. Earth Science News .
POLITICAL ECONOMY
China to drag down growth in developing Asia: World Bank
by Staff Writers
Singapore (AFP) April 11, 2016


China consumer inflation stable at 2.3% in March
Beijing (AFP) April 11, 2016 - China's consumer inflation was steady at 2.3 percent year-on-year in March, official data showed Monday, a sign of stabilisation for the world's second-largest economy.

The rise in the consumer price index (CPI) released by the National Bureau of Statistics was the same as February's 2.3 percent, and slightly below market forecasts of 2.4 percent in a survey by Bloomberg News.

Moderate inflation can be a boon to consumption as it pushes buyers to act before prices go up, while falling prices encourage shoppers to delay purchases and companies to put off investment, both of which can hurt growth.

The producer price index (PPI), which measures prices of goods at the factory gate, fell 4.3 percent year-on-year, its slowest rate of decline since January 2015.

It increased 0.5 percent from February, its first month-on-month rise in two and a half years.

"Deflation is our top macroeconomic concern and today's PPI offers signs of relief," said analysts with ANZ Research in a note.

They attributed the uptick to prices for commodities such as oil and iron ore rebounding since the beginning of the year, and a lower basis for comparison as producer prices fell sharply last year.

Even so, it marked the 49th consecutive monthly fall in producer prices as overcapacity in manufacturing drags on China's growth.

The consumer figures were driven by food price inflation of 7.6 percent, with fresh vegetable prices jumping 35.8 percent year-on-year and pork prices up a hefty 28.4 percent.

NBS analyst Yu Qiumei said vegetable prices were boosted by a cold snap that affected supplies, while pig farmers had previously cut supplies in the face of long-term low prices.

But pork price inflation should ease, Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics said in a note, as producers have increased pig numbers recently, "which will help keep a lid on inflation".

Zhao Yang of Nomura said that while consumer inflation was "lower than our expectation", it nevertheless "enhances our belief" that concerns about runaway inflation will not restrict further monetary easing.

But ANZ analysts revised their forecast of three rate cuts this year to one, and said the decrease in deflationary pressure suggests the People's Bank of China will use "less aggressive" monetary policies to meet its targets.

China's economic slowdown will hit growth in developing East Asia and the Pacific from this year until at least 2018, the World Bank said Monday, warning of volatile global markets and urging caution.

Regional growth is forecast to slow from 6.5 percent in 2015 to 6.3 percent this year and 6.2 percent in 2017 and 2018, the bank said in its latest outlook.

However, Southeast Asian economies led by Vietnam and the Philippines are still expected to see healthy expansion, with both forecast to see growth rates of more than 6.0 percent, it said.

The bank said the regional outlook reflected China's gradual shift to slower, more sustainable growth, expected at 6.7 percent this year and 6.5 percent in 2017 and 2018, from 6.9 percent in 2015.

China is in the midst of reforms as it moves to make domestic consumption a key economic growth driver instead of exports and as manufacturing gives way to services taking on a bigger role in the economy.

"Continued implementation of reforms should support the continued rebalancing of domestic demand," the report said on the Chinese economy.

"In particular, growth in investment and industrial output will moderate, reflecting measures to contain local government debt, reduce excess industrial capacity and reorient fiscal stimulus toward social sectors."

Victoria Kwakwa, incoming World Bank East Asia and Pacific vice president, said in a statement that the region's developing countries accounted for "almost two-fifths of global growth" last year.

"The region has benefited from careful macroeconomic policies, including efforts to boost domestic revenue in some commodity-exporting countries. But sustaining growth amid challenging global conditions will require continued progress on structural reforms," she said.

- Major drag -

The forecasts were made against a backdrop of slowing world growth, weak global trade, low commodity prices and volatile financial markets, with China's economic slowdown a major drag.

Excluding China, regional growth is projected to pick up from 4.7 percent last year to 4.8 percent this year and 4.9 percent in 2017 and 2018, powered by Southeast Asia's robust economies, the bank said.

"Among the large developing Southeast Asian economies, the Philippines and Vietnam have the strongest growth prospects, both expected to grow by more than 6.0 percent in 2016," it said.

"In Indonesia, growth is forecast at 5.1 percent in 2016 and 5.3 percent in 2017, contingent on the success of recent reforms and implementation of an ambitious public investment programme."

Vietnam is forecast to grow 6.5 percent this year, 6.4 percent in 2017 and 6.3 percent in 2018, down from 6.7 percent last year.

Expansion for the Philippines is seen at 6.4 percent this year and 6.2 percent in 2017 and 2018 from 5.8 percent in 2015.

The region, however, faces "elevated risks" from a weaker-than-expected recovery in advanced economies and from the possibility of China's slowdown being steeper than anticipated, said World Bank chief regional economist Sudhir Shetty.

"This is a very volatile time for the global economy. This is a time for all countries to be cautious," he told reporters in Asia during a video conference call from Washington.

"There is not a lot of room to manoeuvre on the macroeconomic side," he warned.

Countries should "rebuild fiscal buffers because... there's going to be bad shocks down the road, which will require the use of fiscal policy," he said.

Shetty also called on countries to continue with flexible exchange rates "to adjust to whatever shocks there are" and to push through with needed structural reforms.

East Asia and the Pacific under the World Bank covers China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Mongolia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands and East Timor.


Thanks for being here;
We need your help. The SpaceDaily news network continues to grow but revenues have never been harder to maintain.

With the rise of Ad Blockers, and Facebook - our traditional revenue sources via quality network advertising continues to decline. And unlike so many other news sites, we don't have a paywall - with those annoying usernames and passwords.

Our news coverage takes time and effort to publish 365 days a year.

If you find our news sites informative and useful then please consider becoming a regular supporter or for now make a one off contribution.
SpaceDaily Contributor
$5 Billed Once


credit card or paypal
SpaceDaily Monthly Supporter
$5 Billed Monthly


paypal only


.


Related Links
The Economy






Comment on this article via your Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, Hotmail login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle

Previous Report
POLITICAL ECONOMY
Follow the money: how Hong Kong helps outflow of Chinese cash
Hong Kong (AFP) April 7, 2016
The Panama Papers leak has put the spotlight on Hong Kong as a hub for setting up offshore firms, with much of the money flowing through the city coming from mainland China. Revelations Thursday that more than 16,300 of Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca's active shell companies were incorporated through its Hong Kong and China offices - 29 percent of the worldwide total - show the lengt ... read more


POLITICAL ECONOMY
Vibrations make large landslides flow like fluid

It's home bittersweet home for returning Iraqi migrants

To flee Lebanon's trash crisis, family heads to Syria

Red Cross says more funds needed in wake of Fiji super cyclone

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Artificial molecules

'Self-healing' plastic could mean better bandages, tougher phone cases

New understanding of liquid to solid state transition discovered

New metallic glass bounces

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Study: Ritual human sacrifice maintained social stratification

West Coast scientists sound alarm for changing ocean chemistry

Coral reefs highlight the key role of existing biodiversity

Ocean scientists want action plan to combat seawater chemistry changes

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Canada must establish new Arctic shipping policies: report

Ice Age Antarctic Ocean gives clue to 'missing' atmospheric carbon dioxide

Plant gases can counteract Arctic climate change

North Atlantic played pivotal role in last great climate tipping point

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Can urban gardeners benefit ecosystems while keeping food traditions alive?

China arrests six over fake infant formula: government

Agriculture expansion could reduce rainfall in Brazil's Cerrado

Study finds wide-reaching impact of nitrogen deposition on plants

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Fiji residents ordered to stay inside as cyclone looms

Pakistan searches for 23 people trapped by landslides

Alaska researchers improve their 'hearing' to detect volcanic eruptions

Rescuers race to reach thousands stranded by rains in Pakistan

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Primate populations suffer as a result of Congolese warfare

Senegal to beef up military as security threat grows

France at odds with US over UN police presence in Burundi

Djibouti's strategic position draws world's armies

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Global competition shows technology aids weight loss

Neuronal feedback could change what we 'see'

Study of Japanese hunter-gatherers suggests violence isn't inherent

Study: Indonesian 'hobbits' likely died out sooner than thought









The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2024 - Space Media Network. All websites are published in Australia and are solely subject to Australian law and governed by Fair Use principals for news reporting and research purposes. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA news reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. All articles labeled "by Staff Writers" include reports supplied to Space Media Network by industry news wires, PR agencies, corporate press officers and the like. Such articles are individually curated and edited by Space Media Network staff on the basis of the report's information value to our industry and professional readership. Advertising does not imply endorsement, agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) Statement Our advertisers use various cookies and the like to deliver the best ad banner available at one time. All network advertising suppliers have GDPR policies (Legitimate Interest) that conform with EU regulations for data collection. By using our websites you consent to cookie based advertising. If you do not agree with this then you must stop using the websites from May 25, 2018. Privacy Statement. Additional information can be found here at About Us.