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Australia eyes 'worst-case' swine flu toll

Six in 10 in US expect widespread swine flu in fall: poll
Six in 10 Americans think swine flu will be widespread and cause serious illness in the United States this autumn, and a quarter think an outbreak could cost them their jobs, a poll showed Thursday. Fifty-nine percent of more than 1,800 adults polled at the end of last month by the Harvard School of Public Health said they thought there would be widespread cases of (A)H1N1 influenza with people getting very sick this coming fall or winter. Parents were more likely than people without children to say there would be a widespread and serious outbreak of (A)H1N1 in the autumn. Roughly two-thirds of parents said a serious outbreak was very or somewhat likely, compared to 56 percent of people without children. Children have been shown to be particularly at risk from swine flu, and hundreds of schools across the United States were shut down this spring when cases of (A)H1N1 were reported among the student body. In the survey by the Harvard School of Public Health, about half of parents said that if schools or childcare facilities have to close for two weeks in the autumn because of swine flu, they or their household would likely have to miss work in order to care for the children. Forty-three percent of these parents said they would likely lose pay or income and have money problems, and a quarter said they could lose their job as a result of having to stay home to care for the children.

France orders 94 million swine flu vaccines
France has ordered 94 million swine flu vaccine doses, stepping up its efforts to contain the pandemic after the World Health Organization (WHO) warned it was unstoppable. Health Minister Roselyne Bachelot announced the one-billion-euro order after a meeting of a French ministerial crisis cell late Wednesday, saying the vaccines would be delivered between October and January. Sanofi-Pasteur is to provide 28 million doses, GlaxoSmithKline 50 million and Novartis 16 million. France also has an optional order for 28 million additional doses from Sanofi-Pasteur and eight million from Novartis. France has recorded more than 600 cases of A(H1N1) swine flu since the end of April, according to the public health monitoring agency, the INVS, but none has proved fatal. Bachelot said experts were currently determining who should be given first access to the swine flu vaccine, with health professionals, pregnant women, children and the chronically ill expected to take priority. But she said the government aimed to offer vaccination to all who need it in the population of some 64 million people. Each person will receive two doses of the vaccine, several weeks apart. Vaccination will be carried out in specially-designated centres, with the cost shared between the state health system and private health insurers. From the end of next week, French pharmacists will also deliver free surgical masks and Tamiflu-style anti-viral tablets, both on prescription from a doctor. The WHO said Monday a vaccine should be available as early as September, warning that the pandemic was now "unstoppable," with more than 90,000 cases reported, including 429 deaths. A US study this week warned A(H1N1) could pick up genes from other flu strains that would make it both highly virulent and contagious, or acquire mutations enabling it to be resistant to Tamiflu.
by Staff Writers
Sydney (AFP) July 16, 2009
Australia warned Thursday it could face 6,000 swine flu deaths this year in a "worst-case scenario", as nervous governments tried to curb the pandemic and keep tabs on potentially risky public events.

The gloomy projection came as the number of A(H1N1) infections grew around the world, with Canada saying more than 200 school children had contracted the virus at summer camp.

Australian Health Minister Nicola Roxon stressed that the number of deaths was likely to be lower than the "worst-case" projection, which was based on an assumption of a lack of vaccines and anti-viral drugs.

"We could expect around 6,000 deaths across the country," she told ABC radio.

"That's really the worst-case scenario that is being projected at the moment."

Australia -- the Asia-Pacific nation worst-hit by the pandemic, with 11,194 infections, or nearly 12 percent of the global total of 94,500 confirmed by the World Health Organization -- is planning a mass vaccination scheme in October.

WHO chief Margaret Chan warned on Wednesday that a vaccine to combat the surging pandemic would not be readily available for months.

In South America, site of some of the highest infection rates, health ministers from six countries met in Buenos Aires to coordinate defences against the virus.

The ministers from Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay expressed alarm at the momentum the A(H1N1) virus has picked up in the southern hemisphere's winter.

Argentina has reported 137 swine flu deaths and more than 3,000 infections, giving it the worst fatality toll in the world after the United States, where 211 deaths and some 37,000 infections have been recorded.

The WHO has reported about 430 deaths worldwide.

Uruguay's president, Tabare Vazquez, said Wednesday that swine flu appeared "more benign" than run-of-the-mill seasonal flu, which kills tens of thousands every year. But Chilean President Michelle Bachelet said the flu outbreak was the "worst in 50 years."

In Canada, which has seen 25 swine flu deaths, according to WHO figures, hundreds of school kids contracted the virus at three summer camps in the eastern province of Ontario, local health authorities said.

"The total number of campers combined among these three camps that are affected is 227 ill out of a total of 1,275 campers," local health official Charles Gardner told broadcaster NBC.

"They're not severe, I would say, certainly none have required hospitalisation."

Elsewhere officials were closely monitoring sports and entertainment events after South Korea scrapped several gatherings when more than a dozen Indonesians attending a choir contest there tested positive for the virus.

In rugby-mad New Zealand, officials urged fans to stay away from the Tri-Nations rugby Test against Australia if they had swine flu symptoms.

"If you have symptoms, don't go -- you might feel well enough, but be considerate to everyone else," deputy public health director Fran McGrath told the New Zealand Herald.

In one unusual measure, a British bishop advised churches to ban holy water as part of hygiene efforts.

"Some churches have a stoup for holy water near the entrance to the church door and people are invited to dip a finger in this, and to make the sign of the cross.

"The water contained in stoups can easily become a source of infection and a means of rapidly spreading the virus," said the Bishop of Chelmsford, John Gladwin. "This practice should be suspended" in Chelmsford diocese.

He also urged caution when taking Holy Communion, warning if anyone had flu-like symptoms, the "priest alone should drink wine from the chalice."

Britain is Europe's worst hit country, with 17 people dying after contracting swine flu.

burs-njc/sst

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WHO chief doubts speedy swine flu vaccinations
London (AFP) July 15, 2009
The world's top health official said Wednesday a vaccine to combat the surging swine flu pandemic would not be readily available for months as the number of deaths from the virus spiralled. The comments by World Health Organization chief Margaret Chan came as Australia and Japan reported a surge in cases of the A(H1N1) virus, and Argentina dramatically upped its death toll from 94 to 137 in ... read more







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