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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Saudi, US snub of climate report unsettles UN talks
By Marlowe HOOD
Katowice, Poland (AFP) Dec 11, 2018

US, Saudi Arabia back-of-the-pack on curbing climate change
Katowice, Poland (AFP) Dec 10, 2018 - The United States and Saudi Arabia rank last when it comes to curbing climate change among the 56 nations accounting for 90 percent of planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions, researchers said Monday.

A large number of laggards means the world is dangerously off-track when it comes to slashing the carbon pollution that has already amplified droughts, flooding and deadly heatwaves worldwide, they reported on the margins of UN climate talks in Katowice, Poland.

"Only a few countries have started to implement strategies to limit global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit)," the cornerstone target of the 2015 Paris climate treaty, according to NewClimate Institute and Germanwatch, an NGO.

Most governments "lack the political will to phase out fossil fuels with the necessary speed."

Global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), which accounts for 80 percent of global warming, will climb nearly three percent in 2018, scientists confirmed last week.

After holding steady from 2014 through 2016 -- raising hopes that humanity had turned a corner on climate change -- carbon pollution started to climb again last year, driven by increased use of oil, gas and coal.

A major UN report in October concluded that CO2 emission levels must drop a quarter within 12 years to stay under 2C, and by half over the same period to cap warming at 1.5C, seen as a safer guardrail against catastrophic extreme weather.

Sweden and Morocco scored highest in the annual ranking, the survey showed, with Britain, India, Norway, Portugal and the European Union as a whole in the top tranche as well.

The three-place podium, however, was left empty because no country's policies and actions were deemed sufficient, it said.

- Fossil fuel lock-in -

Other nations at the bottom of the list included Iran, South Korea, Australia, Canada, Russia, Turkey and Japan.

In determining a score, the Climate Change Performance Index looked at each country's progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, building up renewable energy such as wind and solar, energy use, and its climate policies.

On current trends, the world is on track to heat up four or five degrees Celsius by century's end.

National pledges to cut carbon pollution annexed to the Paris Agreement -- if fulfilled -- would still see the global thermometer rise by more than 3C, a recipe for climate chaos, according to scientists.

Earth's average surface temperature has risen by about 1C since the mid-19th century.

"The costs of electricity from wind and solar have dropped by roughly a third since the Paris Agreement, so all countries can increase ambition and pace," said co-author Niklas Hohne, a professor at the NewClimate Institute.

In 40 of the 56 countries survey, emissions went down between 2011 and 2016.

At the same time, however, investment in fossil fuel infrastructure -- and the risk of being locked into a high-emissions future -- increased.

US President Donald Trump has dismantled many of the climate change policies of his predecessor, Barack Obama. He has also promoted the use of fossil fuels and tried to unwind more stringent fuel standards for vehicles.

The US might have ranked last but for the ambitious climate policies of California and other states, the report said.

India's ranking, 11, improved due to a rapid installation of solar energy, a low per capita carbon footprint, and relatively aggressive targets for reducing emissions.

The refusal of the United States and Saudi Arabia to embrace a landmark environmental report has unsettled UN talks to breathe life back into the Paris climate pact, negotiators and observers said Monday.

It may also signal more direct involvement of Donald Trump's White House, they said, in the nitty-gritty of the troubled negotiations, which depend on painstaking consensus building.

A US side event Monday promoting coal, gas and nuclear energy, led by special advisor to the president Preston Wells Griffith, reinforced that impression.

"Alarmism should not silence realism," Griffith said before slogan-chanting protestors temporarily overwhelmed the venue.

"We strongly believe that no country should have to sacrifice economic prosperity or energy security in pursuit of environmental sustainability."

Trump announced in June last year that the United States would pull out of the 197-party Paris Agreement, which enjoins nations to cap global warming at "well below" two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit).

Since then, critics say the White House appears to have taken little interest in the frontline work of veteran US diplomats, whose input has been described as "constructive" even by delegates at odds with US positions.

That changed on Saturday, during what started as a cut-and-dried meeting of a subsidiary body within the complex UN climate machinery.

A bloc of 44 small island nations -- many facing an existential threat from storm surges engorged by rising seas -- called on the UN climate body to "welcome" a UN report on limiting global warming to 1.5C (2.7F) above pre-industrial levels.

Earth's average surface temperature has already risen by about 1C.

- 'Deeply irresponsible' -

The motion quickly garnered "an avalanche of support" from more than 100 developed and developing countries, including the European Union, said Rueanna Hayne, a delegate from Saint Kitts and Nevis.

"The report is obviously a game-changer for us," she told AFP. "It has to be mainstreamed into the UN process."

Unveiled in October, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) "special report" concluded that CO2 emissions must drop a quarter within 12 years to stay under 2C, and by nearly half to cap warming at 1.5C, seen as a safer guardrail against catastrophic extreme weather.

Most of those emissions come from the burning of fossil fuels, including oil, the mainstay of the Saudi economy.

The United States disagreed with the motion.

The fact that Washington had signed off in October on a "summary for policymakers" of the 1,000-page tome "doesn't imply endorsement of the specific findings," a US delegate said.

Kuwait, Russia and Saudi Arabia voiced similar reservations, and proposed that the UN climate body simply "note" the report, and not "welcome" it.

The Saudi negotiator, visibly angry, seemed to be spoiling for a fight: "This is a warm up for what's coming," he cautioned.

The issue -- unresolved -- was shelved.

Reaction at the 12-day talks, scheduled to run through Friday, was fast and furious.

"Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kuwait and especially the United States are rogue nations," said Christian Aid international climate lead Mohamed Adow.

"These four major fossil fuel producers are working together against the interests of the rest of the world and jeopardising the chances of a safe climate."

Alden Meyer, director of strategy and policy for the Union of Concerned Scientists, said the US position was "deeply irresponsible and must not prevail".

"I don't blame the professional US diplomats here in Poland," Meyer told AFP. "The problem is right at the top -- with President Trump."

- 'A live issue' -

Diplomats also slammed the US position.

"Denial doesn't change the reality that climate change is already happening and is even worse than we feared," said Hussain Rasheed Hassan, Maldive's environment minister and head of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS).

"Coral reefs will continue to bleach, forest fires will continue to burn, people will continue to die in droughts, heatwaves, storms, and from diseases, and the sea will continue to rise around us."

In a statement released Monday amid the blowback, Saudi Arabia said "limited literature and scientific uncertainties" in the report "required further research and analysis".

In point of fact, the IPCC report -- the most comprehensive in five years -- drew from more than 6,000 peer reviewed studies and was compiled by hundreds of scientists.

Unexpectedly, how the UN climate forum recognises the 1.5C report has emerged as an issue that could derail the already fragile talks.

"This is not mere word play," said Meyers.

The discussion will move up the ladder a notch as ministers take charge on Tuesday for the final push to complete the so-called "rule book" for the Paris Agreement.

"This is an issue we feel strongly about," said France's junior environment minister Brune Poirson, adding that the question was bound to come up later in the week.

"It remains a live issue and must be addressed," said Hayne from Saint Kitts and Nevis.


Related Links
Climate Science News - Modeling, Mitigation Adaptation


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France says protests no excuse to curb climate battle
Katowice, Poland (AFP) Dec 10, 2018
France said Monday at the UN climate talks it fears certain countries will exploit the "yellow vest" protests to curb their ambitions in the fight against global warming. The "yellow vests", clad in the luminous safety jackets carried by law in all French cars, began slowing or blocking traffic on roads around France last month in protest against anti-pollution fuel tax hikes. The demonstrations have snowballed, leading to calls to topple French President Emmanuel Macron, accused of favouring ... read more

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