|
. | . |
|
by Staff Writers Singapore (AFP) Oct 06, 2014
The World Bank on Monday trimmed its growth forecasts for developing East Asian economies this year and next, as China's economic expansion loses momentum and policymakers face tighter global monetary conditions. Developing countries in East Asia and the Pacific are likely to see a growth of 6.9 percent this year and in 2015, slower than the 7.1 percent the bank had forecast in April, it said in an updated report. China's economy is forecast to grow 7.4 percent this year and 7.2 percent next year, compared with 7.6 percent and 7.5 percent projected in April as the government addresses financial vulnerabilities and structural constraints. China's economy expanded 7.7 percent in 2013. But the bank's chief Asia economist Suhdir Shetty said China's slowdown is unlikely to be "dramatic" enough to have a major impact on the region. "China's slowdown is gradual.. It is slower but it's not the bottom falling out of China's growth," he told reporters in Singapore. He also said that the link between the giant Chinese economy and the rest of Asia does not only involve demand, which is expected to weaken due to the slowdown. China's links also involve investments which could even increase to parts of Asia as Chinese companies venture out of the country, Shetty said. Developing East Asian countries, excluding China, are expected to grow 4.8 percent this year and 5.3 percent in 2015 from 5.2 percent in 2013. - 'Unchartered waters' - Growth in Southeast Asia's five biggest economies -- Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam -- is forecast to slow down to 4.5 percent this year from 5.0 percent in 2013, but is likely to pick up and expand 5.0 percent next year as demand for exports grow. "The good news for the ASEAN Five is that there will be a period of rising demand for their exports," Shetty said, adding however that these countries must continue to implement structural reforms, invest in infrastructure and improve their investment climate in order to sustain growth. Indonesia is expected to grow 5.2 percent this year and 5.6 percent next year from 5.8 percent in 2013. Malaysia's growth is forecast to rise to 5.7 percent this year from 4.7 percent last year, before easing to 4.9 percent in 2015. The Philippines is forecast to expand at 6.4 percent this year and 6.7 percent in 2015 from 7.2 percent in 2013. Thailand is likely to grow 1.5 percent this year and 3.5 percent next year from 2.9 percent in 2013 as the political situation stabilises. Vietnam is expected to grow 5.4 percent this year and 5.5 percent next year. It expanded 5.4 percent in 2013. Shetty said a key risk for regional economies is a "disorderly" tightening of monetary policy in the United States, Europe and Japan which would lead to a steep rise in interest rates. He said there was no reason to doubt that a tightening of monetary policy in the developed economies would be gradual, but there was also a risk that it could be abrupt. "To be completely frank, these are unchartered waters... Yes, there is a possibility it will happen in a disorderly fashion and that's when there could be risks," he said. Sharply higher interest rates could lead to a reduction in capital flows and affect countries which are dependent on them to finance their deficits, he said. Higher rates could hurt the property markets in several countries, he added.
Bank of Japan strikes less-optimistic tone on economy The central bank, which has been upbeat on Japan's prospects, flagged housing and industrial production as weak spots in a statement outlining its unanimous decision. It added that an uptick in business sentiment has "paused" on the back of an April sales tax hike that led to a sharp contraction in second-quarter gross domestic product. "Japan's economy has continued to recover moderately as a trend," the BoJ statement said, but it noted "some weakness, particularly on the production side" as demand dived after the introduction of April's sales tax hike. Investors will now turn their focus to governor Haruhiko Kuroda's post-meeting comments as speculation increases that the BoJ will be forced to act as the economy continues to struggle. Kuroda's upbeat take on Japan's economy has appeared increasingly at odds with the official data, as Japan's economy suffered in the April-June quarter its deepest contraction since the 2011 quake-tsunami. The rise was seen as crucial to chopping a mammoth public debt but economists warned it could derail a budding recovery in an economy beset by years of deflation. The 1.8 percent dip in gross domestic product -- or a 7.1 percent contraction at an annualised rate -- gave the clearest picture yet of the tax hike's impact, and threw into question Tokyo's plans for another rise next year. Millions of shoppers made a last-minute dash to stores before prices went up on April 1, which was followed by a slump in spending.
Related Links The Economy
|
|
The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2014 - Space Media Network. All websites are published in Australia and are solely subject to Australian law and governed by Fair Use principals for news reporting and research purposes. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA news reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement, agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement All images and articles appearing on Space Media Network have been edited or digitally altered in some way. Any requests to remove copyright material will be acted upon in a timely and appropriate manner. Any attempt to extort money from Space Media Network will be ignored and reported to Australian Law Enforcement Agencies as a potential case of financial fraud involving the use of a telephonic carriage device or postal service. |