Earth Science News
TRADE WARS
China saw moderate third-quarter growth as hurdles persist: survey
China saw moderate third-quarter growth as hurdles persist: survey
By Peter CATTERALL
Beijing (AFP) Oct 16, 2023

China's economy is expected to have seen moderate growth in the third quarter, according to an AFP survey ahead of data this week, while experts warn that there were still significant hurdles for its recovery.

Authorities have been seeking ways to reinvigorate activity in an economy grappling with a major property crisis and weaker consumption since Beijing abolished its strict zero-Covid policy last year.

Analysts polled by AFP saw an average 4.3 percent on-year growth in gross domestic product in July-September, falling short of more ambitious projections of a sustained recovery.

"Troubles in the property sector have spilled over into wider consumer activity and translated into consumers still spending a smaller share of their income relative to pre-Covid," Capital Economics' Sheana Yue said.

Beijing has set a goal of around five percent growth for 2023 -- one of its lowest targets in years following decades of breakneck expansion.

And that goal "is not a strong number considering last year's low base", Gene Ma of the Institute of International Finance said. "The main challenge is still housing."

While real estate was once a driving force for the world's number two economy, many developers are now fighting for survival -- exacerbating a crisis of confidence among potential buyers.

"Given the large stock of empty homes, ageing population, and the end of speculation fever, we expect home sales to remain subdued for years to come," said Ma.

The newest quarterly figures are due to be released on Wednesday, the same day that a slew of world leaders including Russian President Vladimir Putin arrive in Beijing for a summit on China's Belt and Road -- potentially meaning they could be delayed.

Authorities last year postponed the release of third-quarter figures ahead of a major political conference, without providing a reason.

Experts say China is on track to reach its modest goal for the year, with AFP's survey of analysts forecasting annual growth of 4.92 percent.

But last quarter's results missed expectations following a rapid resumption in activity in the first three months of this year.

The economy grew 6.3 percent in the second quarter, much weaker than the 7.1 percent predicted in a survey of analysts by AFP.

"Households and businesses are ever-so-slowly gaining some confidence," said economist Harry Murphy Cruise of Moody's, adding that the country's growth for the entire year is on pace to "sneak into the bottom" of official targets.

- 'Sluggish' demand -

Exports, another traditional engine for growth, have also flagged this year.

As many major economies face the prospect of rising inflation, consumers around the world are buying fewer Chinese products.

"Sluggish external demand will continue to weigh heavily on (China's) exports and manufacturing activity," said Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings.

In the face of growing challenges, authorities are coming under pressure to step in with stimulus, but other than a few small interest rate cuts and pledges of action, there has been little of substance out of Beijing.

Authorities have so far been "hesitant to come with the needed 'big bazooka' stimulus", said Robobank's Teeuwe Mevissen.

But help could be on the way.

"According to some sources, Beijing is considering... 1 trillion yuan ($137.0 billion) in stimulus during the last quarter of this year," said Mevissen.

And Jing Liu, Greater China chief economist at HSBC Global Research, said that while the country is "now facing both cyclical and structural headwinds", it is starting to see signs of recovery in consumption demand and property sales in major cities.

"In the upcoming quarters, we expect the government to focus more on structural reforms, such as supporting consumption-led growth, as well as fostering new growth drivers in manufacturing upgrading and green development," said Liu.

China's economy expanded 3.0 percent in 2022, well short of the official target of 5.5 percent, and one of the lowest rates in four decades, owing to the impact of strict Covid containment measures.

pfc/oho/je/dan

HSBC

Related Links
Global Trade News

Subscribe Free To Our Daily Newsletters
Tweet

RELATED CONTENT
The following news reports may link to other Space Media Network websites.
TRADE WARS
Asian markets press on with rally, China fund boosts optimism
Hong Kong (AFP) Oct 12, 2023
Asian stocks extended the week's gains on Thursday, undeterred by forecast-beating US wholesale inflation data as investors grew increasingly hopeful the Federal Reserve would not hike interest rates further. The mood was enhanced by news that China's massive sovereign wealth fund had bought stakes in the country's biggest banks, fuelling speculation it could broaden its reach to support beleaguered mainland markets. There has been plenty of optimism on trading floors in recent days after a US j ... read more

TRADE WARS
'Broken in two': Libya flood survivors grapple with mental health

Tens of millions of children uprooted by climate disasters: UNICEF

Biden says 'can't stop' building of more Mexico border wall

Second round of Fukushima wastewater release begins

TRADE WARS
Physicists coax superconductivity and more from quasicrystals

$9.5 bn of key metals in overlooked electronic waste: UN

Spire Global selected by accelerate digitalization across the maritime industry

Making more magnetism possible with topology

TRADE WARS
SwRI's modular dam design could accelerate the adoption of renewable energy

Drought caused 'historic' global hydropower drop in early 2023

Indigenous troops guard Australia's vast north

Vietnam's Mekong Delta may run out of sand by 2035: study

TRADE WARS
WWF urges end to deadlock on new Antarctic reserves

Glacial lake floods: a growing, unpredictable climate risk

At least 10 dead, 82 missing in India glacial lake burst

Mont Blanc shrinks by over two metres in two years

TRADE WARS
Climate change is improving French wine -- for now

Sugar prices hit 13-year high due to El Nino fallout: FAO

In pesticide-heavy Brazil, could crop dusting be killed off?

Fukushima sake brewer warms shattered Japanese fishing community

TRADE WARS
Lidia leaves at least one dead in Mexico, weakens to storm

14,000 displaced in Myanmar after record rain sparks floods

Mayor seeks to raze flood-hit Slovenia village as climate change bites

Dust and despair in Afghan village wiped out by quakes

TRADE WARS
DR Congo jails 'survivors' of protest killings

Cameroon landslide survivors scramble to salvage their lives

Mali junta plans takeover of key UN camp in rebel north

Niger's military rulers say French army's exit operation starts Tuesday

TRADE WARS
Does a brain in a dish have moral rights?

Fears for ancient Cyrene after Libya floods

Need to hunt small prey compelled humans to make better weapons and smarten up

Hong Kong's top court rules to recognise same-sex partnerships

Subscribe Free To Our Daily Newsletters




The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2024 - Space Media Network. All websites are published in Australia and are solely subject to Australian law and governed by Fair Use principals for news reporting and research purposes. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA news reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. All articles labeled "by Staff Writers" include reports supplied to Space Media Network by industry news wires, PR agencies, corporate press officers and the like. Such articles are individually curated and edited by Space Media Network staff on the basis of the report's information value to our industry and professional readership. Advertising does not imply endorsement, agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) Statement Our advertisers use various cookies and the like to deliver the best ad banner available at one time. All network advertising suppliers have GDPR policies (Legitimate Interest) that conform with EU regulations for data collection. By using our websites you consent to cookie based advertising. If you do not agree with this then you must stop using the websites from May 25, 2018. Privacy Statement. Additional information can be found here at About Us.