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Analysis: Pirates threaten world oil

The Sirius Star.
by Paul J. Sullivan
Washington (UPI) Nov 21, 2008
The super oil tanker Sirius Star is quite a haul for a small number of pirates in a few grungy fishing boats with a "mother ship" that was likely a reconfigured rust-bucket former trawler.

When it was hijacked Saturday about 440 miles from the Kenyan coast, the Sirius Star -- owned and operated by Saudi Aramco subsidiary Vela -- was carrying 2 million barrels of oil �� about $110 million worth.

This huge ship full of its valuables is floating off a "port" in the Puntland region of Somalia. I say "port" because it hardly fits that description. It is more like a den for the world's most dangerous pirates, who are now the world's most wanted pirates. There are no pipelines there, nor are there any refineries. It is a holding place, as are other places along the coast of Somalia, for this ship and the many others. These ships could bring tens of millions in ransom.

The ship itself was launched in March and cost $160 million. It's the biggest of them out there -- 1,090 feet long. If you put this ship across three football fields, its bow would hang over the third one by 30 yards. It is new, big and carrying expensive cargo.

The Saudis are not amused. The Sirius Star was heading for the Netherland Antilles to offload its oil at a refinery there. More than likely, most of that refined product was to go to the United States.

Nor are the Egyptians, who could lose billions in Suez Canal shipping fees as many shipping companies consider going around Africa, instead of going via the Gulf of Aden off Somalia, the Red Sea and the Suez.

Daewoo of South Korea built the ship. South Korea is now sending a warship into the area as the increasing number of successful pirate attacks has prompted action by the world's navies.

The Indian navy attacked a pirate ship Thursday. The pirates of Somalia also have taken Chinese ships. The Chinese must have some concerns about their oil and other supplies traveling in that area. There are naval ships from many concerned countries in the area, and more than just that South Korean ship may be in the way. Through this, many oil companies and others have yet more insecurity and risk to deal with during these very uncertain times.

There are only 493 Very Large Container Carriers (VLCCs) like the Sirius Star in the world. Taking one out of circulation for even a couple of weeks could throw off tanker planning by many companies and countries that are shipping their oil, or receiving such oil. Refinery companies also may need to rethink some plans when there are such disruptions, although they often have oil stored so that they can survive moderate transport disruptions. However, if this hijacking continues for a long time-period, then we could have more problems coming from it. (Actually, it is a good thing it happened during a slowdown in oil demand. If it happened at a peak point, like last August, not only would the value of the oil be much higher, there would be less slack in the oil markets.)

This is not the first large ship at long distances that the pirates have taken in the last few months. The pirates have been brazenly upping the stakes. For example, there was a large bulk carrier seized many miles off Somalia in the Gulf of Aden on Sept. 18. Three days later, a large coal carrier was taken about 200 miles off Somalia. Four days after that, the MV Faina, loaded with heavy weapons and tanks, was hijacked about 200 miles off Somalia. October was also a bad month for shipping off Somalia, but this November has been particularly dicey. Between Nov. 12 and 18 there were 12 hijackings in the area. Something is not right in this part of the world.

The pirates now can take ships well offshore, and that leaves the shipping lanes of the world at risk. Do not think this issue will just stay in Somalia and its surroundings. It easily could move to West Africa and to around the Strait of Malacca (or more like 500 miles in either direction from the Malacca). Pirate communities worldwide could share the means and methods of taking such valuable ships and cargo; much like al-Qaida and others share their means and methods with those in the terrorist communities.

Then there is that nagging suspicion that possibly violent extremist groups have some connections with the pirates. A few million dollars in ransom fees can go a long way in that part of the world. The potential ransom value of this ship, its cargo and its crew could help the pirates and others possibly connected with them obtain quite a lot of weaponry. Rumor has it that the specialized company working for Vela and the Saudis has heard a request from the pirates for possibly $25 million. That is a lot of RPGs, AK-47s, and even more powerful and dangerous weapons. The kind of firepower that money could buy could very much up the stakes.

The pirates of Somalia and the Gulf of Aden are a menace. The navies, intelligence services, special forces and other military outfits of many countries should begin to focus more on this issue, and start dealing with it more effectively. Diplomats and U.N. experts and committees, as well as security-based NGOs, should also get into the fray to get some solutions moving.

The time is now for action, before this gets much worse. The more the pirates take, the more powerful they will get. The more powerful and wealthy they get, the more other criminal gangs and, possibly, terror groups may get involved. Let us remember: This is Somalia, land of "Blackhawk Down," and a country the size of Texas that is without a government.

The world then needs to figure out some solution to some of the driving forces and root causes of such violent criminality in the country. It is a place without law. Somalia is also a desperately poor place with very few hopes and options for most. A land that is more prone to violence and famine than peace and prosperity can help breed piracy and terrorism in its more extreme forms.

Somalia is strategically located near some of the most important shipping lanes in the world. It is not far from one of the most important and volatile oil centers of the world, the Gulf. Should we have the world's economy walk yet another plank in these difficult times? Should we allow Somalia to fall into greater disorder, chaos and criminality that could very much get out of control and spread? The answer to both is an obvious: No. The time to act at many levels, and in many ways, is now.

(Paul J. Sullivan, an expert in energy and military security, is currently professor of economics at National Defense University and adjunct professor of security studies and science, technology and international affairs at Georgetown University. His "Chokepoints" column highlights the nexus between energy supply and global security. All opinions expressed are his alone.)

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World's navies struggle to deter Somali pirates
Brussels (AFP) Nov 21, 2008
Faced with increasingly daring and far-reaching acts of piracy, the world's navies are struggling to find the right deterrent and any use of force might have little effect, experts say.







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