University of Colorado climate experts Philip Klotzbach and William Gray said on the eve of the official June 1 opening of the six-month Atlantic storm season that there was an above-average risk of a major hurricane landfall in the Caribbean Sea, and that the US east coast was under a much higher-than-average risk of being struck.

Klotzbach and Gray said they expected in all 17 tropical storms to be generated during the Atlantic season, including nine hurricanes.

The researchers said five hurricanes are likely to become "intense" storms, those classified as Class 3 or higher on the five-point Saffir-Simpson scale. Level three storms on the scale have driving winds of at least 111 miles (178 kilometers) per hour, capable of knocking down large trees and destroying mobile homes.

Their forecast falls roughly within the median of the 1950-2000 period and is line with a prediction of four to six major hurricanes by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The forecast, if correct, would represent a sharp downturn too from last year's 28 storms, 15 of which became hurricanes, including the super-storms Katrina and Rita which devastated the US Gulf of Mexico coastline.

But the scientists said the danger of landfall in the Caribbean and the US coastlines was significantly higher than the historical average, according to their modeling.

"Conditions in the tropical Atlantic Ocean have become somewhat more favorable for an active hurricane season," they said in a new report.

Weaker trade winds have produced "anomalous warming" in the tropical Atlantic region since early April, they said.

"We therefore continue to expect that another very active hurricane season is likely for the Atlantic basin."

The two said the possibility of a hurricane strike on the US east coast, including Florida, was 69 percent, more than double the historical average of 31 percent.

For the US Gulf coast, which felt the brunt of last year's storms, the risk of landfall was 38 percent, only slightly higher that the historical average of 30 percent.

Their forecast last year was sharply below what actually took place in the record-breaking season: 11 tropical storms and six hurricanes were forecast against the 28 storms and 15 hurricanes (seven intense) that eventually formed.

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