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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China's growth slows in Q3
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) Oct 18, 2011


China said Tuesday its economic growth slowed to 9.1 percent in the third quarter as government efforts to tame inflation and turbulence in Europe and the United States curbed activity.

Growth in the world's second-largest economy slowed from 9.5 percent in the second quarter to its lowest rate in two years, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said.

Analysts said the rise in gross domestic product, which was slightly below the 9.2 percent forecast by economists in a poll by Dow Jones Newswires, pointed to a soft landing for the Chinese economy.

Year-on-year growth in China has slowed for three straight quarters as Beijing -- anxious about soaring costs -- restricted lending and hiked interest rates, while US and European demand for Chinese-made products weakened.

Other economic indicators also suggested China -- the growth engine for the world since the 2008 financial crisis -- was losing steam just as the global economy teeters on the edge of another recession.

"Currently the economic growth is facing an even more complicated external and internal environment," NBS spokesman Sheng Laiyun said.

Despite the "increasing" uncertainty, Sheng told reporters at a briefing that the Chinese economy was "very likely" to maintain "stable and fast growth".

China's weaker-than-expected growth, combined with fresh concerns about the eurozone debt crisis, weighed on regional markets.

Shanghai closed down 2.33 percent, while Japan ended off 1.55 percent, Hong Kong was lower by 4.23 percent, Seoul fell 1.41 percent and Sydney ended down 2.07 percent.

Industrial output growth from China's millions of factories and workshops slowed slightly to 14.2 percent in the first nine months of the year as the downturn in major export markets hurt the country's vast manufacturing sector.

For September alone, production expanded by 13.8 percent year-on-year compared with 13.5 percent in August.

Fixed asset investment, a key measure of government spending on infrastructure, rose 24.9 percent in the first nine months compared with the same period a year ago, down a notch from the first eight months of the year.

Retail sales rose 17.7 percent year-on-year in September and 17.0 percent in the first nine months of 2011.

On a quarterly basis, growth in gross domestic product accelerated to 2.3 percent in the third quarter over the second quarter.

"The Chinese economy continues to chug towards a soft landing," said Alistair Thornton, an analyst at IHS Global Insight in Beijing.

"The greatest downside risk facing Chinas short-term outlook emanates from advanced economies," though "some cracks are also showing on the domestic front".

Moody's economist Alaistair Chan agreed, noting China would not be able to launch "another four trillion yuan ($586 billion) credit stimulus if the global economy tanks again".

China has been the driving force for the world economy and the steady slowdown is likely to fuel concerns about its ability to help debt-laden eurozone countries and the United States.

But Beijing faces a policy dilemma of slowing growth and high inflation, which has the historic potential to trigger social unrest in the country of more than 1.3 billion people.

Despite persistent efforts to rein in soaring household costs, inflation has hovered above six percent for several months and Sheng noted that "macroeconomic control policies should maintain continuity and stability".

The politically sensitive inflation rate dipped slightly to 6.1 percent in September but remained well above the official annual target of four percent.

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Housing prices resilient in Chinese cities
Shanghai (AFP) Oct 18, 2011 - Prices of new homes in Chinese cities remained resilient in September despite Beijing's efforts to cool the property market, official data showed Tuesday.

The cost of new homes in 24 out of 70 Chinese cities tracked by the government rose in September, compared with 23 cities in August, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement.

However, the month-on-month increase in prices in the 24 cities was no more than 0.3 percent, it said.

Independently compiled data released Tuesday by Soufun Holdings, a real estate website operator, showed average prices for new homes nationwide dropped for the first time in a year.

Average prices of new homes in 100 cities tracked by Soufun fell 0.03 percent in September from a month earlier.

"The trend of prices falling will become more obvious in the fourth quarter," Soufun said in a report, adding that the chance of Beijing easing its curbs on the property market is "very slim".

Separately, bureau data showed new home prices in another 29 cities were stable in September from August, while only 17 cities recorded price falls.

In August, prices in 31 cities were flat from the previous month and 16 cities saw price falls.

Soaring property prices are a major source of official and consumer concern in China, with housing costs rising out of the reach of many people and threatening to spark social unrest in the country of more than 1.3 billion.

China has introduced a range of measures aimed at reducing prices, such as bans on buying second homes in some cities, hiking minimum down payments and introducing property taxes.

But officials are treading carefully as the real estate sector is a major driver of economic growth and land sales to developers are an important source of revenue for cash-strapped local governments.

The bureau said 69 cities saw new home prices rise on a year-on-year basis in September.

In Shanghai, the nation's commercial hub, new home prices rose 3.1 percent on the year last month, picking up from 2.8 percent in August.



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