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POLITICAL ECONOMY
US economy needs 'more medicine': Obama aide
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) Nov 29, 2011


A top advisor to President Barack Obama said Tuesday the fragile US economy needed "more medicine," stepping up a campaign for the extension of payroll tax cuts by a fractious Congress.

Alan Krueger, chairman of Obama's Council on Economic Advisors, said that the cuts in the amount Americans must pay to finance retirement and medical insurance for the elderly had provided important support for the economy.

"This is a critical time for the economy, and I think it's a time where the economy can use more medicine to strengthen and sustain the recovery," he said.

Obama signed a two percentage point cut in payroll taxes last year, and Krueger said the move had bolstered the economy against outside shocks, including rising gas prices, European debt turmoil and the Japanese tsunami tragedy.

As part of his $447 billion jobs plan, Obama proposed further cutting the payroll tax for employees to 3.1 percent of earnings and to halve the employer contribution from 6.2 percent to 3.1 percent in a bid to spur hiring.

The administration says the move would give Americans earning $50,000 a year a $1,500 tax cut next year as compared to a $1,000 tax hike if Congress does not extend the benefit by its expiry date at the end of this year.

"I think the economic argument for these proposals is quite compelling," Krueger said.

"I think across the spectrum of economists you would find support for applying this type of medicine to the economy now."

An initial Senate vote on extending the payroll tax, likely the first step in a new spate of political grandstanding, is expected this week.

The issue, the latest bitter row between Obama's Democrats and Republicans over taxing the rich, is evolving into a pre-Christmas showdown on Capitol Hill along with White House demands for an extension of unemployment insurance (UI).

Some Republicans are opposed to extending the payroll tax cut because they argue it does not stimulate the economy as much as an income tax cut would.

Democrats counter that the payroll tax cut is felt most by low-income earners who tend to immediately spend any extra cash, maximizing the measure's stimulatory impact.

Congressional Democrats want to pay for the tax cut by levying a 3.25 percent surtax on people earning $1 million -- a proposal Republicans reject, arguing it would slow the economy and hurt small business owners.

But Republicans, who have enough votes to block Democratic measures in the Senate, plan to offer their own plan to offset the cost of the payroll tax cut with other spending reductions.

"In the end, it will have to be worked out in a joint negotiation between a Democratic Senate and a Republican House," said Senate Republican minority leader Mitch McConnell.

Obama is due to travel to Scranton, Pennsylvania -- a fabled stronghold of blue collar, white voters, with whom he has sometimes struggled to connect -- to push his proposal for a payroll tax cut extension on Wednesday.

The White House has so far refused to say whether Obama will veto a bill that extends the payroll tax cut, but does not pay for it with Democratic proposals for a tax on millionaires.

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Japan factory output rebounds in October
Tokyo, Japan (AFP) Nov 30, 2011 - Japan's industrial production rose 2.4 percent in October, government data showed Wednesday, doubling market expectations and reversing a factory output drop in the previous month.

"The October headline number came in a lot stronger than expected and was a positive surprise," said Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at SMBC Nikko Securities.

The month-on-month rise reversed September's revised 3.3 percent decline, the first drop in six months after Japan's devastating March earthquake and tsunami pounded factory production.

The latest figures also beat market expectations of a 1.2 percent increase with the government saying the transport, machinery and chemical sectors contributed most to October's rise.

Within specific sectors, output in the transportation sector was up 11.6 percent from September as automakers ramped up vehicle output.

On Tuesday, government data showed the nation's retail sales rose for the first time in three months, while household spending was also stronger than expected.

The uptick was driven by a near 23 percent jump in auto sales on year, as pent up demand was unplugged after months of falling sales in the wake of the March natural disasters.

A government survey of producers forecasts Japan's industrial output to edge down 0.1 percent in November but then rise 2.7 percent in December.

Japan fell into a trade deficit in October, reversing a year-earlier surplus, as the eurozone debt crisis and a strong yen weighed on exporters, while record flooding in Thailand pounded the operations of Japanese automakers and electronics firms with plants in the country.

Toyota and others withdrew earnings forecasts as they assessed the scale of disruption, which came as Japanese firms were near to restoring output to normal levels at home after the quake-tsunami shattered component supply chains.

"The impact of the Thai floods on the auto industry is apparently less than initially feared as far as the October results and the November forecast can tell," Iwashita said.

However, Naoki Murakami, chief economist at securities firm Monex, questioned whether producers would meet their December factory forecast given the country's slowing exports.

"It is uncertain whether the (December) plan will be achieved," he said.

"The impact of the slowing global economy is yet to become obvious but there are risks that production would be weighed down if a European recession affects the rest of the world."



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POLITICAL ECONOMY
Outside View: Be wary of U.S. treasuries
College Park, Md. (UPI) Nov 29, 2011
The supercommittee's failure to compromise on $1.2 trillion in budget savings won't much affect the deficit and U.S. credit ratings - or the interest rates and prices of U.S. treasuries. Still investors should limit holdings of those securities - the long-term outlook isn't good. Although the supercommittee didn't reach consensus on a combination of spending cuts and tax hikes, the Bu ... read more


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