Terrorism experts disagree about the extent to which the groups forming in North Africa are linked to al-Qaida in Iraq, but given the decentralized nature of the current threat from fundamentalist groups, these distinctions may not be very important.

A rash of attacks in Morocco and Algeria last month claimed by groups inspired by or affiliated with al-Qaida killed and wounded hundreds of people. European and American officials do not have solid evidence indicating that the attacks were coordinated, but as the scale of these attacks indicates, even a tie based only on inspiration from al-Qaida can be lethal -- and difficult for counter-terrorism efforts to intercept.

A U.S. military expert said that ever since the Taliban fell in Afghanistan and counter-terrorism efforts worldwide have increased, al-Qaida has had to change its strategy.

"The new modus operandi is through franchise operations, mom and pop terrorist groups. The ideology is out there and the training is available on the Web, so local terror groups can make their own plans and get their own funding. ... It doesn't take a lot to enable a group," the source said.

The grass roots movement to join al-Qaida benefits both the leaders cloistered in the hills of Pakistan and the groups fighting local or regional battles, intelligence and security experts said.

"Whenever they see that there is a conjunction of their efforts, they can advertise it as an achievement by al-Qaida," said a European security expert who asked that his name not be used.

Many critics of the Iraq war point to the amorphous nature of al-Qaida and say that the Bush administration was short-sighted and naive in ever thinking that al-Qaida could be eliminated by a superior U.S. Army fighting in the field.

This argument appears to have been proven in Iraq. The Bush administration once made the case that al-Qaida fighters would be drawn to Iraq where U.S. and coalition soldiers would summarily defeat them once and for all. In reality, the opposite proved true.

The Iraq war did indeed draw foreign fighters, and some of them, including some of their leaders, have died there. But the war also became a cause celebre for other radical groups, whether or not their original motivations were in line with al-Qaida's.

The group recently branded al-Qaida of the Islamic Maghreb is one example of this trend. Formerly known as the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat, or by its French initials GSPC, the group fought for more than a decade to overthrow the Algerian government. It announced last fall that it would join ranks with al-Qaida, a move welcomed by al-Qaida's second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri.

The goals of al-Qaida of the Islamic Maghreb do not appear to have changed drastically, but the group's profile was certainly heightened after the announcement, experts said.

"As soon as you have the name you're thought of differently," the European security expert said.

"The GSPC recognized over time that they could make a better name for themselves by being transnational, and part and parcel of that effort is the allegiance to al-Qaida," a source at the Pentagon said.

A report published in April by the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point seems to heed some of these lessons learned from Iraq in putting forth longer-term recommendations for North Africa.

"The threat of terrorism cannot be eliminated strictly through military action and law enforcement. A lasting reduction in terrorist violence requires changes in the current social and economic environment in Africa," the report stated.

Plans to create a U.S. military command that encompasses the whole continent of Africa seems to fall in line with the new way of thinking.

AFRICOM, announced by President Bush in February, will have an "interagency flavor" unlike any other U.S. military unified command and engage moderate regimes in the region in a variety of ways, the U.S. military expert said.

Long-term projects coordinated by the U.S. departments of Defense and State and the U.S. development agency will help create conditions suitable for foreign investment and redevelopment, and, in turn, have a positive effect on U.S. counter-terrorism efforts. "That's actually a very good way to stem the recruitment pool of people susceptible to franchise terrorist operations," the U.S. military expert said.

But the plans for AFRICOM are still in early stages, and the U.S. military itself acknowledges the challenge of ensuring that an increased U.S. presence does not foster greater anti-Americanism.

Conditions in the Middle East and North Africa indicate that the challenge for counter-terrorism and intelligence officials will only increase in the coming years.

Asked about a possible blowback effect from the Iraq war once the country stabilizes and foreign fighters trained by al-Qaida return to their home countries, the European security expert said that he was "certainly concerned."

"That will be a question to examine once the war ends. Unfortunately, it looks like we have some time," he said, before al-Qaida fighters in Iraq are in need of a new battle.

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