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TRADE WARS
US restrictions on Chinese investment next front in trade dispute
By Heather SCOTT
Washington (AFP) June 25, 2018

Mnuchin rebuts reports on new China investment restrictions
Washington (AFP) June 26, 2018 - US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Monday denounced media reports detailing plans to impose restrictions on Chinese investment in US companies and on tech exports to China.

The reports were widely cited Monday as helping to spark a global stocks selloff, with investors increasingly gloomy about the prospects of de-escalation in the emerging US-China trade war.

The White House in late May announced plans to impose steep tariffs on Chinese goods, and follow up by June 30 with "specific investment restrictions and enhanced export controls for Chinese persons and entities related to the acquisition of industrially significant technology."

The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg News cited several sources saying the heightened US scrutiny of Chinese investment would fall under emergency national security powers.

The law in question, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, allows the president to regulate trade in response to foreign threats and has frequently been used to respond to armed conflict, weapons and narcotics trafficking and political instability.

The Wall Street Journal also said the investment restrictions would apply to companies with 25 percent Chinese ownership.

But Mnuchin said Monday the news reports were "false, fake news."

"The leaker either doesn't exist or know the subject very well," he said on Twitter.

"Statement will be out not specific to China but to all countries that are trying to steal our technology," Mnuchin said, even though that seems to contradict the White House statement issued May 29.

- Continued escalation -

US officials accuse China of using cyber-theft and forced transfers to steal the "crown jewels" of American innovation, allowing their own industries to advance unfairly.

Beijing on Monday said Chinese investment has created jobs and increased tax revenue in the US.

"China-US trade, investment and cooperation are mutually beneficial in nature," Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said at press conference.

"We hope the US can view Chinese companies' commercial activities in an objective way, and provide a fair, sound and predictable investment environment," Geng said.

The White House this month pressed ahead with plans to impose up to $50 billion on Chinese goods starting July 6.

The goods targeted are those US officials say are tied to Beijing's "Made in China 2025" industrial development plan to achieve global dominance in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotics, aeronautics and new-energy vehicles.

After Beijing announced it would retaliate, Trump threatened another $200 billion in Chinese goods that could be subject to fresh tariffs and said this could rise by $200 billion if China responded further.

China, also affected by US steel tariffs, has denounced Trump's approach as "extreme pressure and blackmail," warning it would "take strong, powerful countermeasures" if the president enacts his threats.

The tensions, which for weeks have struck fear into the hearts of global investors, add to those sparked by the trade dispute between the United States and the European Union.

President Donald Trump this week is due to launch the next phase of his economic confrontation with Beijing, with new restrictions possible on Chinese investments to clamp down on access to sensitive American technologies.

That could open US firms like Apple and General Motors up to new forms of retaliation from China and experts worry it also marks another step in government intervention in the free market, a "radical departure" for the United States that could prove mutually destructive.

But contradictory statements Monday from senior US officials have muddied the waters on what path the White House will take.

Trump has threatened to strike back against China's retaliation to the US tariffs that are due to take effect July 6 -- potentially escalating the tariffs to $450 billion in Chinese goods.

Meanwhile, later this week, the Treasury Department is due to unveil a proposal on investment and export restrictions.

Trump in late May announced plans to impose steep tariffs on Chinese goods, and to follow up by June 30 with "specific investment restrictions and enhanced export controls" on Chinese companies and investors in "industrially significant technology."

According The Wall Street Journal, the measures likely would target investments in the United States by any firm that is 25 percent Chinese held, although that threshold could drop if the investment is considered sensitive.

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin vehemently denied the reports by Bloomberg and The Journal as "false, fake news."

"The leaker either doesn't exist or know the subject very well. Statement will be out not specific to China but to all countries that are trying to steal our technology," Mnuchin said on Twitter, noting he was responding for Trump.

However, that contradicts the White House's own May 29 statement which specified that new measures would target China.

US stocks on Monday briefly fell more than two percent from Friday's close and senior White House economic adviser Peter Navarro appeared on television to try to calm investor fears about a possible trade war.

However, his confusing interview to CNBC did little to clarify the situation, as he said the administration was "not singling out China" but also that Treasury would release a report on Friday on the issue of investment restrictions on China.

He said investors should be bullish on the US economy, claiming Trump's aggressive trade maneuvers had created new domestic investment.

The economy "is going to a beautiful place right now," Navarro said on CNBC. "It's something you could only dream about."

After his comments, stocks recovered some ground and the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average closed with a loss of 1.3 percent, or 325 points.

- China 2025 -

Trump has blamed past US administrations for being soft on China and allowing the country to become dominant in manufacturing, and for failing to protect sensitive technologies.

The administration could expand existing authorities for the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, or CFIUS, which is led by the Treasury and which already has blocked some Chinese investments in ports and semiconductors.

Even the hint of a possible CFIUS review can kill a potential investment. Congress also is looking at ways to tighten the investment review process.

According to the Rhodium Group, a research firm, Chinese investment in the United States fell 35 percent in 2017 from the record $45.6 billion in 2016, and has slowed to a trickle, just $1.4 billion in the first quarter of this year.

New export controls would make it more difficult for US firms to sell technology to China if Washington deems it to be "industrially significant."

US officials have highlighted Beijing's "Made in China 2025" industrial development plan as a source of concern since they say it is a map for dominating key high tech industries from space to telecommunications to robotics to electric cars.

- Few 'off ramps' -

As tensions continue to escalate, trade experts warn there are fewer options to resolve the dispute.

"I think that there are very few remaining off ramps for rising tensions," said China expert Martin Chorzempa of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

"There are serious structural concerns about Chinese practices that cannot be resolved without trust between the negotiating partners" and that trust is eroding in the current confrontation, he told AFP.

He warned that Beijing had an "enormous array of tools to put pressure on American companies" like Apple and GM, companies that really depend on China. That could include holding goods in ports or hold up approvals.

The decision of the government to take a direct hand in corporate investment decisions under the pretext of national security is "a radical departure from the way we have engaged in economic governance," Chorzempa said.


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