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Asian economies seeing growth accelerate: IMF

New evidence China told banks to halt January lending
Shanghai (AFP) Jan 26, 2010 - Fresh evidence emerged Tuesday that Chinese authorities had ordered several banks to stop issuing new loans this month as fears grow that the extra money is fuelling inflation. Credit Suisse said in a research note that six banks had confirmed new lending had been suspended from January 19 after an emergency meeting by the central bank's monetary policy bureau. It didn't name the banks. There are growing concerns in Beijing that speculators are taking advantage of the money sloshing around the markets, which could cause stock or property bubbles. The report came as a China Citic Bank employee, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Dow Jones Newswires the central People's bank of China had told it to halt new loans because it had reached its January quota.

"The People's Bank of China and the (bank's) headquarters have told us to control the pace of lending this year," he was quoted as saying, adding that the order appeared to be directed at the bank's Shanghai offices. "Our headquarters hasn't asked branches across the country to suspend lending," he added. Officials at the medium-sized lender were not available to comment when AFP called. A spokesman for Bank of China, the country's largest foreign exchange bank, declined to say whether it had been told to suspend giving out new loans. However, it said authorities wanted to "rebalance monthly and quarterly lending as much as possible" after a large amount of credit was extended in the first 20 days of January. New loans at Chinese banks totalled 9.6 trillion yuan (1.40 trillion dollars) last year -- nearly double the 2008 figure.

The banking regulator has set this year's target at about 7.5 trillion yuan and in the first two weeks of January new loans totalled 1.1 trillion yuan -- in line with the surge in lending at the start of last year. However, the latest data shows the pace of lending far exceeds the average over the past decade, Credit Suisse analyst Tao Dong said. On Thursday official data showed the economy grew 8.7 percent last year and 10.7 percent in the fourth quarter thanks to government stimulus spending and Beijing's calls to banks to boost lending to get people spending. It also showed inflation at 1.9 percent in December, the highest for 13 months.

Liu Mingkang, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, last week denied state media reports that banks had been ordered to stop lending for the rest of January. "I've made it very clear about bank lending. We have never asked the banks to stop lending," he said. However, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the country's largest lender, also ordered its Beijing branches on Friday not to issue new loans for the rest the month, Dow Jones reported, citing an unnamed person with direct knowledge of the matter. Officials at ICBC were also not immediately available for comment. "The People's Bank of China launched more aggressive quantitative tightening than we previously have thought," Credit Suisse analyst Tao said, adding new monthly lending quotas were likely. "Beijing will keep a close eye on lending activities. The State Council is watching the lending figures on a daily basis, instead of the usual monthly basis."
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) Jan 26, 2010
Asia's developing economies are seeing acceleration in 2010, led by an expected 10 percent growth rate by China, the IMF forecast Tuesday as the region recovers swiftly from a global downturn.

The International Monetary Fund allayed markets concerns about immediate risks to China's growth as Beijing moved to tighten liquidity amid soaring inflation and record high bank lending.

In its World Economic Outlook update released Tuesday, the Washington-based fund said Asian developing economies were set to grow at an average 8.4 percent this year as well as in 2011, compared with 6.5 percent in 2009.

China, the traditional global growth driver, was likely to post 10 percent growth this year, the IMF said, raising by one percentage point its 9.0 percent forecast made in October.

But the fund said growth in the world's most populous nation could slow to 9.7 percent next year. China's economy expanded 8.7 percent in 2009.

Chinese gross domestic product, a broad measure of a nation's goods and services output, returned to double-digit growth in the fourth quarter of 2009 at 10.7 percent, Chinese authorities said last week.

That pace surpassed the government's target of eight percent, a level that is seen as crucial to foster job creation and stave off social unrest in China's urbanizing population of 1.3 billion people.

But rising inflation, along with a government clampdown on bank lending and hike in borrowing costs, has kept markets on edge in recent weeks amid fears that a Chinese economic slowdown could dampen global recovery.

Jorg Decressin, head of the IMF's world economic studies division, ruled out immediate risks in China, in a media briefing after the report's release.

"There is no serious market-bubble risk," he said.

The fund said "key emerging economies in Asia are leading the global recovery" as the region became the first to rebound from a global downturn stemming from the worst financial crisis in decades.

India is expected to join China in providing impetus to growth in Asia this year and in 2011, the IMF said.

India should post 7.7 percent growth in 2010, it said, revising upward by 1.3 percentage points its earlier forecast.

In December, Indian Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee gave his most bullish outlook yet for the Indian economy, saying growth would be nearly 8.0 percent in the fiscal year to March 31.

The world's second most-populous nation is also expected to grow 7.8 percent next year after managing 5.6 percent last year, according to IMF projections.

Japan is poised to emerge with a growth of 1.7 percent in 2010 -- unchanged from the last forecast -- after a sharp 5.3 percent contraction last year, the IMF said, adding that Asia's richest economy could accelerate to 2.2 percent next year.

The fund also said that the Southeast Asian economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand were forecast to grow at a slightly better average of 4.7 percent in 2010 from 1.3 percent last year.

Asia's growth forecast is above that for the world's emerging and developing economies of about six percent in 2010 following a modest two percent last year.

The IMF sees more rapid output in 2010 for the world's developing economies.

"Stronger economic frameworks and swift policy responses have helped many emerging economies to cushion the impact of the unprecedented external shock and quickly re-attract capital flow," it said.



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World Bank praises China anti-inflation steps
Beijing (AFP) Jan 25, 2010
The World Bank said Monday recent moves by China to clamp down on rampant lending were the "best way" to tackle the problem of rising inflation and the threat of asset bubbles. "It is very tricky once you are in this situation of heavy credit growth to try to come off that. It is a very fine line between doing it too quickly and not doing enough," Ardo Hansson, lead economist of the World Ba ... read more







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