Roger McDermott wrote in Eurasia Daily Monitor, "The smooth transfer of military property that has denoted the creation of Russia's military base in Dushanbe for its 201st Motorized Rifle Division (MRD) partly reflects this acknowledgement of Russian centrality in Tajikistan's security arrangements."

According to Zeyno Baran, Director of International Studies and Energy at the Nixon Center, for Russia establishing a presence in Tajikistan is actually, "a way for Russia to influence Central Asian countries while weakening the U.S."

Tajikistan, which was once a part of the Soviet Union, has relied on Russian military presence in Tajikistan since it's 1992 civil war and opted to stay in Tajikistan to aid in the Tajik people's struggle for stability.

In an effort to do so, Russia opened a military base in the capital, Dushanbe where it is now the leading security force.

"Russia's military base is convenient because it is close to Afghanistan," said Martha Brill Alcott, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment of for International Peace. "In the end, it's more about Russia benefiting from being able to expand its forces, rather than helping Tajikistan's current situation."

However, Tajikistan does not seem to be complaining - it has actually invited more military presence in its country because, according to Alcott, it has not fully recovered from the civil war, which has led to revolutionary Islamist upheaval as well socioeconomic unrest.

Islamist insurgents have been active in all the "Stans," the former Soviet republics of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and others.

Most recently, Russia has sent humanitarian aid to Tajikistan following a flood last week that hit its southern region.

In May 1992, the Tajik opposition took power from the Tajik Supreme Soviet, which escalated into a civil war. In it's most recent election this past year, President Imomali Rakhmonov won in a second term run-an election Baran said, "weren't free and fair."

"The president and his family are corrupt," said Baran, "and that can cause problems with the Islamic opposition party that wants to get rid of him."

Tajikistan remains in the hands of an authoritarian structured government, which has sparked many rises in political opposition groups, looking to overthrow the government by the 2007 election. But before then - as seen in the bombings in Tajikistan earlier this year - the security threat in Tajikistan is at an all time high.

"It's unclear who bombed Tajikistan," said Baran. "There are even ideas that it was by the government in order to delegitimize the Islamic opposition in the eyes of the people." However, Tajikistan's government denies these allegations.

As Dushanbe tries to receive more Western military assistance for its under-funded, and under-trained and under-equipped armed forces, McDermott points out that "further bilateral agreement has been signed that will involve more security aid and training from Ukraine."

However, according to Baran, the likelihood of Western aid is weary because of Tajikistan's withstanding relationship with Russia and Iran. Also, Russia's proximity to Tajikistan has aided in evolving closer relationship ties.

"The U.S. and Europe are too far away to help Tajikistan," said Baran

"Tajikistan's government is more of a problem than a solution," said Alcott that Russian military presence is essential in dealing with Tajikistan's domestic issues, such as drug trafficking and the Islamic opposition party to the current president, Imomali Rakhmonov.

"The backbone of Tajikistan's military and security reaction to any trans-border incursion or large-scale terrorist incident remains under Russian influence," wrote Roger N. McDermott, a member of the International Institute of Strategic Studies. Also, Russia's investment in hydroelectric energy and building of military bases has shown promise to Tajikistan's weak economic infrastructure.

However, according to Baran, Russia is getting the better half of the deal. Their goal, said Baran, is to support governments of other countries to prove their sympathy, rather than encouraging overthrowing of governments.

"Russia is not necessarily looking to train Tajik soldiers or solve all its problems," said Baran, "but to establish a military presence of its own, for its own benefit."

All rights reserved. � 2005 United Press International. Sections of the information displayed on this page (dispatches, photographs, logos) are protected by intellectual property rights owned by United Press International. As a consequence, you may not copy, reproduce, modify, transmit, publish, display or in any way commercially exploit any of the content of this section without the prior written consent of United Press International.

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