China's economy grew at its slowest rate in three decades in 2019, according to an AFP poll of economists, after a year marked by weaker domestic demand and a bruising trade war with the United States.

The survey of analysts at 14 institutions predicted that the world's second-largest economy would clock 6.1 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the full year.

The figure is a clear drop from the 6.6 per cent growth achieved in 2018 -- which was the slowest pace since 1990 -- but remains within Beijing's official target of 6.0-6.5 percent.

Analysts are forecasting six percent growth for the last three months of the year, the same as the previous quarter, with the official figure to be released Friday alongside the annual GDP result.

Oxford Economics senior economist Tommy Wu said that although GDP figures are set to hit a record low for recent decades, it was not unusual to see growth tapering off in economies undergoing restructuring and moving towards services and higher-value industries.

"It's natural to see the Chinese economy's growth rate slow over time, converging to something more sustainable over the long run," he said.

Wu said that apart from the US-China trade war, which weighed on manufacturing and exports over the year, government stimulus measures had also taken a toll.

He said authorities had focused on encouraging demand with tax cuts, which were "not as effective when it comes to boosting the economy, compared with other means such as infrastructure spending".

- Positive signs -

Analysts from the China International Capital Corporation wrote in a recent note that better trade demand and stronger domestic infrastructure investment growth would drive China's recovery.

The Beijing-based investment bank's analysts said they expect economic momentum to continue after a strong rebound in industrial production growth in November.

There are other positive signs on the horizon as well, Wu said, citing the US-China "phase one" trade deal due to be signed on January 15.

A recent JP Morgan report said a recovery in trade is likely to help growth in 2020 -- although this also depends on further progress in the trade talks and how quickly fiscal support can step up to support infrastructure investment.

ANZ senior China economist Betty Wang warned trade tensions could still escalate and impact next year's growth, telling AFP that enforcement issues could create uncertainties.

And China's growth may not have hit the bottom yet, according to Nomura analysts, given challenges such as worsening fiscal conditions, a cooling property sector and weakening exports.

Customs data released Tuesday showed Chinese exports grew 0.5 percent in 2019, while its imports fell 2.8 percent.

The data also showed that the trade surplus between China and the US, a major source of anger in the White House, narrowed 8.5 pecent last year to around $295.8 billion.

On Tuesday, spokesman for the customs administration Zou Zhiwu said a rise in imports from the US is not likely to hit those from other countries.

But Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics said Chinese import growth may not improve much more owing to "headwinds to domestic demand", and that a step-up in US imports will probably come at the expense of those from elsewhere.

Nomura's Wang Lisheng told AFP that despite the ongoing trade talks, China's export growth is likely to remain under pressure in coming quarters, given existing US tariffs on and global economic headwinds.

Beijing may respond with another round of infrastructure stimulus, likely to focus more on large cities in the coastal regions, Nomura analysts said.

The World Bank has forecast China's growth to come in at 5.9 percent this year, against the backdrop of a "fragile" world economic outlook.

Overall global growth is expected to accelerate slightly in 2020.

China trade surplus with US dropped 8.5% to $296 bn in 2019
Beijing (AFP) Jan 14, 2020 - China's trade surplus with the United States narrowed last year as the world's two biggest economies exchanged punitive tariffs in a bruising trade war, data showed Tuesday, just as the two prepare to sign a deal dialling down tensions.

The huge difference in trade traffic is a key bone of contention for Donald Trump in a long-running stand-off that has seen him impose tariffs on goods worth hundreds of billions of dollars, triggering retaliation from Beijing and jolting the global economy.

China's surplus came in at around $295.8 billion in 2019, down 8.5 percent from the previous year's record $323.3 billion, according to customs data.

In December, its surplus with the US was around $23.2 billion, from $24.6 billion the month before.

The mini trade deal announced last month will see Beijing buy an extra $200 billion of US products over a two-year period, according to Washington officials. China has yet to publicly confirm the figures.

The Trump administration called off new tariffs on Chinese-made goods such as electronics that were to take effect last month. It also halved those imposed on September 1 on $120 billion worth of products.

But Washington maintains 25 percent tariffs on about $250 billion worth of Chinese imports.

In a further sign of de-escalation, Washington on Monday removed the currency manipulator label it imposed on China in the summer.

At a news conference on Tuesday, spokesman for the customs administration Zou Zhiwu said that since November and December, Chinese imports from the US including of soybeans and pork have picked up.

Zou added that the increased imports from the US will not affect China's purchases from other countries.

He also said the trade tensions had "put some pressure on China's foreign trade and firms that largely trade with the US".

"Although our exports to the US have declined, the effectiveness of enterprises diversifying their markets has been significant," he said, adding that exports to non-US markets have risen and overall exports are still rising.

The signing of the new trade deal, which is part of a planned wider pact, will have an "important and positive significance" not just for China and the US but also the rest of the world, Zou said.

China's foreign trade volume fell slightly on-year in 2019, and its surplus with the world stood at $421.5 billion.

- China pork imports rise -

In December, China's exports rose 7.6 percent on-year, the growth since July and above the 2.9 percent forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Imports surged 16.3 percent, far exceeding estimates.

For the full year, exports rose 0.5 percent while imports fell 2.8 percent.

Meat imports spiked over the past 12 months as officials brought in 2.108 million ton of pork -- a 75 percent increase from the year before, while beef imports rose 60 percent.

The huge jumps come as the country's pork supply is hammered by an outbreak of African swine fever that has wiped out about 40 percent of the national pig herd.

Nick Marro at The Economist Intelligence Unit said China's overall export recovery in December is likely due in part to a low base of comparison from the year before.

"It was around this time last year when we first started to see the impact of both the trade war and the global electronics slowdown bite into China's trade data," he added.

While shipments to Europe and Southeast Asia are up, Marro said these markets cannot fully replace the US.

"However, China's efforts to pivot towards alternative sources of demand, as a cushion to lost US market access, may be starting to pay off," he said, adding that growth in shipments to Vietnam outperformed every other major export market.

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