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World Bank sees shrinking China exports in 2009
Beijing (AFP) April 7, 2009 China's exports are likely to shrink in 2009 due to the effects of the global crisis, but the economy as a whole will probably pick up in the second half of the year, the World Bank said Tuesday. The World Bank said in a regional report that the Chinese government was in a good position to increase fiscal spending and loosen monetary policies to make up for the contraction of key markets abroad, thus boosting growth. "China cannot escape the external weakness," the World Bank said in a report released simultaneously in several Asian capitals. "In light of the very weak external outlook, we expect China's exports to shrink in 2009." Louis Kuijs, a senior economist in the World Bank's Beijing office, said its prediction for falling exports was in terms of volume exported. The nation's exports have not declined since 1983, according to Chinese data, which are not directly comparable, as they measure trade in value, not volume. Even so, China was a "bright spot" in the region, with signs that its economic downturn will bottom out, the World Bank report said. "Unless there is a further intensification of the contraction in global demand, or global financial tensions flare up again, growth in China will pick up in the second half of the year, partly offsetting the weak first half," it said. The bank maintained a forecast released last month of growth this year in the Chinese economy of 6.5 percent, the lowest level since 1990. China's economy last year expanded by nine percent. Overall, China had fared better than many other countries in the crisis, because it does not rely on financing from abroad and its banks have been left largely unscathed by the global turmoil, the bank said. Another important factor was a government capable of implementing "forceful stimulus measures", including a four-trillion-yuan (590-billion-dollar) spending package announced in November, it said. The bank argued that China was in a position to further expand policies to stimulate growth. "Recent initiatives to stimulate consumption and improve people's livelihood by expanding the government's role and spending on health, education, and social safety are very welcome, and there is room to do more," it said. "Subdued inflation prospects imply space for continued expansionary monetary policy." The Chinese government this week kicked off a healthcare programme, aimed at providing universal basic coverage by 2020. Share This Article With Planet Earth
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