. Earth Science News .




.
POLITICAL ECONOMY
Asia shines as 2011 ends under eurozone cloud
by Staff Writers
Hong Kong (AFP) Dec 30, 2011


The sight of French President Nicolas Sarkozy running to Beijing to solicit funds to save the eurozone summed up what for some was the economic story of 2011 -- Asia's boom versus the West's gloom.

Coming after some regional nations were forced to go cap-in-hand to the International Monetary Fund for bailouts amid the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, the irony was not lost on observers.

As 2011 draws to a close with the US recovery barely at a trot, Europe staring into an economic abyss and even Brazil -- once a member of the high-growth emerging club -- facing possible recession, Asia is a beacon of hope.

Its economic emergence has also brought new diplomatic clout, with President Barack Obama very publicly shifting Washington's foreign policy focus towards the region at two summits in November.

Obama used the APEC summit in Hawaii to propel ambitious plans for the world's largest free trade zone, the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Twelve of APEC's 21 members pledged to join the talks, including Japan, the world's third-biggest economy.

The GDP growth numbers tell a story of a two-track global economy divided between an emerging East and declining West.

Eurozone woes so far have not hurt Asia's export-reliant economies as severely as the 2008-2009 US subprime mortgage crisis that sharply reduced global trade.

But analysts warn that Asia's success cannot be taken for granted heading into 2012, especially if Europe falls into recession.

The two powerhouses of regional growth, China and India, were showing cracks by the third quarter of 2011 as export markets faltered, domestic demand softened, debts mounted and production slowed.

Japan struggled to recover from its March quake-tsunami disaster and Thailand's output drowned in rising floodwaters. Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan all reported weak second-half figures.

"The main strength of Asia has been financial. Its banks are sound and aren't laden with extreme levels of bad debt," HSBC Co-head of Asian Economics Research Frederic Neumann told AFP.

"There has been a credit boom across the region which fuelled economic growth. In that regard Asia's resilience is somewhat artificial."

China's deep fiscal reserves drew a stream of high-level visitors including Sarkozy to Beijing this year to try to persuade the authorities to contribute to the European bailout fund.

But growth in China, the world's second-largest economy, is expected to have slowed to 9.2 percent in 2011 compared with the blistering 10.4 percent set in 2010, according to state-run think tank Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

The academy projects growth to slide to 8.9 percent in 2012, its lowest point in more than a decade.

Analysts such as Dong Tao of Credit Suisse are however expecting no more than 8.0 percent -- uncomfortably close to the 7.0 percent minimum the government says is required to maintain social stability.

Neumann said he believed China was heading for a "soft landing" in 2012, but was more cautious about Beijing's ability to sustain its credit-fuelled growth into 2014-2015. The same applied for the region as a whole, he added.

"The region's growth is to a large part dependent on rapid credit expansion. Sceptics would question whether Asia is experiencing its own credit bubble similar to what the West went through three or four years ago," he said.

Analysts said the main risk of a "hard landing" in 2012 was in India where growth slipped to a two-year low of 6.9 percent in the latest quarter, hit by a series of interest rate hikes that have done little to curb high inflation.

The government cut its growth forecast for the fiscal year to March 2012 to 7.3 percent from an original nine percent -- still a pace any developed economy would envy but far below the official 10 percent target set to tackle India's grinding poverty levels.

In Japan, GDP shrank by an annualised 2.1 percent in the June quarter after the March 11 quake and tsunami and the nuclear crisis at Fukushima.

The catastrophe shattered crucial component supply chains, forcing companies to shut down factories, slowing output and exports as the country tipped back into recession.

Producers raced to restore output more quickly than expected, and rebuilding efforts led to an annualised 6.0 percent jump in July-September GDP.

The Asian Development Bank said this week that trade between regional nations and rising domestic consumption fuelled by fast-growing middle classes would shield the region from the worst of the global fall-out.

Financial systems in Asia had been "little affected" by volatility in the credit markets and were keeping the investment pipeline liquid, it said in a report.

A defence against trouble in Western markets lay in "increasing intra-regional trade and financial integration, and expanding links with other emerging economies".

burs-smc/sls/dan/pdh

Related Links
The Economy




.
.
Get Our Free Newsletters Via Email
...
Buy Advertising Editorial Enquiries




.

. Comment on this article via your Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, Hotmail login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle



POLITICAL ECONOMY
Cuba moves closer to market economy
Havana (UPI) Dec 29, 2011
As seismic shifts go, Cuba's embrace of a socialist-coated market economy is going ahead in full stream as if it was the most natural thing for its authoritarian government to do in between Communist Party conferences and populist pep talkathons. After many fits and starts, Cuba the emergent capitalist economy is about as real as its platoons of card-carrying Communist Party members. No ... read more


POLITICAL ECONOMY
New Year despair for Japan's nuclear refugees

Life In An Age Of Unnatural Disasters

World Bank releases $500 mln for Philippine flood

Japan's tsunami refugees brace for harsh winter

POLITICAL ECONOMY
The art of molecular carpet-weaving

1.4 million orders for world's cheapest tablet in India

Tablets, e-readers closing book on ink-and-paper era

Better turbine simulation software to yield better engines

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Taiwanese seas threatened by overfishing

Italian fisherman recovers lost boat after 700-km journey

Japan indicts Chinese skipper for illegal fishing

Sea cucumbers: Dissolving coral reefs?

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Lockheed Martin Wins Major US Antarctic Program Support Contract

Glacial tap is open but the water will run dry

In hot water: Ice Age findings forecast problems

CryoSat ice satellite rides new waves

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Latest China food safety scandal widens to oil

Toxin found in Chinese milk

China jails six over tainted pork

China to face more Wukan-style protests: official

POLITICAL ECONOMY
42 people die in south India cyclone: report

Cyclone hits India's southern coast, kills 33

New island forms in Red Sea off Yemen: NASA

Thai floods death toll tops 800

POLITICAL ECONOMY
25 held over Bissau 'coup plot', weapons cache seized

Guinea Bissau says coup-plotter executed

Ivorian leadership faces conundrum with rowdy ex-rebels

Bissau back to normal after coup scare: AU chief

POLITICAL ECONOMY
How to break Murphy's Law And Live To Tell The Tale

Human skull study causes evolutionary headache

Malaysian 'lords of the jungle' cling to ancient ways

Mind reading machines on their way: IBM


.

The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2012 - Space Media Network. AFP and UPI Wire Stories are copyright Agence France-Presse and United Press International. ESA Portal Reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement,agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement