Unleashing another barrage of punitive trade tariffs on thousands more Chinese products, President Donald Trump has shown he is willing to pursue hardline policies -- no matter the cost.

And as Trump's attacks on Germany at the NATO summit this week demonstrate, that aggressive strategy extends to allies as well as traditional rivals and to security as well as trade.

Stock markets over the last few days were recovering due to the view expressed by analysts, like JP Morgan and CFRA, that the initial salvos in the trade war were simply a "negotiating tactic."

But Tuesday's announcement that the administration would proceed with 10 percent tariffs on another $200 billion in Chinese goods as soon as September put an end to that more benign view, sending global markets tumbling on Wednesday.

That move comes on top of 25 percent duties on $34 billion in annual imports from China, with another $16 billion on the way, as well as steep tariffs on steel and aluminum from around the world.

And Trump has threatened to hit another $200 billion in goods from China, and put new taxes on auto imports, in a move largely aimed at Germany.

China, Mexico, Canada and the European Union have responded to each US move with retaliation of their own. Oxford Economics analyst Adam Slater said the total share of global trade facing high tariffs could rise to five percent.

Economists warn this poses a serious risk to the world economy, as it will depress investment and US growth and accelerate unemployment.

But with the economy growing by as much as four percent in the second quarter, unemployment at the lowest in a generation, and corporate profits soaring as a result of massive US tax cuts, Trump may feel comfortable ignoring those fears.

- Trump's Afghanistan -

With midterm elections coming in November, in which Trump's Republican Party could lose seats in Congress, he may be more focused on the short-term, playing to his political base.

Instead of careful diplomacy, Trump has been "doubling down" on abrasive tactics, said foreign policy expert Heather Conley of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

And because he needs to show his supporters he is getting something out of it, he will "just keep going and see who blinks first," she told AFP.

While Trump has thrown some verbal head fakes that have alternately horrified and comforted trading partners and US businesses, he has moved consistently towards a tougher stance as other governments failed to succumb to his threats.

"There is clearly a coherent world view behind this" policy, economist Adam Posen told AFP. "It's a coherent world view, if paranoiac."

But Posen, who heads the Peterson Institute for International Economics and formerly served on the Bank of England's monetary policy board, warns that the administration is taking on a multi-front war without any clear means of producing a victory.

Trade wars are "even more costly for the aggressor than military aggression usually is and the effects of an attack are even less predictable and controllable than traditional war," he warned.

"There is no scenario where inflicting economic pain on trading partners leads to a good outcome."

That disregard for the certainty of self-inflicted wounds could make this confrontation Trump's "economic Afghanistan -- costly, open-ended, and fruitless," Posen wrote in a recent op-ed.

- Geopolitical gambit -

Posen and others acknowledge that some of Trump's points are valid: many governments have long complained about China's lax protections for technology and even outright theft of intellectual property.

And Germany's high trade surplus for years has been a sore point within the EU and in transatlantic relations.

Trump also accused Germany of not bearing its fair share of the NATO defense costs and of over reliance on Russia for its energy needs.

But Conley said, "there is no overarching strategy when it comes to what the US is trying to do, how to shepherd resources and allies to go get it."

"He has an immediate need to do something now, but no sense of what are the cascading consequences."

And his aggressive strategy may damage US diplomatic efforts. The White House needs Beijing to pressure North Korea to denuclearize and would have more leverage over China to change its policies if it joined forces with the EU and others.

Instead, "Trump is willing to raise the ante until China capitulates," said Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell University.

"With the Chinese government in no mood to cave in to US demands, it is difficult to envision an exit path from an escalating trade war that could end up inflicting some damage on both economies."

Trump's many trade wars: a summary
Washington (AFP) July 11, 2018 - The United States has launched what China calls the "largest trade war in economic history" and in its latest move targeted another $200 billion in Chinese export goods.

The US-China spat is one of several trade fights picked by the protectionist President Donald Trump as his "America First" agenda disrupts trade relations among traditional allies.

The growing share of international trade under threat has raised the prospect the escalating trade war could harm the global economy, shrinking investments and undermining supply chains. World stocks again tumbled on Wednesday.

Here is a summary of Trump's multi-front trade conflicts:

- China -

After weeks of apparently fruitless negotiations, the United States on Friday imposed 25 percent tariffs on approximately $34 billion of Chinese products, sparking an immediate response from Beijing, which said it would hit back dollar for dollar.

A second tranche of $16 billion in products is under review and could soon be added to the US measures.

That volley now appears to have marked only the opening shots in a churning trade war. Trump has warned he could ratchet his measures up to $450 billion in Chinese imports -- the vast majority of what China sells to the United States in a year -- if Beijing continues to retaliate.

The US tariffs which took effect this month target a wide range of Chinese goods -- including aircraft parts and computer hard drives -- that Washington says have benefited from unfair trade practices.

China's has hit back dollar-for-dollar, largely targeting agricultural products designed to hurt Trump supporters.

The US Trade Representative on July 10 identified a sprawling list of more than 6,000 product categories that could be hit with 10 percent import duties as soon as September. The goods to be hit are as varied as fish, grains, luggage, plywood, carpets, stone, ceramics and glass as well as products made from copper and nickel.

China again vowed to strike back with more countermeasures. Beijing also has filed a complaint in the World Trade Organization against the US actions.

- European Union -

On June 1, Trump made good on several months of threats and imposed tariffs of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum from the EU, Canada and Mexico.

Trump has said the European Union is "possibly almost as bad as China" when it comes to trade, as a raft of retaliatory tariffs from Brussels came into effect on June 22.

From blue jeans to motorbikes and whiskey, the EU's hit-list of products targeted the most emblematic of American exports.

Europe also is worried Washington will follow up on a threat to impose punitive levies on imported cars, something the powerful German car industry particularly fears.

However, signs of a possible thaw emerged on July 5 when the US ambassador in Berlin told bosses at Germany's biggest car firms that Washington was calling on the EU to bring tariffs to zero on car imports -- in exchange for equal treatment.

- Canada and Mexico -

Canada and Mexico, members of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with the US, have not been spared the Washington offensive on steel and aluminum and have imposed their own counter-tariffs on US goods.

Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau traded barbs over the steel tariffs at a farcical summit of the Group of Seven richest countries last month.

Meanwhile talks among the three NAFTA signatories, launched after Trump demanded an overhaul of the "terrible deal," have snagged notably owing to US demands to increase American content installed in duty-free autos.

However, Mexico's firebrand President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, known as "AMLO," has vowed to work with the US to revise the trade pact.

- Japan -

Japan is another target of Trump's steel tariffs, which Tokyo calls "extremely deplorable."

The country has informed the WTO it plans to impose retaliatory measures on US goods to the tune of 50 billion yen (395 million euros, $455 million), after failing to persuade Washington to exempt it from the tariffs.

- South Korea -

In March, Washington and Seoul announced an agreement on a revised version of their bilateral free trade accord, giving US carmakers greater access to the South Korean market.

Trump argued the original deal from 2012 was lopsided in Seoul's favor, but has also clouded the issue by appearing to link trade concessions to progress in his separate track of talks with nuclear-armed North Korea.

- Russia -

Russia, also hit by the US steel tariffs, announced Friday it was imposing its own 25 percent tariffs on some US goods.

Trade relations were already strained by US sanctions targeting oligarchs and businesses accused of supporting President Vladimir Putin's alleged efforts to undermine Western democracies.

- Iran -

Trump announced in May he was abandoning the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran -- which will mean new sanctions on Tehran and punitive measures for those who trade with it.

Several companies -- including Total and Peugeot of France, and Russia's Lukoil -- have said they are preparing to exit Iran ahead of US deadlines, the last of which is November 4.

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