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China's factory output, retail sales see surprise jump in October
by AFP Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) Nov 15, 2021

China's economy showed signs of stabilising in October, according to data on Monday, with retail sales and factory output beating expectations as a power supply crisis appeared to ease.

The recovery in the world's second biggest economy has been losing steam for much of the year after a swift bounceback from harsh lockdowns to contain Covid-19, with officials earlier citing an "unstable and uneven" economic rebound.

Power outages in recent months caused by emission reduction targets, the surging price of coal, and supply shortages also had impacted some factory production.

But industrial production grew 3.5 percent on-year last month, up from September, said the National Bureau of Statistics, as China worked to boost coal production and ease the energy shortage. A survey of economists by Bloomberg News tipped a 3.0 percent expansion.

However, NBS spokesman Fu Linghui cautioned Monday that the "international environment remains complex and severe" with many uncertainties, adding that China needs to "work harder to maintain economic stability and recovery".

"While electricity shortages and production cuts hampered output in early October, we don't think they are a significant problem anymore," said Louis Kuijs of Oxford Economics on Monday.

He added that this follows "a range of policy measures to boost coal production and lower coal prices".

But economic momentum remained weak in October, he said, "with the real estate downturn weighing on industry and a new wave of Covid outbreaks dampening household consumption".

"The slowdown in the property sector continued, which is the key risk for the macro outlook in the next few quarters," said Zhiwei Zhang of Pinpoint Asset Management.

Retail sales rose 4.9 percent on-year, according to latest data, up from September and far exceeding forecasts for 3.7 percent.

But observers warn that this could be bogged down by recent containment measures, reimposed following a fresh virus outbreak in mid-October that has spread to several regions.

While October is traditionally part of China's spending season, Fu said "domestic tourist numbers and income growth were below pre-pandemic levels" during the golden week holiday at the start of the month.

The urban unemployment rate remained at 4.9 percent.

Weakness in the economy is giving the country's central bank a headache as it must try to nurture a recovery while at the same time try to keep a lid on inflation, which is sitting at levels not seen since the mid-1990s.

Asian markets rise but traders keep worried eye on inflation
Hong Kong (AFP) Nov 15, 2021 - Asian equity markets mostly rose Monday to build on a recent run-up following another healthy showing on Wall Street, though inflation concerns continue to dampen the mood.

While optimism about the global economic recovery remains intact, the rise in prices at rates not seen for decades has traders increasingly worried that central banks will have to tighten monetary policy quicker and more sharply than previously thought.

And data out of the United States last week showing consumer sentiment at a 10-year low indicated that the issue is being felt more in people's pockets, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to step in.

However, for now officials are sticking to their view that the inflation spike will be temporary and peter out as supply chain problems are resolved.

National Australia Bank's Ray Attrill warned US President Joe Biden -- who is seeing his popularity take a hit because of the issue -- could suffer.

"If consumer confidence, and (real) spending is seen to be suffering under the weight of six percent consumer price inflation, then it suddenly becomes a political problem for the White House, not just a headache for the Fed," he said in a note.

Still, Wall Street's three main indexes ended last week on a strong note, paring steep losses suffered on Tuesday and Wednesday in reaction to forecast-beating US inflation.

Tokyo enjoyed a strong showing after data showing the economy contracted more than forecast in the third quarter raised hopes the government will unveil a huge stimulus programme to stoke a recovery.

Hong Kong, Sydney, Seoul, Wellington, Singapore, Mumbai, Bangkok and Taipei were also higher but Shanghai, Manila and Jakarta edged down.

London opened slightly lower, Paris was flat and Frankfurt rose.

There was little initial reaction to data showing Chinese retail sales grew far more than expected in October, with traders concerned about a slowdown in economic growth owing to lockdowns put in place to battle fresh virus outbreaks.

The weakness is giving the country's central bank a headache as it must try to nurture a recovery while at the same time keeping a lid on inflation, which is sitting at levels not seen since the mid-1990s.

Meanwhile, traders will be keeping tabs on a virtual meeting between Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping that is planned for Monday evening US time.

The virtual meeting of the presidents comes against a backdrop of rising tensions over several issues including Taiwan, trade, human rights and Hong Kong.

Trading on a new Chinese stock exchange focused on small and medium companies began in Beijing, with investors able to buy and sell more than 80 firms.

Chinese media reported that a number of new stocks on the exchange rose more than 30 percent, while 10 triggered temporary suspensions when they surged more than 60 percent.

The new bourse follows the 2019 launch of a Nasdaq-style board focused on science and technology listings on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Oil prices fell as Biden faces increasing pressure to unlock petroleum reserves to fight inflation.

"There seems to be a limited number of cards the US can use to fight inflation, which are (a strategic reserves) release, rate hike, and easing restrictions on Iranian oil exports," Will Sungchil Yun, at VI Investment Corp, said.

"The quickest solution that has a longer-lasting impact would be Iran. That would push prices down with added supply."


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TRADE WARS
Asian markets rise on outlook hope but eyes on inflation
Hong Kong (AFP) Nov 12, 2021
Asian markets edged up as investors remained bullish about the outlook for the global economy while the dollar extended gains at the end of a week that saw inflation in the United States and China hit highs not seen in decades. A respite in the crisis surrounding troubled Chinese developer Evergrande, and reports that Beijing was planning to ease financial rules on the property sector, also provided some much-needed support to the region. Wall Street offered a broadly upbeat lead after two days ... read more

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