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Biden to announce 'good news' on $100 billion UN climate fund
by AFP Staff Writers
United Nations, United States (AFP) Sept 20, 2021

Missing wind data cause models to underestimate climate change, study says
Washington DC (UPI) Sep 20, 2021 - Climate models may be underestimating global warming in North America, Europe and other places influenced by extratropical winds, according to a new study published Monday in the journal Communications Earth & Environment.

Extratropical winds shape climate patterns in North America, Europe and other temperate regions, but few climate models account for their variability. Now, scientists suspect a lack of extratropical wind data has undermined long-term temperature and precipitation forecasts.

Extratropical winds drive decadal climate patterns, bringing hot, cold, wet or dry weather to continents for roughly 10 years.

"Variations between decades in the strength of winds in the more temperate regions of the world are a crucial missing ingredient in projections of the future climate of those regions," lead study author Christopher O'Reilly, research fellow in the meteorology department at Reading's Royal Society University, said in a press release.

For the study, scientists collected global data on extratropical winds, revealing their variation and influence on climate patterns in North America and Europe.

When scientists incorporated the new data into climate models, they found extratropical forecasts were even more uncertain.

"By adding this extra variability into climate models, we showed that these winds may be an additional source of uncertainty on top of climate change," O'Reilly said.

"This could mean that within these regions, temperatures are pushed to relatively extreme highs or lows more often. While in some decades they could counteract increases to temperatures and heavy rainfall caused by climate change, in other periods they could make these extremes even more extreme," O'Reilly said.

Such increases in variability could yield prolonged periods of extreme weather. A particularly warm and wet decade, for example, could increase the risk of damaging hurricanes.

Models showed the range of possible precipitation totals across Northern Europe, Northern America and the Mediterranean could increase by as much as 50 percent, with uncertainty doubling in some regions.

The forecasts also showed that especially dry winters are likely to become increasingly common across the Mediterranean. Europe tends to host more frequent and extreme heatwaves during the summers following dry winters.

"This is yet another reminder that preparation will be crucial as we face up to more variable regional climates as an impact of climate change in the future," O'Reilly said.

US President Joe Biden is expected to announce "good news" on addressing a shortfall in a $100 billion global climate fund, a UN official said Monday following a closed-door meeting between countries on the sidelines of the general assembly.

Biden, who will make his first speech to the world body as the American leader on Tuesday, was represented by his climate envoy John Kerry at the meeting convened by Britain and UN chief Antonio Guterres.

Ahead of the Paris agreement, developed countries pledged to mobilize $100 billion a year from 2020 to support poorer nations with climate adaptation, but there is currently around a $20 billion shortfall.

"We did hear from the US representative in the room that... some good news was imminent," the UN official said, adding there were "really positive views and signals coming from the US representative."

"We don't have the details, of course, but hopefully it will help to provide that clarity on how the US intends to step up to support the mobilization of the $100 billion."

The announcement was a sliver of hope on the climate front following a slew of recent scientific reports painting a bleak picture of the planet's future, as the world's top polluters continue to spew greenhouse gases at alarming rates.

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who co-hosted the meeting, took leaders to task over their failure to honor their pledges for the fund, which is meant to deliver $100 billion every year from 2020 to 2025.

"Everyone nods and we all agree that 'something must be done,'" said Johnson, whose country will host the all-critical COP26 climate summit in Glasgow in November.

"Yet I confess I'm increasingly frustrated that the something to which many of you have committed is nowhere near enough," he added, in remarks shared by his office.

Last week, the OECD confirmed that only $79.6 billion was mobilized in 2019.

"We heard from some of the industrialized countries... the faint signs of progress," Johnson told reporters after the meeting, mentioning Sweden and Denmark.

Both countries have announced they would allocate 50 percent or more of their climate financing for adaptation in the developing world, another key UN goal.

"Let's see what the president of the United States has to say tomorrow," he added, hinting at the news to come.

- Transition from coal -

Britain for its part trumpeted its $15 billion climate finance pledges over the next five years, and announced Monday that $750 million of that would be allocated to supporting developing countries to meet net zero targets and end the use of coal.

"We're the guys who created the problem -- the industrial revolution started more or less in our country," said Johnson.

"So of course I understand the feelings of injustice in the developing world... But I say to them, that's why we've got to get the funding to help you to make the progress that you need."

The meeting came days after Guterres warned the world was on a "catastrophic" path to 2.7 degrees Celsius heating, after the latest bombshell report by UN scientists unveiled last week.

The figure would shatter the temperature targets of the Paris climate agreement, which aimed for warming well below 2C and preferably capped at 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

Guterres told reporters he called the conference with Johnson as "a wake-up call to instill a sense of urgency on the dire state of the climate process ahead of COP26."

While recognizing "developing countries need to take the lead," the secretary-general also called on "several emerging economies" to "go the extra mile."

This is taken to mean the likes of China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia and South Africa.

The Paris agreement calls for net zero emissions by 2050, with strong reductions by 2030, to meet the 1.5C goal.

With only 1.1C of warming so far, the world has seen a torrent of deadly weather disasters intensified by climate change in recent months, from asphalt-melting heat waves to flash floods and untamable wildfires.


Related Links
Climate Science News - Modeling, Mitigation Adaptation


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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Climate shocks forced over 100,000 to flee home in Burundi: charity
Nairobi (AFP) Sept 19, 2021
Natural disasters sparked by climate change have forced more than 100,000 people to flee their homes in Burundi in recent years, British charity Save the Children said in a new report released on Monday. It said climate shocks - not conflict - were now the main cause of internal displacement in the landlocked East African country, which has a largely rural population. "Over 84 percent of all internally displaced people in Burundi... have been displaced due to natural disasters rather than conf ... read more

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