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WATER WORLD
El Nino unlikely to bring drought-ending rains to California
by Brooks Hays
Los Angeles (UPI) Mar 9, 2015


disclaimer: image is for illustration purposes only

Scientists have been waiting for nearly two years for a concentration of warming surface water in the Pacific to develop into what known as El Nino. Last week, NOAA announced that it had.

But the latest iteration of El Nino is rather weaker, and climatologists suggest its influence on weather patterns will likely be diminished. Researchers give the conditions a 50 to 60 percent chance of lasting through the summer.

"We're basically declaring El Nino," Michelle L'Heureux, a forecaster at NOAA, told Scientific American. "It's unfortunate we can't declare a weak El Nino."

Because of its late arrival and the system's weak connection between water and atmosphere, El Nino is unlikely to drive heavy rains towards drought-stricken California.

El Nino is a phenomenon know to happen every two or three years, whereby warmer ocean water in the western and central equatorial Pacific dips deeper than usual, preventing upwelling of cold water and enabling surface water to warm faster and more intensely.

When this process becomes strong enough to begin influencing the atmosphere, wind directions and weather conditions, an El Nino is declared.

"Due to the expected weak strength, widespread or significant global impacts are not anticipated," NOAA officials wrote in a press release. "However, certain impacts often associated with El NiƱo may appear in some locations during the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015."

Though conditions are unlikely to influence California's weather patterns, NOAA says it's possible that rains could be a bit more intense throughout the Gulf Coast this spring and summer.


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More weather tantrums predicted for 'La Nina' says study
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La Nina, a weather phenomenon that periodically causes devastating droughts and storms, will likely occur more frequently and more violently this century as a result of global warming, researchers said Monday. An exceptionally harsh La Nina like the 1998-9 event which killed thousands of people and displaced millions, will become almost twice as common in the 21st century, according to their ... read more


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