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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China economic growth slows to 9.5% in Q2
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) July 13, 2011

China said Wednesday its economy expanded at a slower but still robust pace in the second quarter as Beijing battles to bring politically sensitive inflation under control.

Gross domestic product in the world's number two economy grew 9.5 percent year-on-year in the April-June period, the National Bureau of Statistics said, as policymakers clamped down on bank lending to tame soaring prices.

The figure was higher than the 9.4 percent growth forecast in a poll of analysts by Dow Jones Newswires, but slower than the 9.7 percent posted in the first three months of the year and 9.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010.

Analysts said the slowdown highlighted the dilemma facing policymakers after inflation -- a major bugbear for Beijing -- hit a three-year high of 6.4 percent in June.

"Slower growth and higher inflation has put the central government in a monetary policy quandary," IHS Global Insight economist Alistair Thornton said -- but he added that so far the economy was on a "soft-landing trajectory".

The central bank has hiked interest rates five times since October, most recently last Wednesday, and increased the amount of money banks must keep in reserve numerous times, making it difficult for companies to access funding.

In the first half, the economy expanded 9.6 percent year-on-year compared with 11.1 percent in the same period of 2010, the data showed.

The slowdown in growth comes amid concerns China is heading for a hard landing after manufacturing activity almost stalled in June -- which could have a serious impact on countries struggling to recover from the financial crisis.

Credit Suisse economist Tao Dong said in a recent note that "signs are emerging that the economy might be moderating faster than expected".

And on Wednesday NBS spokesman Sheng Laiyun told reporters: "The external and internal environment for China's economic development is still rather complicated with numerous instabilities and uncertainties."

However, he added that the economy maintained "good momentum" in the first half and the risks for a "large slowdown are small".

The data showed second-quarter gross domestic product was up 2.2 percent from the first quarter, which Royal Bank of Canada senior strategist Brian Jackson said was evidence that "hard landing concerns are overdone".

"Overall it does highlight that it's been a pretty moderate slowdown since the start of the year, driven by domestic policy measures," Jackson told AFP.

Markets around the region reacted positively to the data -- Shanghai gained 1.2 percent, Hong Kong rose one percent, Seoul climbed 0.89 percent and Sydney added 0.5 percent. Tokyo was 0.47 percent higher.

Other data showed industrial output from China's millions of factories rose 14.3 percent year-on-year in the first half, while fixed asset investment, a measure of government spending on infrastructure, rose 25.6 percent.

Retail sales were up 16.8 percent year-on-year in the first six months.

Some analysts have been concerned that Beijing, anxious about inflation's potential to trigger social unrest, may have gone too far in tightening monetary policy as it struggles to bring prices under control.

The June inflation rate of 6.4 percent announced at the weekend was much higher than the government's annual target of four percent and was driven by food prices which soared more than 14 percent.

At the same time, there are growing fears about massive local government debt burdens after ratings agency Moody's warned the proportion of sour loans could be much higher than previously forecast -- which analysts say could derail the economy.

Chinese banks opened the credit valves to fund infrastructure projects as they heeded Beijing's call for nationwide efforts to spur economic growth following the global financial.




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IMF names first Chinese deputy managing director
Washington (AFP) July 12, 2011 - The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday named Chinese economist Zhu Min to a new deputy managing director's position, giving long-awaited recognition to China's huge power in the global economy.

The IMF also named White House aide David Lipton to the Fund's number-two position, replacing outgoing first deputy managing director John Lipsky.

They were the first appointments made by new IMF managing director Christine Lagarde, who arrived last week promising a greater role for the world's large emerging economies, currently underrepresented on the IMF board and management.

Zhu, 58, has been a special adviser to the IMF managing director since 2010. While the new deputy managing director position was created generally for an emerging economy representative, it was widely expected that someone from China, the world's second-largest economy, would fill it.

The former Chinese central banker "brings a wealth of experience in government, international policy making and financial markets, strong managerial and communication skills as well as an institutional understanding of the Fund, and I look forward to his counsel," Lagarde said in a statement.

"He will play an important role in working with me and the rest of my management team in meeting the challenges facing our global membership in the period ahead, and in strengthening the Fund's understanding of Asia and emerging markets more generally," she added.

Zhu was a deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, and previous served in various positions at the Bank of China. The economist also worked six years at the World Bank, and has taught at Fudan University in China and Johns Hopkins in the United States.

Lipton, 57, President Barack Obama's adviser on international economic affairs and a former IMF staffer, was named as first deputy managing director.

A gentleman's agreement has allowed Europeans to keep the top position in the Fund since 1946, while an American has always been number two.

Lagarde praised Lipton for his "international expertise, public sector policy making and private sector experience, and a proven track record in economic crisis management."

He will start at the Fund at the end of this month, while Lipsky, who has been deeply involved in Europe's debt talks as the IMF representative, will remain as a special adviser to Lagarde through November.

Both Lipton and Zhu have to be approved by the IMF board of directors, but that is seen as a formality.

Zhu's appointment is likely to assuage some of the complaints that the IMF's management team -- the managing director and her now-four deputies -- are overly dominated by the old and mature economies -- the United States, Europe, and Japan.

There are two other deputy managing directors: Japan's national Naoyuki Shinohara, and US-Britain-Egypt triple-national Nemat Shafik, appointed on April 11.

The IMF is already implementing a plan to elevate the power of the largest emerging economies on the board -- China, India, Brazil, Russia, and South Africa, especially.

Lagarde has pledged to pursue that plan, even though it will mean a reduction of the powerful voting power held by her European backers.





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POLITICAL ECONOMY
Outside View: Republicans need new taxes
College Park, Md. (UPI) Jul 12, 2011
U.S. President Barack Obama hardly needs more taxes to slash the federal deficit but congressional Republicans do need new taxes to survive politically. Puzzled? Be not! Washington is a city of paradoxes, where economics may define what is good but politics defines virtue. Since 2007, when Democrats took control of Congress, federal spending is up $1.1 trillion - $900 bil ... read more


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