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Tears and cheers greet China's new economic zone
By Becky Davis
Xiongan, China (AFP) April 16, 2017


China's economy grows 6.9% in first quarter of 2017: govt
Beijing (AFP) April 17, 2017 - China's economy grew 6.9 percent in the first quarter of 2017, government data showed Monday, beating expectations in the latest sign of stabilisation for the world's second-largest economy.

Beijing has said it wants to transition away from a reliance on debt-fuelled investment and towards a consumer-driven economic model, but the transition has proved bumpy.

The economy grew at just 6.7 percent in 2016, its slowest rate in a quarter of a century.

"For the first time in the recent years, China starts a year with a strong headline GDP," Raymond Yeung of Australia & New Zealand Banking Group told Bloomberg News.

"Thanks to strong investment and property, the economy is performing well."

The reading Monday marked the second quarterly improvement since the final three months of 2014.

It was better than the median analyst expectation of 6.8 percent in an AFP poll, and also up on the fourth quarter figure.

"The national economy in the first quarter has maintained the momentum of steady and sound development," the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement.

It added that "positive changes kept emerging and major indicators performed better than expected".

Monday's data also showed China's industrial output growth rose to 7.6 percent year-on-year in March, beating a Bloomberg estimate of 6.3.

Retail spending rebounded to a forecast-beating 10.9 percent, while fixed-asset investment rose 9.2 percent in the first three months of the year, representing a slight acceleration from February.

The readings follow data showing robust foreign trade and a further expansion in factory activity driven by a pickup in production and demand last month.

- 'Same old' growth model -

The faster growth rate was driven by a pick-up in industry and construction, Brian Jackson of IHS Global Insight said in a note, adding that "mining, manufacturing and utilities growth all accelerated", while the services sector slowed.

But the return to stimulus spending and infrastructure to drive the economy shows Beijing has reverted to "the same old" investment-driven growth model, Raymond Yeung and David Qu of ANZ Research wrote in a note.

They said the government's announcement last month that it would build a vast new economic zone in the relatively unprosperous area of Xiong'an shows authorities have a "tendency to rely on infrastructure development to sustain growth".

News of the Xiong'an zone, which is expected to eventually cover a vast area of some 2,000 square kilometres, set off a flurry of speculative real-estate purchases in the area, which has been struggling economically.

Cheap credit has meanwhile bolstered the construction sector since last year, attracting savers and speculators who have fuelled housing prices in large cities and accelerated manufacturing activity.

But looking ahead, China's growth momentum is not expected to last through the whole year, Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics said in a note.

"Our own measure of economic activity also points to a strong start to 2017, though we don't expect the strength to be sustained," he said.

"With the acceleration in credit growth that helped drive the recent recovery now being reversed, we still expect the economy to begin slowing before long."

Jackson said that a steady deceleration in the real estate sector should take hold from the second quarter, adding that it would "create an additional drag for both the services and construction components of GDP".

The government has trimmed its 2017 GDP growth target to "around 6.5 percent".

According to the AFP poll's median full-year forecast, China's GDP growth will fall to 6.6 percent for the year.

Business owner Hu Weibing weeps at the prospect of losing everything, including his home, after China's surprise announcement to transform a rural spot outside Beijing into a modern metropolis nearly three times the size of New York City.

Hu's family run-clothing factory in the northern province of Hebei could close at the expense of a new special economic zone similar to those in Shanghai and Shenzhen.

The planned Xiongan New Area currently measures 2,000 square kilometres (772 square miles) and has less than one percent of Beijing's economic output, but last weekend's announcement sparked a real estate speculation frenzy as out-of-town home buyers from across the country descended on the previously unknown area.

"It's certainly good for Hebei and the regional economy, but it's a disaster for mid- and small-sized business like ours," said Hu, staring at the bare concrete walls of the four-storey dream home he began building last year but will never be able to finish.

Though authorities have not yet told him what is next, he is bracing for things to progress in the fashion that has become typical for government mega-projects: forced relocation and modest monetary compensation.

The changes will scatter his 40 local employees, each painstakingly trained for two years to produce the winter jackets that Hu's Yuhua Clothing Manufacturing sells to clients in Moscow.

And land prices elsewhere are guaranteed to be out of his reach.

"To build another factory or another villa like ours will be impossible. It's a terrible shame," he said quietly, unable to stop tears sliding down his face after devoting decades of his life to the business.

"There will be no way to ever compensate us, but this is a huge national issue, so whatever comes we must support it."

- 'It's crazy' -

There are some 19 national-level "New Areas" scattered across China, 13 of which have been established since 2014.

But Xiongan stands out: President Xi Jinping personally designated its location during a February trip to the fields just outside Hu's village of Dawang, according to Xinhua News.

Following the announcement, housing prices doubled in a single day, as speculators queued outside real estate offices, clogging the streets with luxury vehicles as they battled to snap up properties for cash.

Shocked by the chaos, local authorities quickly imposed strict bans on home sales and ordered brokers to close up shop.

By mid-week, offices across the area were closed, their metal grates pulled down and crosses of white tape over them for good measure.

But individuals with properties for sale were still willing to approach potential buyers with prices that had gone up 300 percent in three days, they told AFP.

An investor surnamed Wang had come to check out opportunities from Beijing, 100 kilometres away, but declined an offer to buy at a rate higher than the average cost of a home in the bustling port city of Tianjin.

"I could've accepted some 13 or 14,000 yuan ($2,000) per square metre, but 30,000 is simply too much for an investment of at least ten years where you don't even know how things will turn out in the end," he said.

"It's crazy -- they're still planting crops here! What if Old Xi steps down and they never build anything here at all?"

- 'Life-changing' -

Currently, the flat fields of the three counties that make up the proposed Xiongan New Area are speckled with traditional tombs -- waist-high mounds of dirt topped with fluttering paper offerings.

The two-lane roads that traverse them are lined with cement producers, factories noisily churning cobs into cornmeal and, thanks to a robust commercial network with Russia, shops selling mink and raccoon furs dyed garish shades of blue and pink.

Yet authorities hope the area will flourish into a new centre for growth in the world's second-largest economy, which last year expanded at its slowest rate in a quarter of a century.

Analysts, however, predict its overall economic punch will be "limited", as the venture lacks measures to spur the types of exciting new financial reforms that were the real drivers of growth for the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone, established in the 1980s, and Shanghai's Pudong New Area, set up in the 1990s.

"The project is still effectively just a major push to improve the infrastructure and integration of the Hebei region, rather than a test bed for deeper market reforms that could have a much wider economic impact," said Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics.

But for many who've toiled in the fields around Xiongan for generations, the development is guaranteed to be "life-changing", said a resident surnamed Zhang, 63, who recalled the extraordinary hardships of his childhood in the early 1960s.

"It's such good luck -- living here is better even than in Xiamen," he said, referring to a warm southern Chinese port city popular with retirees. "Now we're all special economic zone residents!"

TRADE WARS
China producer prices jump 7.6% in March: govt
Beijing (AFP) April 12, 2017
Prices for goods at the factory gate in China jumped in March, the government said Wednesday, in a positive sign of strengthening demand for the world's second-largest economy. The producer price index (PPI) rose 7.6 percent year-on-year in March, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, slightly beating economists' expectations of a 7.5 percent increase in a Bloomberg News survey. ... read more

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