As wealthy countries scramble to buy up the limited supply of big-name coronavirus vaccines, China is stepping in to offer its homegrown jabs to poorer countries. But the largesse is not entirely altruistic, with Beijing hoping for a long-term diplomatic return.

The strategy carries multiple possible benefits: deflecting anger and criticism over China's early handling of the pandemic, raising the profile of its biotech firms, and both strengthening and extending influence in Asia and beyond.

"There is no doubt China is practising vaccine diplomacy in an effort to repair its tarnished image," Huang Yanzhong, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), told AFP.

"It has also become a tool to increase China's global influence and iron out... geopolitical issues."

Stung by criticism of its handling of the emergence of the coronavirus in Wuhan, China has made much of its own ability to get its own outbreak under control, with state media carrying pictures of life-as-normal at pool parties and sporting events.

In the early months of the pandemic, Beijing hurried to export millions of masks and gowns, and sent medical teams to help strained healthcare systems in Europe and Africa.

Now, with major Western pharmaceutical companies beginning to bring their vaccines to market, China is rolling out its own versions -- signing agreements to supply millions of doses, including to countries that have a sometimes-prickly relationship with Beijing.

- Seizing the mantle -

Chinese diplomats have inked deals with Malaysia and the Philippines, both of which have previously complained about Beijing's expansionist ambitions in the South China Sea.

In August, Premier Li Keqiang promised priority vaccine access to countries along the Mekong river, where a devastating drought has been worsened by Chinese dams built upstream.

"China's 'vaccine diplomacy' is not unconditional," Ardhitya Eduard Yeremia and Klaus Heinrich Raditio said in a paper published this month by the Singapore-based Yusof Ishak institute.

"Beijing may use its vaccine donations to advance its regional agenda, particularly on sensitive issues such as its claims in the South China Sea," they added.

The move by President Xi Jinping to offer up a Chinese vaccine worldwide as a "public good" also allows Beijing to paint itself as a leader in global health, said the CFR's Huang, seizing a mantle left untended as the US retreated under Donald Trump's "America First" doctrine.

Washington is notably absent from a global alliance of 189 countries that have pledged to distribute vaccines equitably. Beijing signed up in October as its drugmakers launched final stage trials.

But this programme has only secured enough doses to cover 20 percent of the population of low- and middle-income countries by the end of next year -- offering a commercial opportunity.

China is ramping up production facilities to make one billion coronavirus shots next year -- and, having largely tamed the outbreak at home, it will have a surplus to sell.

- 'Health silk road' -

If China can capture just 15 percent of the market in middle and low-income countries, it would net around $2.8 billion in sales, according to an estimate by Essence Securities, a Hong Kong-based brokerage firm.

"Everyone is clamouring for a vaccine and Beijing is in a good position to tap gold at the bottom of the pyramid," said an analyst at the company, who declined to be named.

The global inoculation drive also requires storage facilities and cold chains to transport the doses.

Such projects dovetail nicely with Xi's $1 trillion infrastructure push -- the Belt and Road Initiative -- which has otherwise taken a hit because of the pandemic, said Kirk Lancaster of the CFR.

E-commerce giant Alibaba has already built warehouses in Ethiopia and Dubai that will serve as vaccine distribution hubs for Africa and the Middle East.

Beijing is constructing vaccine production facilities in countries like Brazil, Morocco and Indonesia that have participated in global trials by Chinese drugmakers.

And China has promised a $1 billion loan to Latin American and Caribbean nations to fund procurement.

Chinese firms will be able to piggyback on this infrastructure further down the line.

"All these efforts, branded as the 'Health Silk Road', are helping China redeem its national reputation while opening up new markets for its companies," Lancaster said.

- Trust gap -

However, there is a fly in the ointment.

China has four vaccines in the final stages of development, and is well advanced with mass human testing in a number of countries, including Brazil, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey.

Millions more at home have already received a jab.

But unlike vaccines being developed by Moderna, AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson, little information has been published about the safety or efficacy of Chinese vaccines.

The country's communist authorities -- who control everything from universities to regulators -- are allergic to public scrutiny.

"The lack of transparency in China's system means that thousands (inside the country) have already received Chinese vaccines without the relevant testing data having being published," Natasha Kassam, a China policy analyst at the Lowy Institute, said.

She said that the lack of data "will cause alarm" during a global rollout.

Chinese vaccine makers also have chequered reputations, after major scandals at home involving expired or poor quality products.

All of which means overseas buyers are cautious.

Chinese vaccine frontrunners Sinovac and Sinopharm had pre-orders for fewer than 500 million doses by mid-November, according to data from London consultancy Airfinity -- mostly from countries that have participated in trials.

AstraZeneca, meanwhile, has pre-orders for 2.4 billion doses, and Pfizer has about half a billion orders.

Wider trust in Beijing has also plummeted this year, with a 14-nation study by the Pew Research Center finding a sharp deterioration in perceptions of the country.

"(Societies) that have increasing distrust in China are less likely to trust a Chinese-led vaccine candidate," Kassam said.

Indonesia places risky bet on Chinese coronavirus vaccines
Jakarta (AFP) Dec 10, 2020 - Indonesia is betting that China-made coronavirus vaccines can help it tackle one of the worst outbreaks in Asia, but analysts warn it is a wager that could leave them holding a high-interest diplomatic IOU.

Beijing has promised poorer nations priority access to its inoculations, in an attempt to repair an image tarnished by the pandemic, which started in the central Chinese city of Wuhan.

This week, Indonesia received 1.2 million doses of a Covid-19 vaccine made by China's Sinovac, with another 1.8 million set to arrive next month, but experts say this access could have strings attached.

"China's 'vaccine diplomacy' is not unconditional," Ardhitya Eduard Yeremia and Klaus Heinrich Raditio said in a paper published this month by the Singapore-based Yusof Ishak Institute.

"Beijing may use its vaccine donations to advance its regional agenda, particularly on sensitive issues such as its claims in the South China Sea."

Indonesia started human trials of the Sinovac vaccine this summer, and it has not yet been approved by Chinese or Indonesian regulators.

Jakarta has signed deals for more than 350 million vaccine doses from different suppliers, including AstraZeneca, but the majority will come from Chinese suppliers, including Sinovac and Sinopharm, according to a Duke University vaccine tracking project.

"The vaccine cooperation with China is the most high profile," said Evan Laksmana, a senior researcher at the Jakarta-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

"That creates potential implications down the line (and) to what extent Indonesia would be highly dependant on the Chinese medical supply chain over the long run."

Indonesia, the world's fourth-most populous nation with 270 million people, has reported more than half a million coronavirus infections and around 18,000 deaths. Low rates of testing means these official figures are widely thought to be well below the reality.

- 'Clever balancing game' -

China is Indonesia's top trading partner and the Southeast Asian nation is home to numerous projects, including a high-speed train line, that are part of Beijing's globe-spanning Belt and Road infrastructure building blitz.

However, the relationship has its problems.

In January, Indonesia deployed fighter jets and warships to patrol the Natuna islands after Chinese coast guard and fishing vessels entered the area on the edge of the South China Sea.

Jakarta has since toned down its response, turning to diplomatic protests instead.

The United States views Jakarta as a key strategic partner as it pushes back against China's growing influence and controversial military build-up in the South China Sea.

"At the moment, Indonesia is playing a rather clever balancing game in order to avoid identification with just one of the two great powers," said Marcus Mietzner, an associate professor at Australian National University.

"(Indonesia) has already made it known that it would not accept a potential Chinese request to build a military base in Indonesia. While it is not clear whether China actually made such a request, its rejection was noted with great satisfaction in Western capitals."

But with the US epidemic surging, Washington is focused on fighting the coronavirus at home and may not be able to knock Beijing off its vaccine diplomacy blitz.

And despite some disputes, the relationship with China remains crucial for Jakarta, and it may find itself indebted diplomatically to Beijing because of the vaccines.

"So far, there is yet to be any serious quid pro quo with regards to the vaccine," said researcher Laksmana.

"But everyone in Jakarta is aware... it would be harder for us to make a series of moves in foreign policy or something else that might (damage) the relationship with China."

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