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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China's growth slows in second quarter

Chinese banks distort lending figures: Fitch
Beijing (AFP) July 15, 2010 - Chinese lending in the first half of 2010 has been understated by nearly 200 billion dollars as banks secretly shift loans off their books to meet government requirements, according to a new report. Fitch Ratings estimates new lending in the six-month period was 28 percent, or 192 billion dollars, higher than official data shows as banks covertly repackaged loans into investment products and sold them to investors. Chinese banks officially issued 4.6 trillion yuan (679 billion dollars) in new loans in the first half, but the actual figure was probably closer to 5.9 trillion yuan, Fitch said. "The vast majority of these transactions are not publicly disclosed by Chinese banks... resulting in pervasive understatement of credit growth and credit exposure," Fitch analysts said this week. China has sought to curb rampant bank lending this year after new loans nearly doubled to 9.6 trillion yuan in 2009, fuelling fears of a damaging bubble in the property sector and an explosion of bad debts.

Authorities have set a lending target of 7.5 trillion yuan for this year and ordered banks to increase the amount of money they keep in reserve, effectively limiting the amount they can lend. To get around these restrictions, banks are increasingly moving loans off their balance sheets through "informal securitisation", which Fitch says is masking the true extent of bank lending and bad debts exposure. Demand for these repackaged loans is also growing as investors, faced with negative real savings rates and weak equity markets, seek higher-yielding investments, it said. At the end of the first half, Fitch estimates that more than 2.3 trillion yuan in outstanding loans was sitting off the balance sheets of Chinese banks in investment products -- a more than tenfold increase from the end of 2007. Alarmed at the amount of credit leaking out of the banking system, China's banking regulator earlier this month slapped a temporary ban on informal securitisation, Fitch said.
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) July 15, 2010
China said Thursday its economic growth had slowed in the second quarter, as massive stimulus spending was scaled back and moves to rein in soaring property prices started to bite.

Gross domestic product maintained its double-digit growth for the third quarter in a row, expanding 10.3 percent in the three months to June, according to the national statistics bureau.

The second quarter figure marked a slowdown from the blistering 11.9 percent growth in January-March and 10.7 percent in the last quarter of 2009, after Beijing introduced measures to cool the red-hot economy.

The data added to mounting evidence that the Chinese economy is losing steam, although Beijing has shown no intention of reversing tightening policies, and analysts downplayed the risk of a sharp let-up.

"Generally speaking, the economy is running well," NBS spokesman Sheng Laiyun told reporters.

Sheng said the moderate braking in second-quarter growth would help prevent overheating.

"There are still a lot of difficulties and problems in the course of economic recovery," he added.

The economy grew 11.1 percent in the first half of 2010 compared with the same period a year earlier, the data showed.

Analysts said growth was expected to slip to single digits in the second half, but dismissed the idea of any serious troubles in the short term.

"Despite the slowing growth, we think the chance for double-dip in China is quite small as China's pragmatic policy makers are quite flexible on policy stance," said Lu Ting, an economist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch.

"They still have a deep pocket to buffer any big slowdown."

The closely watched consumer price index, the main gauge of inflation, rose 2.9 percent year-on-year in June, compared with 3.1 percent the previous month, the statistics bureau said.

The slowdown puts inflation back within Beijing's three-percent inflation target for the year.

Inflation was up 2.6 percent in the first half of 2010 from a year earlier.

Morgan Stanley economist Wang Qing said there was a "high probability" the government would increase its 7.5 trillion yuan (1.1 trillion dollars) bank lending target for this year as inflation continues to ease.

China's fixed asset investment in urban areas, a measure of government spending on infrastructure and a key driver of the economy, rose 25.5 percent in the first half from the same period last year, the government said.

Industrial output from the country's millions of factories and workshops increased 17.6 percent on year in the six-month period.

Retail sales, a key measure of consumer spending, rose 18.2 percent in the first half of 2010 from a year ago.

Recent data also showed bank lending, real estate prices and imports all slowed in June from the previous month, while surveys of purchasing managers at factories across China showed manufacturing activity eased last month.

Beijing has shown no intention of altering its policy tightening stance despite signs the economy is cooling, and has begun to rein in the huge stimulus spending put in place in the wake of the global financial crisis.

"It's more of a wait-and-see attitude from Beijing's leaders," said Ken Peng, a Beijing-based economist for Citigroup.

In recent weeks, China also has slightly loosened its grip on the yuan exchange rate by allowing the currency to trade more freely against the dollar, while export tax rebates on some products have been removed.

China's central bank said late Thursday it would keep its managed float currency regime, saying it was "essential for economic restructuring" and in the country's long-term interest.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said last month he believed the economy was moving in the "expected direction", which was interpreted as a sign that the government planned to stick to current policies.

Earlier President Hu Jintao, in a speech to the Group of 20 summit in Canada, called for caution in exit strategies from economic stimulus programmes to safeguard the global recovery.



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