The original plan was to launch Pluto Express first in 2003, and Europa Orbiter in 2004 -- but in 1998 NASA unexpectedly reversed the order of the two launches, despite the facts that Europa Orbiter required considerably more sophisticated technology and Pluto Express could not tolerate any further delay beyond 2004 in order to use Jupiter for a gravity assist.

The suspicion at the time was that this decision was made by NASA Headquarters -- and perhaps by Administrator Dan Goldin himself -- because of an excessive obsession with astrobiology missions in the belief that they have more PR pizazz with the general public.

However, the new X2000 technologies took more time and money to develop than expected. Earlier this year, NASA decided to delay the launch of Europa Orbiter into 2006 -- but even then, it soon became clear that a Pluto probe using those technologies simply could not be launched in 2004 with the amount of funding available.

The mission could perhaps have been saved by transferring NASA's planned spending on Europa Orbiter during Fiscal 2001 into the Pluto project; but NASA instead decided to cancel Pluto Express and try to save the 2006 launch of Europa Orbiter -- despite the fact that Europa Orbiter, unlike the Pluto probe, could tolerate a launch delay of any length with no loss of science data or increase in total cost.

This may, again, be due to an excessive fixation with astrobiological missions and public PR on NASA's part -- especially when you consider that at virtually the same time, NASA astonished the scientific community by making a snap decision to launch a second rover to Mars in 2003, for which it had to immediately scrape up $200 million by siphoning it out of its other programs.

Admittedly, the problems with the X2000 technology development might have prevented a launch of Pluto Express in 2004 even if Europa Orbiter had been deprived of all its funding this year. (JPL states that "the total cost of finishing Pluto-Kuiper Express between now and 2004 is about $600 million.") And it's considered unlikely by almost everyone that Congress can be persuaded to cough up the additional $150 million or so needed this year.

But (as noted in an earlier "SpaceDaily" article), those advanced lightweight and radiation-resistant technologies -- which are undoubtedly necessary for Europa Orbiter and Solar Probe -- are not necessary for a Pluto flyby mission.

A Pluto probe will be exposed to a tremendously lesser dose of radiation during its brief Jupiter flyby than Europa Orbiter will. And an examination of the weights of other near-future NASA solar system probes with technical requirements similar to those of Pluto Express makes it clear that a Pluto spacecraft similar to one of NASA's "Discovery" inner Solar System missions could definitely be constructed that would weigh only 350-400 kg -- light enough to be launched to Pluto in 2004 by the already-developed Atlas 3 booster -- while retaining the scientific capabilities of Pluto Express, without the need for any of the new X2000 technologies.

This would also likely make it possible to fund a 2004 Pluto mission without the need to ask Congress for any increase in NASA funding whatsoever -- and also without reversing that rather curious decision to suddenly fund a new $200 million Mars rover mission out of nowhere.

Moreover, if the design for such a Pluto spacecraft was selected using techniques similar to the Discovery Program's strategy of picking a mission out of a list of candidates proposed by various independent scientific and engineering teams, it might set a promising precedent for the future -- since one complaint this writer has repeatedly heard from planetary scientists is that NASA has no similar program for missions to the outer Solar System (or, for that matter, Mars), and that the spacecraft designed for those programs by centralized decision makers without competition tend to be both more expensive and less well-designed than those which the competitive Discovery process selects.

None of this is at all likely to happen, however, without an increase in pressure on both NASA and Congress from both the scientific community and the general public -- nor will a 2004 Pluto mission using any technique be saved without such pressure.

Click For Part One

Related Links
Planetary Society Petition To Save Pluto Express
Ted Nichols' "Save Pluto Express" Site
PKE Mission Site
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