While those in favour of the much-anticipated deal with Taiwan's giant neighbour say there will be massive gains, others fear it will wipe out jobs on a huge scale.

No one knows for sure what the consequences will be but the uncertainty unsettles those whose livelihoods may be at risk from the mainland's millions of underpaid workers.

"I'm in the dark, and I'm afraid my job will be affected," said a Taiwanese auto worker, who only wanted to be identified by his surname Wu.

"I don't know what the agreement is about at all, because the government has failed to give the full details."

During Taiwan's boom years from the 1960s to the 1990s, unemployment was seldom on the agenda, but now it has emerged as a decisive political issue.

So far this year the jobless rate in the crisis-battered economy has been 5.82 percent, nearly double the 2.99 percent recorded as late as in 2000.

The government insists the trade pact with China, referred to as an "Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement," will boost the flow of goods and personnel, raising annual economic growth by more than one percentage point.

Taiwan and China, split since a civil war in 1949, will reportedly hold informal talks this week on the trade pact -- the fourth such meeting, which will aim for a timetable for formal negotiations.

Ahead of the talks, the Taiwan authorities have suggested that more than a quarter of a million jobs will be created by the agreement on a net basis.

"It's like a rose," Premier Wu Den-yih said on Friday. "Optimists see the flower, while pessimists see the thorns. The government has to look at both the flower and the thorns."

The flower, according to Wu, is 350,000 new jobs, especially in chemicals, machinery and textiles, while the thorns are more than 80,000 jobs at risk in industries such as tiles and home electronics.

"The estimate of 80,000 affected workers is the worst-case scenario," an official at the Council of Labour Affairs told AFP.

"They won't necessarily all lose their jobs. Some will just receive on-the-job training, and their employers will have to streamline to enhance competitiveness."

However, some analysts called the 80,000 figure unrealistically low, given the island's labour force of more than 10 million.

"What if more industries relocate themselves to the mainland for lower production costs once the pact is signed? That will really hit the job market here," Mega Securities analyst Lucas Lee said.

Kenneth Lin, an economist at National Taiwan University, said the flow of Taiwan investment to the mainland -- up from 0.5 percent of the island's gross domestic product in 2000 to 2.6 percent in 2008 -- had a clear impact on jobs.

"With more and more investors moving to China, our jobless rate has averaged four to five percent between 2000 and 2008, up from two to three percent in the 1990s," he said.

"I expect 150,000 to 200,000 workers will lose their jobs due to the pact."

Lai Shyh-bao, a ruling party lawmaker and management professor at Chengchi University, said the focus on the relationship with China was too narrow, pointing out the pact's potentially beneficial impact on ties with other economies.

"The pact is likely to attract foreign investors to Taiwan as they expect to benefit from the integration with China," he said.

"Increasing foreign investments are expected to create job openings to locals."

related report
Taiwan urged China not to boycott southern city: report
Taiwan has urged China not to boycott its second city after it hosted the Dalai Lama and screened a film about an activist accused by Beijing of inciting unrest, a report said Sunday.

The vice-chairman of Taiwan's quasi-official Straits Exchange Foundation made the appeal to his Chinese counterpart last week during an official visit to the mainland, state Central News Agency said.

Kao Koong-lian told Zheng Lizhong that "boycotting Kaohsiung city was not smart", Kao was quoted by the agency as saying.

He also said that exiled Uighur Rebiya Kadeer had become better known after Beijing apparently ruled that mainland tourist groups should not go to the southern city in light of the screening of the film.

Zheng did not respond to Kao's remarks or say when Beijing would put an end to the de facto travel ban, the report said.

Beijing made no official announcement but hotels in Kaohsiung said they had thousands of cancellations from mainland tourists.

The screening of the Kadeer biopic came after the Dalai Lama, whom Beijing has labelled a "splittist", visited the south of Taiwan in August in the aftermath of a killer typhoon.

The Tibetan spiritual leader said repeatedly his visit was "non-political," but China, which regards Taiwan as part of its territory, voiced anger and cancelled several delegations to the island.

Beijing has also labelled Kadeer a "criminal" and accused her of inciting ethnic violence in China's far-west Xinjiang region in July that led to the deaths of nearly 200 people.

Taipei-Beijing ties have otherwise improved markedly since Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomintang party came to power last year.

"Over the past year, because of our efforts, the Taiwan Strait has become a boulevard of peace and prosperity from a killing field," Ma said Sunday during a meeting of the ruling Kuomintang.

"We hope the cross-Strait ties will continue moving forward on the track."

China and Taiwan held their first direct dialogue in 10 years in Beijing in June last year, leading to regular direct flights across the Taiwan Strait and measures to boost tourism.

Share This Article With Planet Earth

del.icio.us	Digg	Reddit
YahooMyWeb	Google	Facebook

Related Links
Global Trade News

Memory Foam Mattress Review

SPACE MEDIA NETWORK PROMOTIONS Solar Energy Solutions Tempur-Pedic Mattress Comparison ... Newsletters :: SpaceDaily :: SpaceWar :: TerraDaily :: Energy Daily XML Feeds :: Space News :: Earth News :: War News :: Solar Energy News