Earth Science News
SHAKE AND BLOW
Fleeing drought, vulnerable populations face flood risk in most African countries
Nighttime lights can show increases in populations living along rivers during drought. Credit: NASA Worldview
Fleeing drought, vulnerable populations face flood risk in most African countries
by Staff Writers for AGU News
Washington DC (SPX) Dec 22, 2023

In 80% of African countries, moved toward rivers and into cities during drought, increasing the number of people living in flood-risk areas in recent decades, according to a new study. This resettlement pattern will likely intensify in coming decades as climate change is expected to make droughts more frequent and severe.

"It's a cycle that exacerbates how many people are negatively impacted by drought, and not only in the ways we might normally expect," said Serena Ceola, a hydrologist at the University of Bologna in Italy who led the study. "As regional climates change and both droughts and floods become bigger problems, more people will struggle to find a safe place to settle. People may move from one drought-affected place to another or move somewhere that just poses different climate risks."

In Somalia, for example more than 3.8 million people have been displaced in part by drought over the last three years. Many of those climate refugees sought shelter near rivers, where farming could resume, but heavy rains and flash floods then displaced more than half a million people.

The study was published in Earth's Future, which publishes interdisciplinary research on the past, present and future of our planet and its inhabitants. Prior to this study, research on drought-driven migrations in Africa focused on single countries or specific drought events, limiting scientists' understanding of how drought influences patterns of human settlements at large scales. The new study is the first to examine changes in human settlement patterns associated with droughts on a continental scale.

"We want the whole society to be aware of just how many people are moving from one climate threat to another," Ceola said.

Untangling Drought
Droughts may push people closer to rivers to continue agricultural activities, and others may adapt by moving to cities, which offer diverse economic opportunities when drought limits agriculture. Scientists have hypothesized that drought can be a main driver of human displacement, but many factors - often inextricably linked to drought itself - can contribute to displacement. Drought can exacerbate conflict, political violence and food and job insecurity, each of which can prompt mass migrations on their own.

The researchers chose to focus on drought alone due to its potential impact on many different factors. They used two indices, EM-DAT and SPEI-12, which respectively reflect socioeconomic and evapotranspiration impacts of drought, to look for droughts in 50 African countries from 1992 to 2013. They included in their analyses the years preceding and following the drought to test for strength of the drought signal and lingering effects of drought on human movement.

To determine whether people moved to rivers, the researchers used satellite-based nighttime light detection to check for either changes in existing settlements' luminosities or the development of new settlements. They used annual, country-based World Bank census data to track populations in urban centers.

Where Does Drought Drive People?
The study found people moved toward rivers or urban centers in up to 80% of African countries experiencing droughts as indicated by at least one of the two indices used. During drought years identified by at least one of the indices, about half to three-quarters of all studied countries had settlements move closer to rivers, and one-third to half of countries had urban populations grow. The urban-growth signal could have been weaker than river-based migration because people may move to cities for many reasons, Ceola said.

Seventeen countries experienced droughts according to both drought indices during the study period. Up to 65% of those countries saw increased human movement toward rivers during drought years when the pre-drought year was included in the analysis.

Notably, all countries in southern Africa saw drought-related migration toward rivers based on at least one drought index over the study period. Ceola pointed to Burundi, Guinea Bissau and Namibia as particularly interesting.

The methods have some limitations. Nighttime lights are used as a proxy for human settlements and activities, meaning that the amount of observed light may not reflect the number of people. Smaller concentrations of lights may not show up, and it might leave out the poorest groups that lack enough lights to appear. Limited data for many regions and populations on the continent mean scientists have to get creative with the sources of information available to prepare people and governments for current and future hazards, Ceola said.

"Policy makers need data and detailed information in order to implement strategic planning, support sustainable development and increase the resilience of people living in vulnerable areas. Likewise, people living in those areas need to be aware of the risks and should have the opportunity to freely move to safer locations," Ceola said.

Research Report:"Drought and human mobility in Africa"

Related Links
University of Bologna
Bringing Order To A World Of Disasters
When the Earth Quakes
A world of storm and tempest

Subscribe Free To Our Daily Newsletters
Tweet

RELATED CONTENT
The following news reports may link to other Space Media Network websites.
SHAKE AND BLOW
Ten dead as heavy rains hit south India
New Delhi (AFP) Dec 20, 2023
At least 10 people were killed in floods after intense rainfall in southern India, local media reported Wednesday, weeks after a cyclone triggered intense flooding in the same areas. Hundreds are stranded in the state of Tamil Nadu as water submerged roads, with the airforce dropping 10 tonnes of emergency supplies to those stranded. Footage from news agency Press Trust of India showed entire neighbourhoods underwater, with rescue teams using boats. Tamil Nadu's chief secretary, Shiv Das M ... read more

SHAKE AND BLOW
Bangladesh's 'tiny houses' tackle giant flood challenge

Indonesia nickel plant explosion death toll rises to 18

Indonesian workers protest after deadly blast at nickel plant

China in 'race against time' to house quake victims for winter

SHAKE AND BLOW
L-SAR 01 Satellite Group Begins Operations, Enhancing China's Disaster Response

Chile's state-owned mining giant forms lithium extraction alliance

Quantum Leap in secure communication: Teleporting images using light

NASA's Tech Demo Streams First Video From Deep Space via Laser

SHAKE AND BLOW
Breakthrough in hydrate-based desalination technique unveiled

Surf's up: Big waves pound US West Coast

In coastal communities, sea level rise may leave some isolated

Shrinking Caspian Sea worries secretive Turkmenistan

SHAKE AND BLOW
As the Arctic warms, its waters are emitting carbon

Antarctic octopus DNA reveals ice sheet collapse closer than thought

Third Pole's expanding glacial lakes pose greater flood risks, research reveals

Russia's isolation takes toll on Arctic climate science

SHAKE AND BLOW
Lula vetos part of Brazil's controversial pesticide bill

Chinese appetite for Australian barley is back

Electronic "soil" enhances crop growth

Jordan's mission to save its ancient olive trees

SHAKE AND BLOW
Fleeing drought, vulnerable populations face flood risk in most African countries

Eurostar cancels trains due to flooded UK tunnels

Iceland's volcano eruption no longer visible: met office

Tens of thousands affected as floods hit Thai south

SHAKE AND BLOW
Four dead, about 20 missing, after storms in eastern DRCongo

Last French troops bow out of Niger

ECOWAS delegation in Sierra Leone after 'coup' attempt

Last French troops bow out of Africa's Sahel

SHAKE AND BLOW
North America's first people may have arrived by sea ice highway

To counter effect of facial biases in legal system, researchers suggest new training

Smoking shrinks brain, says study linking cigarettes to Alzheimer's, dementia

Wild birds analyze grunts, whistles made by human honey-hunters

Subscribe Free To Our Daily Newsletters




The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2024 - Space Media Network. All websites are published in Australia and are solely subject to Australian law and governed by Fair Use principals for news reporting and research purposes. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA news reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. All articles labeled "by Staff Writers" include reports supplied to Space Media Network by industry news wires, PR agencies, corporate press officers and the like. Such articles are individually curated and edited by Space Media Network staff on the basis of the report's information value to our industry and professional readership. Advertising does not imply endorsement, agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) Statement Our advertisers use various cookies and the like to deliver the best ad banner available at one time. All network advertising suppliers have GDPR policies (Legitimate Interest) that conform with EU regulations for data collection. By using our websites you consent to cookie based advertising. If you do not agree with this then you must stop using the websites from May 25, 2018. Privacy Statement. Additional information can be found here at About Us.