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Britain expects swine flu surge within months

Swine flu virus 'stable' for now WHO chief
The swine flu virus is "stable" but must be monitored closely, director general of the World Health Organisation Margaret Chan said Thursday, Russian news agency reports said. "The virus is not mutating for the moment, it is stable," said Chan after a meeting with Russian Health and Social Development Minister Tatiana Golikova. Chan, however, underlined the importance of close monitoring of the spread of the virus, adding that it was highly "unpredictable." Since it emerged at the end of April, experts have feared that it could mutate into a virus that combines the contagious nature of swine flu with the virulence of avian flu. The WHO declared a global pandemic earlier this month. In a global update on Wednesday it reported 55,867 laboratory-confirmed cases of the A(H1N1) virus in 109 countries and 238 human deaths from the disease since late March.
by Staff Writers
London (AFP) June 25, 2009
Britain could see tens of thousands of swine flu cases every week within months and the strategy to cope with outbreaks is being changed, the chief medical officer said Thursday.

Liam Donaldson said the virus was likely to thrive in the colder months.

"We still think we are heading for a larger surge of cases in the autumn and winter," he told journalists, adding there could be "tens of thousands of cases" of swine flu each week by the autumn.

"It still remains a fairly mild virus and in most places is only spreading gradually," he added.

Britain has over 3,500 confirmed cases so far, and the government has up to now tried to contain the outbreaks by tracing people who have come into contact with confirmed cases and giving them drugs to stop the flu developing.

But Donaldson said too many people were now being diagnosed for that policy to be practical.

Under the new measures, doctors will use the drug Tamiflu more selectively, targeting only those people who show symptoms rather than trying to trace everyone who has come into contact with sufferers.

In another change, in areas of rapid transmission such as London and the West Midlands, including the city of Birmingham, people with swine flu will be diagnosed by a doctor rather than being confirmed by laboratory reports.

Health minister Andy Burnham said the approach to date of containing the virus had been "highly successful" but "very resource-intensive".

Britain is expected to receive the first batches of vaccines earlier than expected. Donaldson said the first delivery was now due in August, several months ahead of schedule.

Swine flu has infected more than 55,000 people in 109 countries and territories and killed 238 people since late March, the World Health Organisation said Wednesday.

Britain has the highest number of cases in Europe. An additional 288 patients were confirmed Thursday, taking the total to 3,597.

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Airlines struggle as swine flu adds to woes: IATA
Geneva (AFP) June 25, 2009
Airlines need to tackle a "dramatic" plunge in revenues in the industry's "worst" crisis ever, IATA said Thursday as international air travel continued to drop in May partly due to swine flu. Despite signs that the slump in passenger traffic since late last year may be tailing off, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said there was still significant excess capacity in the ... read more







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