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China allows couples to have three children as birthrate falls
By Laurie CHEN
Beijing (AFP) May 31, 2021

Forty years of population policy in China
Beijing (AFP) May 31, 2021 - China on Monday relaxed its two-child policy to allow couples to have three children, a shift aimed at tackling an ageing society.

Here is a timeline of the country's evolving family planning policy.

- One child -

In 1979, China imposed a policy forcing couples to have only one baby, introduced by top leader Deng Xiaoping to curb population growth and boost economic development.

The population stood at 969 million that year, a sharp increase from around 540 million in 1949.

The decades under this family planning move led to under-reporting of female births, as well as a high rate of abortions of female foetuses, skewing the sex ratio.

But the results were dramatic, with fertility rates falling from 5.9 births per woman in 1970 to about 1.6 in the late 1990s.

The government said the policy prevented about 400 million births.

- Two children (for some) -

Despite concerns about demographic imbalance, Chinese leaders hesitated to simply abolish the one-child policy.

Instead, since 2013, they loosened the single child rule and allowed couples where one was an only child to have a second offspring.

The population hovered around 1.36 billion at the time, according to World Bank data.

But only 1.45 million couples, or below 15 percent of those eligible, applied to have a second child as of May 2015.

- Two-child policy -

Since 2016, Beijing allowed families to have two children as fears mushroomed about China's shrinking workforce.

But experts warned there would be no quick fix to the demographic challenges after strict and sometimes brutal enforcement of the single child policy.

Last year, there were around 12 million births, the lowest number since 1961.

A census released this month showed China's population grew at the lowest pace in decades, reaching 1.41 billion.

The country still has 34.9 million more men than women, making up just over 51.24 percent of the population.

Meanwhile, the number of people aged between 15 and 59 dropped nearly seven percentage points, while those over 60 was up more than five percentage points.

- Three children -

On Monday, in a meeting of China's elite Politburo leadership committee hosted by President Xi Jinping, officials relaxed the childbirth policy further to let parents have three children.

China will allow couples to have three children after a census showed its population is rapidly ageing, state media said Monday, further unwinding four decades of strict family planning controls in the world's most populous nation.

In 2016 China relaxed its "one-child policy" -- one of the world's strictest family planning regulations -- allowing couples to have two children as concerns mounted over an ageing workforce and economic stagnation.

But annual births have continued to plummet to a record low of 12 million in 2020, Beijing's National Bureau of Statistics said this month, as the cost of living rises and women increasingly make their own family planning choices.

China's fertility rate stands at 1.3 -- below the level needed to maintain a stable population, the figures revealed.

The slump threatens a demographic crisis which has alarmed President Xi Jinping's ruling Communist Party, risking a shortage of young workers to drive an economy experts say will have to support hundreds of millions of elderly by 2050.

A Monday meeting of the party's powerful Politburo led by Xi announced a further loosening of the state's control over the size of families.

"To actively respond to the ageing population... a couple can have three children," state media Xinhua reported.

The Politburo meeting promised "accompanying support measures" including improving maternity leave, universal childcare and lowering the costs of education, but without giving firm commitments.

- Rich kids only? -

The announcement was met with widespread ridicule on Chinese social media platform Weibo, tapping into a deep unease with long working hours, skyrocketing house prices and the rising burden to provide for ageing relatives that frames modern life.

"For Chinese millennials one couple must support four grandparents as well as three kids? Can the country give a hero's award to each of them?" read one comment that gained over 3,000 likes.

Others said the policy could only be taken up by those with money.

"The poor don't dare have kids, in two more generations there will only be rich people left," another user commented.

A poll on Weibo shared by Xinhua asking readers their reaction to the news later appeared to have been deleted after over 25,000 responded that they would not consider having three children.

China's gender balance has been skewed by decades of the one-child policy, and a traditional social preference for boys which prompted a generation of sex-selective abortions and abandoned baby girls.

And for a younger generation of women with changing priorities amid the unrelenting pressures of urban life in China, there remains a widespread aversion to having children.

"I don't want to have even a single child," a 27-year-old single woman from Zhejiang province who gave her name only as Wendy told AFP. "Nobody around me wants to have kids."

Most experts agree that the policy alone will not reverse China's declining fertility, though it sends a symbolic message after decades of the one-child limit that was often brutally enforced by forced abortions and sterilisations.

"Most families have a preference for few children now -- akin to the rest of Northeast Asia," said Lauren Johnston, a China economics and demography researcher at SOAS University of London.

"By the time of the next census will there be many third children? Probably few."

A third of Chinese are forecast to be elderly by 2050, heaping huge pressure on the state to provide pensions and healthcare.

Ye Liu, lecturer in international development at King's College London, said the new policy was "unlikely to incentivise birth rates dramatically."

"The government shifts the responsibility of ageing population to individual families without concrete financial and policy commitments."


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