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Terror Goes Beyond Cargo Ships

The hijacking of cruise ships is a much more likely and looming threat, as there have already been several cases.
by Jacob Russell
UPI Correspondent
Washington (UPI) Oct 23, 2006
Cruise ships could prove softer, more attractive targets for terrorists than container cargo vessels, U.S. experts warn.

The issue of maritime terrorism is much more complex than the threat of nuclear or radiological detonation on container ships, according to a recent report from experts.

"There is, admittedly, an overly strong emphasis on containers," Detlof von Winterfeldt, director of the Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events, said.

The threats of targeting cruise ships or ferries are much more probable and must be taken into account. "It's beyond just being concerned about containers," Henry Willis, policy researcher for Rand Corp., told United Press International.

Container ships are for the most part bad for terrorist agendas, according to Peter Chalk, associate political scientist for the Rand Corp. They are difficult to sink and they more often than not operate on skeleton crews. Most attacks warrant little publicity.

"Cargo ships are out of sight, out mind," Chalk said.

"We do know that terrorists like to take public transportation modes that involve lots of people ... like trains," von Winterfeldt said.

Chalk and Willis are two of the five authors of the 150-plus page report "Maritime Terrorism: Risk and Liability."

It is still important to be prepared, as these ships are beneficial for terrorists to facilitate operations. Since most of them run on skeleton crews, it would not be difficult to covertly put weapons or personnel in containers and smuggle them into ports.

The likeliness that nuclear weapons would be smuggled is slim, both authors agreed. Not everybody is so certain.

"Certainly we have maritime terrorism; the real threat in everybody's mind is the important of nuclear or radiological devices through container traffic," von Winterfeldt said.

"Some of our analyses suggest a dirty bomb attack would have severe economic impact," Isaac Maya, director of research at the Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events, added.

However, the hijacking of cruise ships is a much more likely and looming threat, as there have already been several cases. One such case was in 1985, when Palestinian terrorists hijacked the Italian cruise ship the Achille Lauro on the Mediterranean. Several people were shot and one American was killed. At the time, it made a lot of press, according to von Winterfeldt.

A big fear is that terrorists will use pleasure boats such as yachts to bring in their materials. "Those are relatively unprotected," von Winterfeldt said.

While attacking a cruise ship is incredibly difficult to do, as cruise ship's hulls are double-lined, they're water tight, they have good stability in water, and they are very big, other attacks could be directed against them that could scare people.

For example, terrorists could bomb areas where lots of passengers congregate, such as casinos. Other methods would include the use of flat trajectory weapons -- sniper rifles and rocket-propelled grenades -- during boarding as passengers tend to congregate on the upper deck. There have also been cases of arson attacks. Contaminated food supply is another potential problem.

Ferries, likewise, have a higher risk. While all of the above apply to ferries, they are also easier to sink, particularly vehicular ferries which transport trucks and cars. Much of the screening of trucks and cars are rudimentary because of the sheer numbers involved.

These types of ferries also have a very susceptible center of gravity. A small amount of water in these areas can capsize a ship. Chalk said it has been suggested that as little as 1 foot of water on the lower deck could tip a ferry.

Arson attacks, likewise -- if they aren't put out quickly -- can have catastrophic effects.

At the same time, there are many factors to deter terrorists from maritime attacks. Land operations, for one, are easier to facilitate; since targets are stationary, they are immediately accessible to reporters. Being on the sea also requires special controls.

"We do not see this as a report that says the next attack will be in the maritime domain," Willis said. "In fact, if you use the logic laid out in the reports, threats on land would be more likely than threats in the maritime environment. We wanted to show that the risk in the maritime domain is more complex than it may have been perceived on a first assessment."

There is a definite risk that must be dealt with by policymakers. Several factors include the proliferation of companies specializing in maritime equipment or sport, such as scuba diving, which makes sea operations more accessible at affordable costs.

The increased pressure on many states to act on homeland security also makes getting onto land more difficult.

"The public needs to understand that homeland security extends beyond the TSA security to which it is mostly exposed, and that there is terrorist risk in other areas that needs to be addressed," Maya said.

Source: United Press International

Related Links
News and analysis about the Global War Against Terror at SpaceWar.com
21st Century Pirates

Maritime Risks Increase For Cruise Ships And Ferries
Washington (UPI) Oct 18, 2006
A just published Rand report entitled "Maritime and Terrorism: Risk and Liability" states that maritime terrorism risk includes cruise ships and ferries. The Insurance Journal quoted Rand report co-author Peter Chalk on Oct. 16 as saying: "Attacks on cruise ships and ferry boats would meet the interrelated requirements of visibility, destruction and disruption that drive transnational terrorism in the contemporary era. Recognizing this is essential to any comprehensive regime of maritime security."







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