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POLITICAL ECONOMY
Few signs of life in 'China's Manhattan'
by Staff Writers
Tianjin, China (AFP) May 20, 2015


Moody's: Upstream defaults could double
New York (UPI) May 20, 2015 - The default rate for oil and gas companies with lower credit ratings could more than double in the coming year, Moody's Investors Service said.

Moody's estimates the default for oil and gas companies with lower credit ratings – B2 or lower – will increase from 2.7 percent to 7.4 percent by March.

Quicksilver Resources, a Texas company focused on North American shale, is among the smaller companies filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy this year. British energy company BG Group, meanwhile, was acquired by Royal Dutch Shell as low oil prices forced companies to find ways to streamline capital.

Oil prices started the year around the $50 per barrel range, but have since recovered to near $65 per barrel for the global benchmark Brent.

"With a gradual recovery in energy prices, the weaker oil and gas issuers are at a much greater risk of default," Moody's Senior Vice President David Keisman said in a statement. "The companies on the lower end of spec-grade ratings are the ones that should be most worried."

Moody's said that, as of May 1, 15 percent of the companies with credit ratings of B3 or lower were from the oil and gas sector, the largest share for any U.S. corporate sector. That's about twice the number with lower credit ratings than one year ago.

As a silver lining, the analytics firm said more than 70 percent of the exploration and production companies in the United States with ratings in the B1 range maintained or improved since June 2014, when oil prices started their steady plummet below the $100 per barrel range.

"The oil and gas industry is characterized by boom and bust cycles, and many U.S. exploration and production companies with experienced management teams have seen this game before," Senior Vice President Pete Speer said. "While these companies have successfully navigated the waters thus far, low oil prices will continue to pressure the industry-at-large and these companies' credit metrics."

As the wind whistles through half-finished skyscrapers and over empty boulevards, a development billed as China's answer to Manhattan at times bears out the "ghost town" label some have given it.

Chinese officials hope the towers of the Yujiapu Financial District will one day house a trading centre to rival New York's Wall Street or London's Canary Wharf.

But more than three years after construction began, all but one of the buildings planned for the development in the northern Chinese port city of Tianjin appear unfinished, alongside vacant spaces where others should stand.

As China's economic growth slows after a decades-long boom, these buildings -- many of which still lack exterior walls -- some 150 kilometres from Beijing raise questions about the viability of the scheme, which state media say will cost a total of 200 billion yuan ($32 billion).

Billed as the largest hotel in Asia, the Country Garden Phoenix Hotel is an empty husk, with no builders in sight near its curved exterior.

But there are some signs of life in Yujiapu, a chunk of land peppered with more than a dozen skyscrapers in various states of construction jutting into the Hai River.

Construction workers in hard hats and loose-fitting jackets measure up glass for some buildings, and a shopping centre had a sprinkling of customers on a recent visit by AFP.

But no buildings apart from the mall appear to be finished -- a prospect likely to worry local authorities who reportedly hoped the project would open last summer.

In the "Conch Bay" development on the opposite bank, incomplete buildings have been fenced off and its wide roads see almost no pedestrians.

Several reports have labelled Yujiapu a "ghost town."

But some argue that it could in time achieve its goals, citing the development of Shanghai's bustling Pudong district -- which some dismissed as a waste of money when its was first planned in the 1990s.

The Tianjin project has a powerful backer in Zhang Gaoli, the city's former top official who was promoted to China's all-powerful Politburo Standing Committee in 2012.

Analysts say its success will depend in part on a central government plan to create a new "economic corridor" linking Tianjin with neighbouring Beijing.

"If the two cities become integrated on a policy and economic level, I think that Yujiapu is really promising," said Zhu Guozhong, of Peking University's Guanghua School of Management.

On the side of one of Yujiapu's unfinished tower blocks, a huge banner listed a phone number, seemingly inviting inquiries for office space.

When AFP called it turned out to be a real estate agency -- but the woman who answered said she had not heard of the project.


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