators may be hindered and weigh on the upward potential of sovereign ratings, Shetty said.

Growth in Latin America's real gross domestic product will reach 2.9 percent this year, Fitch said, revising an earlier forecast of 3.3 percent. However, excluding Brazil, Latin America's real GDP will slow to 3.2 percent this year from 4.1 percent in 2012.

Fitch expects the multiple speed growth in the region to continue. The five highest growth countries are Bolivia, Chile, Peru, Panama and Paraguay.

Fitch isn't the first agency to predict Paraguay is set to become the the fastest growing economy in the region after a "mild contraction" in 2012. The small landlocked country has a running quarrel with bigger neighbors over Mercosur moves to isolate Paraguay over its controversial political transition after the ouster of former President Fernando Lugo last year.

The smaller economies of Ecuador, Colombia and Suriname are set to grow above 4 percent this year, while Brazil and Mexico are likely to drag at 2.5 percent and 3 percent respectively.

Along with Jamaica, El Salvador and and Venezuela will underperform with growth below 2 percent, Fitch predicted.

With the exception of Brazil and Uruguay, most inflation-targeting countries have well-contained inflation, which should give them space to cut rates should economic conditions deteriorate. However, the recent volatility and depreciating pressure on regional currencies may hinder the monetary flexibility to some extent. Colombia and Mexico have already cut interest rates.

Brazil faces a difficult growth-inflation tradeoff as its central bank recently accelerated the pace of interest rate hikes to respond to inflation despite a gradual economic recovery. Argentina and Venezuela will continue to have the highest inflation rates in the region.

Fiscal deterioration is expected in several countries as revenue growth slows on the back of the economic slowdown and lower commodity prices.

"Structural weaknesses continue to weigh down creditworthiness in Latin America," Fitch says. "While the reform process has gained some momentum in Mexico, progress in the region overall remains spotty and is likely to be further slowed by the heavy electoral calendar in 2014," said Shetty.

.


Related Links
Global Trade News






Comment on this article via your Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, Hotmail login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle








TRADE WARS
Mongolia's massive Oyu Tolgoi mine begins copper shipments
Ulan Bator, Mongolia (UPI) Jul 9, 2013
Mining giant Rio Tinto's $6.2 billion copper and gold Oyu Tolgoi project in Mongolia has started to ship copper concentrate to customers, the company said. The first copper concentrate was produced at the mine in January and Rio Tinto had projected commercial output to begin by the end of last month, but the company and the government had disagreements over costs and financing, The Wal ... read more


TRADE WARS
Man who battled Fukushima disaster dies of cancer

Fukushima radioactive groundwater readings rocket

REACTing to a crisis

RESCUE Consortium Demonstrates Technologies for First Responders

TRADE WARS
Increasing the Speed of Deep Space Communications

Molecular chains hypersensitive to magnetic fields

New Metallic Bubble Wrap Offers Big Benefits Over Other Protective Materials

Inscription found on fragment in Israel said earliest ever found

TRADE WARS
N.Z suspends Tonga aid over Chinese plane fears

Corals cozy up with bacterial buddies

Parched Jordan to tap ancient aquifer

Great Barrier Reef's condition is declining

TRADE WARS
Scientists Image Vast Subglacial Water System Underpinning West Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier

Antarctic glacier calves iceberg 8 times as big as Manhattan Island

Evidence suggests Antarctic crabs could be native

CryoSat maps largest-ever flood beneath Antarctica

TRADE WARS
Mead Johnson to cut formula prices amid China probe

The balancing act of producing more food sustainably

Earliest evidence of using flower beds for burial found in Raqefet Cave in Mt. Carmel

University of East Anglia research reveals true cost of farming to UK economy

TRADE WARS
China rain, landslides leave 28 dead, 66 missing

Haiti on alert as storm Chantal approaches

Storm Erick leaves two dead, two missing in Mexico

Chantal nears hurricane strength in Caribbean

TRADE WARS
Investment tops agenda as Nigerian president visits China

Three Mozambique soldiers arrested for highway robbery

Mozambique army attacks former rebel camp

Beijing finances new Guinea-Bissau presidential palace

TRADE WARS
Did Neandertals have language?

How well can you see with your ears? Device offers new alternative to blind people

Ability of people to 'see' with their ears called impressive

Parts of ancient sphinx found in Israel




The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2014 - Space Media Network. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA Portal Reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement,agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement