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World Steel Output Soars; Hong Kong Tightens Luxury Home Lending

Europe stumbles as Chinese economy surges
Recession is proving hard to shake off for Europe's richest economies, new data showed on Thursday, with low consumer spending, budget deficits and slow exports pointing to tough times ahead. Add to that a stronger euro that is making eurozone exports more expensive and new data showing the eurozone's balance of payments falling back into negative territory and the picture appears darker still, analysts said. The balance of payments is a key measure of global economic power and the deficit for August reported by the European Central Bank comes after the data showed a surplus in July for the first time in more than a year. "We expect the strongest upturn to be in Asia (excluding Japan), with the US outpacing most other industrial countries - while Japan, the euro area and UK recover most slowly," analysts at banking giant Citigroup said in a note.

The new European data came as China reported that its third-quarter growth accelerated to 8.9 percent - the fastest pace in a year - as the economy powered up an expansion built on a flood of stimulus cash and bank lending. The International Monetary Fund earlier this month forecast that next year China's economy will grow by 9.0 percent, the US economy by 1.5 percent and the 16-nation eurozone economy by just 0.3 percent. Economic data from individual European countries made for downbeat reading on Thursday, with British retail sales posting zero growth, Italian and Spanish exports sharply down and French business confidence only edging up. "Consumers are holding back on any spending splurges as retail sales came in weaker than expected," said Manoj Ladwa, a trader at London-based financial spread betting company ETX Capital, referring to the retail data. Retail sales were disappointing in Italy too, where they fell 0.1 percent in August from July due to a fall in food purchases.

Clothes, furniture and electronics sales were also sharply down compared to August 2008. Meanwhile Italy's trade deficit with countries outside the European Union fell sharply in September to 513 million euros (768 million dollars) from 3.275 billion euros thanks mainly to a steeper fall in imports than in exports. Italy's imports from non-EU countries were down 29.4 percent in September compared to the same month last year, while exports were 14.8 percent lower. Spain showed a similar picture, with total imports falling 26 percent in August from August last year, while exports slowed by 16.9 percent. The outlook was brighter in France, where a business confidence index that reached its lowest point in March edged up three points to 89 points for October - still well below its long-term average of 100 points. "This shows the French economy and industry have not just come out of recession but are headed to cruising speed, which is still sluggish growth," said Marc Touati from financial services company Global Equities in Paris. Amid a sluggish recovery, Europeam firms reported more job cuts. British pharma company GlaxoSmithKline said it would cut 434 more jobs in France on top of the 750 layoffs already announced and German chemicals giant BASF announced the closure of a plant in Belgium with the loss of 133 jobs.

by Staff Writers
Paris (AFP) Oct 23, 2009
The surge in China's steel production has brought the global output level close to what it was before the start of the global economic crisis, the World Steel Association said on Friday.

Production in the 66 members of the association, which includes the main metal producers in the world, has been growing since April and was 0.6 percent lower in September than in September 2008 at 107 million tons, it said.

Output in China grew 28.7 percent in September on a 12-month comparison to 50.7 million tons, while Japan's output was down 18 percent, Germany's was 21.7 percent lower and the US level was 31.4 percent below last year's.

Global steel production for the first nine months of this year was 866 million tons -- 16.4 percent lower than for the same period in 2008.

related report
China's economy revs up with 8.9 pct growth in Q3
China said Thursday its third-quarter growth accelerated to 8.9 percent -- the fastest pace in a year -- as the economy powered up an expansion built on a flood of stimulus cash and bank lending.

The world's third-largest economy is on course to meet a government target of 8.0 percent growth for 2009 -- seen as vital to foster job creation and ward off social unrest in the nation of 1.3 billion people.

But analysts said China -- a vital cog in the sputtering world economy -- must seek broader avenues of growth beyond the hundreds of billions of dollars injected by government this year.

The 8.9 percent growth revealed by the National Bureau of Statistics was the fastest quarterly expansion in a year. It followed 7.9 percent in the second quarter and 6.1 percent in the first three months, which was the slowest in more than a decade.

China's gross domestic product grew 7.7 percent in the first nine months of 2009 compared with the same period a year ago, after growing 7.1 percent in the first half, the data showed.

"We are sure that we can achieve the full year target of eight percent. There is no question about it," bureau spokesman Li Xiaochao told reporters.

But he warned of lingering major challenges in resolving imbalances in the export-driven economy, saying China had entered a "crucial stage" in its quest for stable growth.

"The basis of the economic recovery still needs to be consolidated," Li said.

The problem of insufficient foreign demand for goods produced by China's vital manufacturing sector remained "severe", he said, while "expanding domestic demand and (making) structural adjustments remain an arduous task".

Before the global crisis, China enjoyed double digit growth from 2003 to 2007 and in the first two quarters of 2008.

The turnaround has been underpinned by an unprecedented four-trillion-yuan (586-billion-dollar) stimulus package unveiled last November and 7.4 trillion yuan in bank lending in the first half of 2009.

China is the world's fastest growing major economy and its recovery is considered vital to dragging the United States and Europe out of the worst crisis in decades.

Ren Xianfang, a Beijing-based economist at IHS Global Insight, said China's accelerating growth would boost sentiment on global markets but would have "limited" impact on the real economy due to its weak imports.

"Although we have been seeing rising imports of raw materials, other imports have been quite restrained," Ren told AFP.

Analysts said Beijing's stimulus-based strategy was working well at home, but cautioned it was not sustainable in the long term.

"The Chinese economy has taken off, but it is flying on one engine," Brian Jackson, a senior strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong, told AFP.

"China's recovery has been impressive but it has been heavily reliant on government-directed investment funded by aggressive bank lending. To keep the economy moving at a fast pace, we need to see a more broad-based recovery."

Dariusz Kowalczyk, Hong Kong-based chief investment strategist at SJS Markets, predicted growth around 12 percent in the fourth quarter.

"The numbers are showing that the economy is growing very fast and I would say the trend should remain upwards," Kowalczyk told AFP.

"For the whole year, China will definitely exceed the government's target (of eight percent)."

Late Wednesday Beijing expressed confidence in the economic outlook -- switching tack after saying weeks ago that recovery was not stable.

"In the past three quarters... China's economic and social development situation has done better than forecast at the beginning of the year," the State Council, or cabinet, said after a meeting headed by Premier Wen Jiabao.

China's urban fixed asset investment, a measure of government spending on infrastructure and a key driver of recovery, rose 33.3 percent year on year in the first nine months, the statistics bureau said.

Retail sales gathered pace in September, jumping 15.5 percent year on year, compared with August's increase of 15.4 percent.

The consumer price index, the main gauge of inflation, fell 1.1 percent in the first nine months compared with the same period a year earlier.

Industrial output, which shows activity in the nation's factories and workshops, expanded 8.7 percent in the January-September period, the bureau said.

Despite the recovery, China would maintain its loose monetary policy "until greater inflationary pressure and a sustained recovery in exports become apparent", said Jing Ulrich, managing director and chairman of China equities and commodities at JP Morgan.

earlier related report
Hong Kong tightens lending on luxury homes
Hong Kong's government has announced measures aimed at cooling the property market as low interest rates have spurred a dramatic surge in prices and fears of a possible bubble.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority said it had sent a circular to banks on Friday telling them to cut the amount they lend to buyers of luxury homes with immediate effect.

Loans on properties valued at 20 million dollars (2.6 million US) or more would be capped at 60 percent, down from 70 percent. For cheaper properties the maximum loan would remain 70 percent but would be capped at 12 million dollars.

The HKMA, Hong Kong's de facto central bank, also reminded banks to exercise prudence when valuing properties and calculating borrowers' ability to repay loans.

"These are prudential measures designed in the interest of maintaining banking stability, to enhance banks' risk management on mortgage lending to high-end residential properties," HKMA chief executive Norman Chan said in a statement.

Record-low interest rates have helped drive up prices by 41 percent in the luxury property sector while the mass-market segment has risen more than 27 percent, according to property agencies and consultants cited by the South China Morning Post.

The government-owned Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation meanwhile announced that from Saturday it would stop offering insurance to property investors and reduce its maximum mortgage size from eight million to six million and from 20 million to 12 million under its mortgage insurance schemes.

"Given the prevailing market conditions, the changes to the Mortgage Insurance Programme are necessary in order to better manage the increased risks," said HKMC executive director Peter Pang, who is also deputy head of the HKMA.

Increasingly wealthy mainland Chinese investors and low interest rates have stoked demand in a city of tight supply.

Last week Henderson Land Development said it sold a duplex for a world record of 88,000 Hong Kong dollars (11,300 US) per square foot.

That translated into a price tag of 439 million dollars for the luxury property in Hong Kong's Mid-Levels area.

In his annual policy address last week, Hong Kong leader Donald Tsang said record prices achieved recently "have caused concern about the supply of flats, difficulty in purchasing a home, and the possibility of a property bubble".

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US seeks progress in high level trade talks with China
Washington (AFP) Oct 21, 2009
US President Barack Obama's administration wants progress in its first ministerial trade talks with China on issues such as copyright piracy and clean energy, officials said Wednesday. The meeting of the US-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade (JCCT) next week "provides an important opportunity to engage China on trade concerns impacting American companies," Commerce Secretary Gary ... read more







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