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POLITICAL ECONOMY
Asia faces tougher battle in new world slowdown
by Staff Writers
Singapore (AFP) Aug 10, 2011

Asian economies still scarred by the 2008 world recession are likely to have a harder time grappling with a new round of turmoil than they did three years ago, regional analysts said.

Fears of a new global meltdown are growing after the United States received a credit downgrade for the first time and markets tumbled on expectations that Italy and Spain could join other European countries in seeking a bailout.

"Back in 2008, rotten debt in the banks was the problem," Singapore's DBS Bank said in reference to global financial rescue measures that helped bring economic growth back on track.

"Governments took the debt off the banks -- and spent a lot of money propping up economies -- and now they themselves are in trouble. Thats why the situation may be worse than before: theres no one left to turn to."

Stimulus spending during the 2008 crisis by nine East Asian economies including China and Japan -- which depend heavily on US and European demand -- totalled about $1.3 trillion, according to an Asian Development Bank estimate.

The US Federal Reserve pumped over a trillion dollars into the country's economy after the 2008 crisis and added $600 billion more in 2010.

Singapore, one of Asia's wealthiest countries, dipped into its reserves for the first time in 2009 as the economy sank into its worst recession since independence. It rebounded strongly and grew by 14.5 percent in 2010.

As Asian markets tumbled on Monday, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong trimmed Singapore's growth forecast for 2011 from a band of 5-7 percent to 5-6 percent, saying "the global outlook remains uncertain".

Credit watchdog Standard and Poor's (S&P), whose downgrade of Washington's top-notch AAA rating spooked markets, on Monday said the fiscal capacities of Japan, India, Malaysia, Taiwan and New Zealand had shrunk relative to pre-2008 levels.

"If a renewed slowdown comes, it would likely create a deeper and more prolonged impact than the last one," it said in a statement.

Regional financial systems may face "reduced liquidity and a heightening of refinancing risk in the near term" as borrowing costs rise.

Asia could also be affected to varying degrees as governments are again forced to use their balance sheets to support the financial sector, S&P said.

"The implications for sovereign creditworthiness in Asia-Pacific would likely be more negative than previously experienced, and a larger number of negative rating actions will follow," S&P added.

DBS said that "when investors discover that governments are as constrained as they are, gold -- and mattresses -- start to look attractive.

"And the impact on the real economy, as 2008/09 makes clear, can be dramatic," it added.

But Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific chief economist at research firm IHS Global Insight, maintained that the region's central banks are prepared to deal with another crisis, given their experience in 2008.

Central banks "have developed much stronger support mechanisms to ensure the stability of their financial systems and instruments to support provision of liquidity to their financial institutions", Singapore-based Biswas told AFP.

"This time around, these mechanisms are still available and central banks are much more experienced in addressing liquidity-related problems in their financial systems," he said.

The continued strength of the Chinese economy and Japan's resilience after the quake, tsunami and nuclear disasters in March may mitigate the effects of the US and eurozone debt crisis on Asia, Biswas added.

Jonathan Galaviz, a US-based economist who tracks Asia closely, said the region has enough liquidity at the moment but this is being supported by volatile US dollar funds that have sought higher returns and can also exit swiftly.

"Many perceive that Asia's governments are in a strong financial position, but that financial position can quickly turn ugly in an extreme economic downturn," said Galaviz, chief economist of Galaviz & Company consultancy.




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Singapore Q2 contraction stokes recession risk: analysts
Singapore (AFP) Aug 10, 2011 - Singapore's economic output contracted by 6.5 percent in the second quarter as global electronics demand slumped, official data showed Wednesday.

Economists said the drop raised the prospect of a second technical recession in three years for export-dependent Singapore, the first Asian economy to suffer negative growth during the last global downturn.

A technical recession takes place when an economy shrinks for two successive quarters.

Singapore's economy contracted by 0.8 percent in 2009 but expanded 14.5 percent in 2010 as its key markets recovered.

Data from the trade ministry showed gross domestic product (GDP) shrank 6.5 percent quarter-on-quarter on an annualised basis, a sharp reversal from the strong 27.2 percent growth in the first quarter.

Year-on-year, economic growth moderated sharply to 0.9 percent compared with 9.3 percent in the first quarter ended March, the ministry said in a statement.

Singapore's export-led economy last sank into a recession in the second-half of 2008 as the US subprime mortgage meltdown pushed the global economy into a downturn.

The trade ministry narrowed its 2011 growth outlook to 5.0-6.0 percent from 5.0-7.0 percent, reiterating the revised forecasts first announced by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong on Monday.

"Singapore could experience a technical recession with another contraction in the third quarter," Song Seng Wun, a regional economist with CIMB Research, told AFP.

"With a very small domestic demand, it is still very dependent on external demand for goods and services."

United Overseas Bank senior economist Alvin Liew also expects a technical recession but said it would be brief.

"The outlook for the second-half has been clouded by the stalling US recovery, and compounded by debt problems in the EU," Liew said.

"We are now expecting Singapore to enter into a technical recession in Q3, but we are not expecting the recession to be prolonged, with the Q4 swinging back to positive territory."

Liew said the bank has cut its overall 2011 GDP growth outlook for Singapore to 4.8 percent from 5.7 previously.

Bank of America-Merrill Lynch economist Chua Hak Bin said in a commentary he also expects a "mild (technical) recession, not of the severity seen" during global financial crises in 1998 and 2008.

Singapore's trade ministry painted a gloomy picture for the city-state's main export markets.

"Weighed down by structural factors, growth in developed economies continues to be sluggish," the ministry said.

"In addition, the recent downgrade of US sovereign debt rating has led to financial market volatility and increased uncertainties," it added.

"Should these situations worsen, Singapores economic growth could be lower than expected."

The second-quarter contraction was induced mostly by a 23.7 percent quarterly decline in the manufacturing sector, which remains a key economic engine for Singapore.

Weaker shipments of semiconductor chips, a major Singapore export, was the main cause, the ministry said.

Trade promotion agency International Enterprise Singapore said overall electronic exports slumped an annual 14.4 percent in the second quarter and was down 11 percent for the first-half.

The decline was caused by weak global demand and disruption to the worldwide supply chain from the March tsunami and earthquake disasters in Japan.





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China inflation hits three-year high
Beijing (AFP) Aug 9, 2011
China said Tuesday its politically sensitive inflation rate hit a more than three-year high in July while other data indicated its attempts to cap rising prices was sapping economic growth. The consumer price index rose 6.5 percent last month compared to a year earlier, the highest level since June 2008 when it reached 7.1 percent, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said. The July r ... read more


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