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POLITICAL ECONOMY
Top Chinese official says some economic data 'man-made'

by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) Dec 7, 2010
Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang, widely tipped to be the next premier, admitted in 2007 that some of the country's economic data was "man-made" and thus unreliable, leaked US diplomatic cables show.

Li -- whom analysts expect will succeed Premier Wen Jiabao in the coming years -- was the top Communist Party official in the northeastern province of Liaoning when he made the remarks to then-US ambassador Clark Randt.

When evaluating the province's economy, Li said he focused on three figures -- electricity consumption, volume of rail cargo and the amount of loans issued, a confidential memo released by whistleblower website WikiLeaks said.

"By looking at these three figures, Li said he can measure with relative accuracy the speed of economic growth," the cable said.

"All other figures, especially GDP statistics, are 'for reference only,' he said, smiling."

If Li succeeds Wen as expected in 2013, he will be responsible for the day-to-day running of government as well as economic policy in the world's second-largest economy.

During the dinner in Beijing, Li mainly focused on the challenges of administering the province and trade relations between the United States and China, which he described as "developing smoothly".

Li said the income gaps in Liaoning "remain severe" despite official statistics showing the province recorded "brisk economic growth of... 12.8 percent in 2006".

"GDP figures are 'man-made' and therefore unreliable, Li said," according to the leaked notes of the dinner.

Analysts have long questioned the reliability of data provided by local government officials in China, whose career prospects depend on the pace of economic growth in their region -- giving them an incentive to beef up figures.

WikiLeaks has released 250,000 US diplomatic cables, embarrassing a number of US allies and foes.

China's foreign ministry has refused to comment on individual cables that make reference to Beijing, describing the content of the website as "absurd".

Some of the documents contained allegations that China may have turned a blind eye to illicit exports of North Korean missile parts and that the top Chinese leadership orchestrated cyberattacks on Google and other US targets.

In one cable, Chinese officials are quoted as calling the erratic regime in Pyongyang -- China's close ally -- a "spoiled child".

earlier related report
China think tank warns inflation pressures building
Beijing (AFP) Dec 8, 2010 - A Chinese government think tank has warned inflationary pressures are building in the economy and consumer prices will remain "relatively high" in 2011, amid growing expectations of a rate hike.

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences also cautioned that the world's second-largest economy was at risk of overheating next year "if the growth speed is not controlled properly", Xinhua news agency said Wednesday.

The report came as Beijing brought forward the release of key economic data for November to Saturday from Monday, fuelling speculation that policymakers were planning to raise interest rates in the coming days.

"The inflationary pressure is building up and excess liquidity would be the major factor driving the CPI (consumer price index) up in the next several years," CASS said in its 2011 Economic Blue Paper.

The think tank forecast consumer prices to rise 3.2 percent over the entire year of 2010 -- above the government's full-year target for three percent -- and 3.3 percent next year.

"Surging grain prices in the international market and the rising cost of growing grains in China would keep the prices of consumer goods at a relatively high level," the report said.

Prices for manufactured goods were also expected to rise next year.

China on Friday pledged to shift its monetary policy stance to "prudent" from "relatively loose" next year, signalling new interest rate hikes were on the way.

The announcement came amid growing fears among officials and consumers over rising prices and soaring food costs.

China's consumer price index rose 4.4 percent year-on-year in October -- the fastest pace in more than two years -- with the prices of 18 types of vegetable increasing more than 60 percent.

Ever fearful of inflation's historical potential to spark unrest in China, Beijing has ordered a range of steps to ensure adequate supplies of key goods and offer financial help to the most needy.

The central bank last month ordered banks to raise the amount of money they must keep in reserve for the fifth time this year, after it announced in October the first interest rates hike in nearly three years.

CASS also forecast the economy to grow 9.9 percent this year before accelerating to around 10 percent in 2011 "with effective macroeconomic controls".

"If the growth speed is not controlled properly, the economy might grow at a rate of more than 10 percent, which would result in overheating and add pressure to economic growth in 2011," the report said.

The think tank's economic growth forecast for 2011 is higher than that of the World Bank, which expects growth to slow to 8.7 percent next year from an expected 10 percent this year.



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