Gathering in Agadir, Morocco, the 88 countries of the International Whaling Commission (IWC) will tussle over controversial changes to a moratorium that has become an icon of green activism since 1986.

"This is an absolutely critical meeting for the IWC, with an opportunity to break the political deadlock that ravaged the Commission for decades," said Wendy Elliott, species programme manager at WWF International.

The moratorium, say experts, has notched up several successes in saving whale species driven to near-extinction by more than a century and a half of industrial hunting.

Catches have dropped from 70,000 a year in the 1960s, to less than 2,000.

But it also has gaping holes, for Japan, Norway and Iceland have continued to kill whales in defiance of international opinion.

Japan invokes the clause of scientific research while Norway and Iceland say their whaling is sustainable and a legitimate economic activity and have simply refused to adhere to the ban.

The proposal aims at coaxing the three nations back into the IWC mainstream.

No longer renegades, the trio would respect a quota that would be subject to outside scrutiny, supported by a DNA-based monitoring system and liable to be ratcheted down.

Supporters say the system would be more honourable, transparent and practical than today's murky arrangement. But critics say it would legitimise the slaughter of thousands of the world's most majestic mammals and may tempt former whalers back into the hunt.

Christian Maquieria, the IWC's chairman, noted wryly ahead of the June 21-25 meeting that his draft had come under fire from all sides, which he hailed as an encouraging sign that a compromise could be reached.

"No one can win everything, and no one can lose everything," he said.

Under his scheme, Japan, Iceland and Norway would be allowed to kill a total of nearly 12,000 whales by 2020, selected from certain species and specific marine areas.

The annual quota would start at a level about 10 percent below the whalers' catch for the 2008/2009 season.

After five years, the quota would drop by half for two southern hemisphere species, the minke and fin.

In return, whaling nations would surrender the right to spurn the moratorium by invoking unilateral exemptions, as they do today.

What happens after 2020 would be left to further negotiations.

Some angry talk is expected in Agadir, as nations debate the very principle of easing the moratorium, joust over whether whale meat should be barred from international trade and mull scientific evidence as to what is a safe and sustainable size of whale population.

Justin Cooke, a committee member from the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), described the plan as a "sham."

"It gives the impression that catch limits would be based on [scientific assessments], but in fact they are arbitrary results of negotiation."

Trade is also a sticking point.

"We cannot accept a ban on international trade of whale products," said Iceland's Commissioner Tomas Heidar ahead of the meeting. "As a principle, Icelanders (...) cannot accept a ban on trade in products from living marine sources that have been sustainably harvested."

Another risk is that some ex-whaling nations, infuriated at what they see as the renegades' success in flouting the ban, may be tempted to dust off their grenade-tipped harpoons.

South Korea has warned it may submit a request to resume whaling, and some analysts think China and Russia could follow suit.

Those close to the issue say the picture is not black-and-white.

Many nations and most conservation groups have decided that a compromise deal is a lesser evil than the status quo, however distasteful a de-facto lifting of the moratorium might be.

One issue, however, that Australia, Britain and Germany have said they will not budge on is legitimating Japan's factory-ship hunting in the planet's only safe haven for whales, the Southern Ocean Whale Sanctuary.

"Right now, the whaling countries hold the key to a 'peace treaty' for whales. We call upon Japan to agree to stop whaling in the Southern Ocean Whale Sanctuary," said Sue Lieberman, director of international policy for the Pew Environment Group.

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