Some of Asia's biggest economies are likely to narrowly avoid recession this year and are poised to bounce back strongly in 2021 if the coronavirus is contained, the IMF forecast Tuesday, with China leading the recovery.

The pandemic has hammered the world economy, with millions of jobs lost and businesses shut because of unprecedented lockdown measures to slow the spread of the disease.

But unlike the United States and major Western nations, China -- the world's second-largest economy -- will scrape through 2020 without going into recession, the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook.

It predicted growth of 1.2 percent growth for China this year, the slowest expansion in more than four decades.

"Emerging Asia is projected to be the only region with a positive growth rate in 2020 (1.0 percent), albeit more than 5 percentage points below its average in the previous decade," the IMF said.

"Other regions are projected to experience severe slowdowns or outright contracts in economic activity."

The Fund forecast China to bounce back next year with 9.2 percent.

India, Asia's third-biggest economy, is also expected to grow at 1.9 percent in 2020 before surging 7.4 percent next year.

Indonesia too is expected to just stay above water, gaining 0.5 percent this year before an 8.2 percent bounce in 2021.

However, more advanced economies in the region -- Japan, South Korea, Australia, Singapore and Hong Kong -- will dip into recession, according to the forecast.

Thailand and Malaysia are also expected to be in negative territory, but the Philippines and Vietnam are expected to still see modest growth this year.

China is expected to lead the economic recovery in Asia, and Beijing has unveiled a number of massive stimulus measures.

But economists have warned that China, where the virus first emerged late last year, will depend on recovery in other parts of the world.

And the Chinese government's domestic measures like increased credit will have a limited effect as long as the rest of the world is in turmoil, analysts said.

"Beyond China's own domestic challenges, the global recession poses additional threat to the economy," Chang Shu and David Qu of Bloomberg Economics said in a note.

The global economy is projected to contract by three percent this year, much worse than during the 2008-09 financial crisis, according to the grim IMF forecast -- which added that there was "extreme uncertainty", and the situation could get much worse.

The scale of the challenge, especially for exports, was highlighted last week when the World Trade Organization warned that global trade could fall by as much as a third.

Like the IMF, it too had warned that many variables were at play during a recovery -- and pointed to threat of a second wave of infections.

Global stocks climb as China data beats expectations
London (AFP) April 14, 2020 - Stock markets mostly rose Tuesday as better-than-expected Chinese trade data lifted some of the economic gloom wrought by the coronavirus pandemic.

Oil prices fell, despite US President Donald Trump claiming that producers were mulling a global daily output cut of 20 million barrels.

The dollar dropped against main rivals, helping to push gold above $1,700 an ounce -- the highest level for more than seven years, according to traders.

"Markets continue to react in an odd way, mostly ignoring all the bad figures that have come their way and focusing on the positives, such as the China figures," said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG trading group.

Asian stock markets kicked off the day with gains after official data showed Chinese exports fell 6.6 percent and imports slid 0.9 percent in March on a yearly basis.

"The data coming out of China is a rough leading indicator for the rest of the world," noted Jasper Lawler, head of research at London Capital Group.

"The smaller exports drop is a clue that China's first-quarter growth figures released on Friday could also surprise on the topside."

There were plenty of dismal figures that investors could have chosen to focus upon.

The IMF issued a stark warning that the coronavirus crisis would trigger a global recession that would very likely be the deepest economic contraction since the 1930s.

If stocks escaped unscathed, the same couldn't be said of the dollar.

"The dollar fell against its major trading partners following the IMF's gloomy projections which should support calls for the Fed to remain ultra-accommodative in the short-term," said market analyst Edward Moya at online currency brokerage OANDA.

As the dollar weakened, the value of the pound pushed higher, helping London's blue-chip FTSE 100 index to finish the day with a loss.

Wall Street moved higher as major banks kicked off earnings season.

Both JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo reported huge declines in first-quarter earnings after setting aside large provisions in case of bad loans.

But shares in the banks rose, with investors cheered by JPMorgan Chase signalling it intends to keep its dividend payment to shareholders.

- 'Oil uncertainty' -

Markets' focus was meanwhile firmly also on oil.

"There is still a lot uncertainty over whether the reduction in output will be enough," said Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at trading website Markets.com

"The biggest uncertainty for oil is how quickly does demand recover in the medium term? Indeed, this is the central question for risk assets in general," he added.

Oil producing nations at the weekend thrashed out a compromise to cut output by nearly 10 million barrels per day from May, while Trump said the final figure could end up being double that level.

Oil prices have crashed as the coronavirus outbreak sends demand off a cliff, with a Saudi-Russian price war having compounded the crisis.

While they rose ahead of the weekend deal, they fell back by 5 percent on Tuesday.

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