The 27-nation European Union has pledged to be carbon neutral by 2050, and set a first interim target for 2030: to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent compared with 1990 levels.
For the next milestone, 2040, working documents suggest the European Commission will aim for a net drop of 90 percent -- which would mean roughly the same pace of cuts as it has pledged for 2020-2030.
But this time around, Brussels has to factor in growing discontent -- illustrated by the farmer protests of recent weeks -- over the social and economic impact of its much-vaunted Green Deal.
After successfully tackling the green transition in transport, energy and industry, the Green Deal has found itself on a collision course with the farming world -- and its champions in the European Parliament.
Across Europe, on the right of the political spectrum, there is an increasingly vocal backlash to the sweeping set of policies aimed at meeting the bloc's climate targets, and several leaders in the bloc are now calling for a "pause" in new environmental rules.
The EU's climate commissioner, Wopke Hoekstra, last month warned the bloc needed to keep standing "on two legs" -- with its climate ambition on one side, and on the other "making sure our businesses stay competitive, there is a just transition."
- 'Leave no one behind'-
Striking that balance is at the heart of a joint letter to Brussels, sent by 11 states including France, Germany and Spain, and seen by AFP.
Together they urge the commission to set an "ambitious EU climate target" for 2040.
But the states also call for a "fair and just transition," that should "leave no one behind, especially the most vulnerable citizens".
With far-right and nationalist parties predicted to make significant gains in June's European elections, the climate debate has turned politically explosive.
The EU's executive arm was obligated to submit new post-2030 climate projections within six months of December's COP28 climate conference.
The targets laid out on Tuesday will be a simple recommendation.
But the next European Commission, to be appointed after the elections, will be tasked with turning it into legislation for member states and EU lawmakers to consider ahead of next year's COP30 climate conference.
The bloc's 2040 targets are expected to rely in part on the capture and storage of ambitious volumes of carbon dioxide -- incensing campaigners who criticise the technologies as untested and want to see gross emissions cut pledges instead.
But even so, the plan would require a sizeable effort from every sector of the economy -- from power generation to farming, which accounts for 11 percent of EU emissions.
- 'Very ambitious' -
Pascal Canfin, chair of the European Parliament's environment committee, doubts the bloc will need a second Green Deal.
From now until 2030, he says, "the job is done," with a "massive transformation" of society already underway.
But "if we don't keep moving, we won't meet the end target," he warned.
"One of the issues at stake in this election is whether or not we pursue the Green Deal."
For Canfin, Tuesday's target announcement is also a way to force the EU's politicians to show their colours on the climate issue.
Some of the strongest resistance to tougher environmental action is coming from the centre-right European People's Party (EPP) -- from which European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen hails.
The EPP's Peter Liese says a more cautious stance is justified.
"It's easy to fix a figure," he said, but as the bloc has been implementing its existing 2030 target, "we see more and more how ambitious it is."
"It's more difficult to really make the transition happen in industry and also with the citizens."
Liese considers a 90-percent emissions cut to be a "very ambitious" target for 2040, and stresses the need for "the right conditions, the right policy framework."
"We need to take people along," he said, advocating targeted help for low-income families for whom, for instance, investing in an electric car may be entirely out of reach.
On that front, Elisa Giannelli, of the E3G climate advocacy group, had a similar message, urging the EU to keep the social impact of its climate policies front of mind.
"Getting this wrong," she said, "would allow conservative and populist voices to set the direction of the next steps."
EU unveils 2040 climate goal under pressure from farmer protests
Brussels (AFP) Feb 6, 2024 -
The European Union on Tuesday unveils its climate targets for 2040 and a roadmap for the next stage of its energy transition, with the bloc reeling from a farmer revolt against green reforms just months before European elections.
In a sign of how politically fraught the issue has become, European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen gave key ground to the farmer movement on Tuesday by deciding to bury a plan to halve chemical pesticide use by the end of this decade.
The commission's original proposal "has become a symbol of polarisation", she acknowledged to the European Parliament, noting that the legislation had stalled due to divisions between EU lawmakers and member countries.
The concession, made hours before the 2040 climate announcement, came as farmers converged outside the parliament building in another protest over shrinking incomes and rising production costs.
The 27-nation European Union has already committed to a 55-percent cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, as it seeks to become carbon neutral by 2050.
For the next milestone, 2040, working documents suggest the European Commission will aim for a drop of 90 percent, compared to 1990 levels.
But this time Brussels has to factor in growing discontent -- illustrated by the snowballing farmer protests of recent weeks -- over the social and economic impact of its much-vaunted Green Deal.
Far-right and anti-establishment parties have latched onto the farmers' movement and are predicted to make big gains in June elections to choose the members of the next EU assembly.
That vote will also lead to a new commission late this year. Von der Leyen has not yet said whether she intends to seek a new mandate at its helm.
There is a vocal backlash from some industries to the bloc's climate policies and several national leaders are now calling for a "pause" in new environmental rules.
The EU's climate commissioner, Wopke Hoekstra, last month warned the bloc needed to stand by its climate ambition while "making sure our businesses stay competitive".
- 'Leave no one behind'-
Striking that balance is at the heart of a joint letter to Brussels, sent by 11 states including France, Germany and Spain, and seen by AFP.
Together they urge the commission to set an "ambitious EU climate target" for 2040.
But the states also call for a "fair and just transition" that should "leave no-one behind, especially the most vulnerable citizens".
The targets laid out on Tuesday will be a simple recommendation.
They will be accompanied by new post-2030 climate projections the commission was required to produce within six months of December's UN climate negotiations (COP28).
The next European Commission will be tasked with turning the outline into proposed legislation ahead of next year's international climate summit (COP30).
The bloc's 2040 targets are expected to rely in part on the capture and storage of ambitious volumes of carbon dioxide -- incensing climate campaigners who criticise the technologies as untested and want to see gross emissions-cut pledges instead.
Even so, the plan would require a sizeable effort from every sector of the economy -- from power generation to farming, which accounts for 11 percent of EU greenhouse gas emissions.
- 'Very ambitious' -
Some of the strongest resistance to tougher environmental action comes from the centre-right European People's Party (EPP), from which von der Leyen hails.
The EPP's Peter Liese says a more cautious stance is justified.
"It's easy to fix a figure," he said, but as the bloc has been implementing its existing 2030 target, "we see more and more how ambitious it is".
Liese considers a 90-percent emissions cut to be a "very ambitious" target for 2040 and stresses the need for "the right conditions, the right policy framework".
Elisa Giannelli, of the E3G climate advocacy group, urged the EU to keep the social impact of its climate policies front of mind.
"Getting this wrong," she said, "would allow conservative and populist voices to set the direction of the next steps."
The United Nations climate change organisation said in November the world was not acting with sufficient urgency to curb greenhouse gas emissions and thus limit global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial emissions.
With temperatures soaring and 2023 expected to be recorded as the warmest year so far in human history, scientists say the pressure on world leaders to curb planet-heating greenhouse gas pollution has never been more urgent.
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