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POLITICAL ECONOMY
World Bank cuts China, East Asia growth forecasts
by Staff Writers
Singapore (AFP) Oct 06, 2014


China kicks out 160,000 fake government staff: report
Beijing (AFP) Oct 06, 2014 - China has taken 160,000 "phantom" government staff off its official payroll who were receiving salaries despite not doing any work, state-media reported on Monday.

A total of 162,629 officials who were taking government wages without working have been removed in a nationwide campaign over the last year, the People's Daily newspaper said.

The province of Hebei in northern China saw the largest number of such officials, according to the paper, with nearly 56,000 identified.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has launched a high-profile campaign against rampant corruption and misuse of government funds, in the face of widespread public anger.

Critics say the campaign has been hampered by a lack of fundamental reforms, such as the creation of an independent legal system.

"The problem of government staff receiving salaries without working has been one of the problems most keenly reported by cadres," the People's Daily said.

China's official Xinhua news agency called the sacked workers "phantom officials".

So far no such "phantom officials" have been found in the commercial hub of Shanghai or in Tibet, the People's Daily added.

The officials involved would be punished, it said, without giving details.

Chinese economy slowing down, World Bank says
Washington (UPI) Oct 6, 2014 - The economies of East Asia will slow down, but still grow next year, though energy-hungry China will decelerate, the World Bank said Monday.

East Asian economies should experience a slower economic growth rate this year, but the pace picks up in 2015. For China, growth drops from 7.4 percent to 7.2 percent in 2015 as Beijing works to address financial vulnerabilities and build a more sustainable economic model, the bank said.

"East Asia-Pacific will continue to have the potential to grow at a higher rate -- and faster than other developing regions -- if policy makers implement an ambitious domestic reform agenda, which includes removing barriers to domestic investment, improving export competitiveness and rationalizing public spending," Axel van Trotsenburg, World Bank regional vice president, said in a statement.

In general, Asian economies are growing faster than the rest of the world, which in turn is tilting the poles of energy demand away from a North America relying more on its oil and gas reserves to satisfy its needs.

The International Energy Agency in its September oil market report trimmed oil demand growth for 2014 to 900,000 barrels of oil per day and 2015 to 1.2 million bpd.

IEA said the assessment was made "because of a pronounced slowdown in demand growth in the second quarter of this year and a weaker outlook for Europe and China."

Chinese economy slowing down, World Bank says
Washington (UPI) Oct 6 - The economies of East Asia will slow down, but still grow next year, though energy-hungry China will decelerate, the World Bank said Monday.

East Asian economies should experience a slower economic growth rate this year, but the pace picks up in 2015. For China, growth drops from 7.4 percent to 7.2 percent in 2015 as Beijing works to address financial vulnerabilities and build a more sustainable economic model, the bank said.

"East Asia-Pacific will continue to have the potential to grow at a higher rate -- and faster than other developing regions -- if policy makers implement an ambitious domestic reform agenda, which includes removing barriers to domestic investment, improving export competitiveness and rationalizing public spending," Axel van Trotsenburg, World Bank regional vice president, said in a statement.

In general, Asian economies are growing faster than the rest of the world, which in turn is tilting the poles of energy demand away from a North America relying more on its oil and gas reserves to satisfy its needs.

The World Bank on Monday trimmed its growth forecasts for developing East Asian economies this year and next, as China's economic expansion loses momentum and policymakers face tighter global monetary conditions.

Developing countries in East Asia and the Pacific are likely to see a growth of 6.9 percent this year and in 2015, slower than the 7.1 percent the bank had forecast in April, it said in an updated report.

China's economy is forecast to grow 7.4 percent this year and 7.2 percent next year, compared with 7.6 percent and 7.5 percent projected in April as the government addresses financial vulnerabilities and structural constraints. China's economy expanded 7.7 percent in 2013.

But the bank's chief Asia economist Suhdir Shetty said China's slowdown is unlikely to be "dramatic" enough to have a major impact on the region.

"China's slowdown is gradual.. It is slower but it's not the bottom falling out of China's growth," he told reporters in Singapore.

He also said that the link between the giant Chinese economy and the rest of Asia does not only involve demand, which is expected to weaken due to the slowdown.

China's links also involve investments which could even increase to parts of Asia as Chinese companies venture out of the country, Shetty said.

Developing East Asian countries, excluding China, are expected to grow 4.8 percent this year and 5.3 percent in 2015 from 5.2 percent in 2013.

- 'Unchartered waters' -

Growth in Southeast Asia's five biggest economies -- Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam -- is forecast to slow down to 4.5 percent this year from 5.0 percent in 2013, but is likely to pick up and expand 5.0 percent next year as demand for exports grow.

"The good news for the ASEAN Five is that there will be a period of rising demand for their exports," Shetty said, adding however that these countries must continue to implement structural reforms, invest in infrastructure and improve their investment climate in order to sustain growth.

Indonesia is expected to grow 5.2 percent this year and 5.6 percent next year from 5.8 percent in 2013.

Malaysia's growth is forecast to rise to 5.7 percent this year from 4.7 percent last year, before easing to 4.9 percent in 2015.

The Philippines is forecast to expand at 6.4 percent this year and 6.7 percent in 2015 from 7.2 percent in 2013.

Thailand is likely to grow 1.5 percent this year and 3.5 percent next year from 2.9 percent in 2013 as the political situation stabilises.

Vietnam is expected to grow 5.4 percent this year and 5.5 percent next year. It expanded 5.4 percent in 2013.

Shetty said a key risk for regional economies is a "disorderly" tightening of monetary policy in the United States, Europe and Japan which would lead to a steep rise in interest rates.

He said there was no reason to doubt that a tightening of monetary policy in the developed economies would be gradual, but there was also a risk that it could be abrupt.

"To be completely frank, these are unchartered waters... Yes, there is a possibility it will happen in a disorderly fashion and that's when there could be risks," he said.

Sharply higher interest rates could lead to a reduction in capital flows and affect countries which are dependent on them to finance their deficits, he said.

Higher rates could hurt the property markets in several countries, he added.

Bank of Japan strikes less-optimistic tone on economy
Tokyo (AFP) Oct 07, 2014 - The Bank of Japan on Tuesday struck a less optimistic tone on its view of the world's number three economy, but it held off launching fresh monetary easing measures after a two-day meeting.

The central bank, which has been upbeat on Japan's prospects, flagged housing and industrial production as weak spots in a statement outlining its unanimous decision.

It added that an uptick in business sentiment has "paused" on the back of an April sales tax hike that led to a sharp contraction in second-quarter gross domestic product.

"Japan's economy has continued to recover moderately as a trend," the BoJ statement said, but it noted "some weakness, particularly on the production side" as demand dived after the introduction of April's sales tax hike.

Investors will now turn their focus to governor Haruhiko Kuroda's post-meeting comments as speculation increases that the BoJ will be forced to act as the economy continues to struggle.

Kuroda's upbeat take on Japan's economy has appeared increasingly at odds with the official data, as Japan's economy suffered in the April-June quarter its deepest contraction since the 2011 quake-tsunami.

The rise was seen as crucial to chopping a mammoth public debt but economists warned it could derail a budding recovery in an economy beset by years of deflation.

The 1.8 percent dip in gross domestic product -- or a 7.1 percent contraction at an annualised rate -- gave the clearest picture yet of the tax hike's impact, and threw into question Tokyo's plans for another rise next year.

Millions of shoppers made a last-minute dash to stores before prices went up on April 1, which was followed by a slump in spending.

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