Earth Science News
CLIMATE SCIENCE
Burning question: what can we expect in a 1.5C world?
Burning question: what can we expect in a 1.5C world?
by AFP Staff Writers
Paris (AFP) Feb 8, 2024

Massive wildfires exposing millions to toxic smoke, drought shrivelling crops and key waterways, destructive storms supercharged by record ocean temperatures -- in the last year the world has had a taste of what to expect with warming of 1.5C.

For the first time on record, Earth has endured 12 consecutive months of temperatures 1.5 degrees Celsius hotter than the pre-industrial era, Europe's climate monitor said Thursday.

That does not signal a breach of the more ambitious limit agreed by countries in the 2015 Paris Agreement -- because that is measured as an average over two decades.

Temperatures since the middle of last year have been ramped up by the naturally-occurring El Nino warming event, which is likely to recede in the coming months.

But underlying planetary heating has cranked up the global thermometer, driven largely by the burning of fossil fuels as well as deforestation and agriculture.

"Although this news does not mean the Paris limit is exceeded, it is undeniably bad news," said Joeri Rogelj, director of research at the Grantham Institute, Imperial College London.

"Unless global emissions are urgently brought down to zero, the world will soon fly past the safety limits set out in the Paris climate agreement."

- Limits of endurance -

That 1.5C milestone is no longer in the distant future, with the UN's IPCC climate science panel warning that a breach is likely sometime between 2030 and 2035.

What would a 1.5C world mean for humans and the natural world they rely on to survive?

Scientists estimate current global temperatures are around 1.2C hotter overall than the pre-industrial benchmark, averaged across the period 1850 to 1900.

Severe climate impacts are already visible around the world and would be amplified once the 1.5C threshold is reached.

Some parts of the world, like the Arctic and high mountain areas, are warming far faster than others.

In other regions, even small temperature increases can expose vulnerable communities to dangerous threats, including heat that tests the very limit of human endurance.

Coral reefs -- ecosystems that provide habitat for an immense array of marine life and protect coastlines -- are projected to decline 70 to 90 percent in a world that has warmed 1.5C.

The loss of biodiversity globally will be among the most pronounced impacts of a 1.5C warmer climate, according to the IPCC.

- Over the line -

Climate experts are also concerned that accelerating permafrost thaw will release carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere, creating a vicious cycle of warming.

The IPCC currently classifies the risk of permafrost melt in some regions as "moderate", but it would become "high" in a 1.5C or even warmer climate.

Some impacts of warming are already irreversible, and will continue to worsen, like sea level rise, driven by melting ice sheets and glaciers.

Higher ocean levels are already threatening the future of low-lying islands, while in the longer term metres of sea level rise will likely swamp many of the world's major coastal cities.

Even if the 1.5C limit is breached, reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains crucial to stay "well below" 2C of warming, the maximum warming limit set by the Paris Agreement.

That is because "every increment of global warming will intensify multiple and concurrent hazards," the IPCC warns.

Halting deforestation and the rampant destruction of ecosystems are also crucial to maintain nature's ability to draw down carbon from the atmosphere.

Oceans absorb 90 percent of the excess heat produced by the carbon pollution from human activity since the dawn of the industrial age.

Related Links
Climate Science News - Modeling, Mitigation Adaptation

Subscribe Free To Our Daily Newsletters
Tweet

RELATED CONTENT
The following news reports may link to other Space Media Network websites.
CLIMATE SCIENCE
Activists may escape prosecution over Mona Lisa soup attack
Paris (AFP) Jan 29, 2024
Two protesters who were arrested after hurling soup at Leonardo da Vinci's Mona Lisa painting in Paris may escape prosecution and instead be ordered to make a donation, prosecutors said on Monday. The two women on Sunday flung pumpkin soup at the bullet-proof glass protecting da Vinci's most famous painting at the Louvre art museum, demanding the right to "healthy and sustainable food." A group called Riposte Alimentaire ("Food counterattack") claimed responsibility for the stunt. The two a ... read more

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Argentina relaxes use of firearms by police

Ancient Antioch turns into container city year after quake

Global turbulence the 'new normal': EU's von der Leyen

Libya needs $1.8 bn to rebuild flood-devastated areas: report

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Benchtop test quickly identifies extremely impact-resistant materials

New AI tool discovers realistic 'metamaterials' with unusual properties

Green steel from toxic red mud

MIT physicists capture the first sounds of heat "sloshing" in a superfluid

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Researchers use satellites to analyze global reef biodiversity

Small but mighty - study highlights the abundance and importance of the ocean's tiniest inhabitants

Bad weather delays forming of Tuvalu government

Nestle admits treating some mineral waters

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Ice cores provide first documentation of rapid Antarctic ice loss in the past

Melting ice roads cut off Indigenous communities in northern Canada

Satellite-Derived Data Powers ALEX, Offering Insight into Arctic Permafrost Thaw

Yale joins the 'Snowball' fight over global deep freeze periods

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Temperatures are rising, but soil is getting wetter - why?

Chinese ownership of U.S. farmland, locations raise concerns

Climate change parches Morocco breadbasket amid policy pitfalls

Meloni restores tax breaks after farmer protests reach Colosseum

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Study reveals poleward shift in tropical cyclone genesis due to changing climate

In a warming world, climate scientists consider category 6 hurricanes

How an unprecedented magma river surged beneath an Iceland town

Icelanders race to repair damage after volcano damage

CLIMATE SCIENCE
EU 'regrets' Mali scrapping peace deal with separatists

Blinken nudges Nigeria on capital flows for US businesses

Prince William's Earthshot Prize heads to Cape Town

African Union troops complete new phase of Somalia pullout plan

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Innovation in stone tool technology involved multiple stages at the time of modern human dispersals

Scandinavia's first farmers slaughtered the hunter-gatherer population

Roads, farming threaten Ecuador 'lost city' complex

US patient 'happy again' after brain implant treats epilepsy and OCD

Subscribe Free To Our Daily Newsletters




The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2024 - Space Media Network. All websites are published in Australia and are solely subject to Australian law and governed by Fair Use principals for news reporting and research purposes. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA news reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. All articles labeled "by Staff Writers" include reports supplied to Space Media Network by industry news wires, PR agencies, corporate press officers and the like. Such articles are individually curated and edited by Space Media Network staff on the basis of the report's information value to our industry and professional readership. Advertising does not imply endorsement, agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) Statement Our advertisers use various cookies and the like to deliver the best ad banner available at one time. All network advertising suppliers have GDPR policies (Legitimate Interest) that conform with EU regulations for data collection. By using our websites you consent to cookie based advertising. If you do not agree with this then you must stop using the websites from May 25, 2018. Privacy Statement. Additional information can be found here at About Us.