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POLITICAL ECONOMY
G7 preoccupied with eurozone debt, China 'bubble'

China economy to grow 10 percent in 2010: state think tank
Beijing (AFP) Feb 7, 2010 - A top state-run think tank has forecast that China will return to double digital growth this year, with a 10 percent rise in gross domestic product, state media reported Sunday. The Centre for Forecasting Science at the Chinese Academy of Sciences said GDP could grow by 11 percent in the first quarter of the year, before slightly slowing down for the rest of 2010, the official Xinhua news agency reported. Investment was expected to increase as a result of the government's economic stimulus package, but overall growth in investment for the year would fall to 25 percent, Xinhua quoted a report by the state-run institution as saying. China's GDP, which analysts say could overtake that of Japan, expanded by 8.7 percent in 2009.

It returned to double-digit growth in the fourth quarter last year, with a 10.7 percent growth -- the fastest in two years. A government stimulus package worth four trillion yuan (586 billion dollars) has widely been credited with sustaining growth in a year when much of the global economy was in crisis. But inflation surged towards the end of 2009, sparking concern. The report estimated that China's consumer price index, the main gauge of inflation, would increase by more than three percent in 2010 as an economic revival and liquidity helped drive up prices. Exports, meanwhile, were expected to rise by nearly 17 percent and imports by just under 19 percent, it added, as overseas demand picked up amid a global economic recovery.

China's current account surplus posts first fall since 2001
Beijing (AFP) Feb 5, 2010 - China's current account surplus, a key gauge of a nation's foreign trade, fell in 2009 for the first time in eight years, official data showed Friday, as the global crisis hit exporters last year. China booked a current account surplus of 284.1 billion dollars last year, down 35 percent from 2008, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said in a statement on its website. The figures represents mainly the surplus from goods and services transactions and interest payments involving other countries.

It was the first time since 2001 that China's surplus declined, according to the official Xinhua news agency. The country's exports last year fell 16 percent from the previous year to 1.2 trillion dollars as foreign orders for manufactured goods shrank amid economic contractions in key markets like the United States, the government said previously. As a result, the trade surplus, a key source of friction between China and major trade partners like the United States and Europe, slumped 34.2 percent from the previous year to 196.1 billion dollars in 2009.
by Staff Writers
Iqaluit, Canada (AFP) Feb 5, 2010
Finance ministers and central bankers from leading industrial nations Saturday held a second day of talks in northern Canada as fresh market turmoil cast doubt on a fragile global economic recovery.

Topping the agenda for the final day of "frank" G7 talks was to be growing concerns over eurozone debt as well as the yuan, which China has been accused of keeping deliberately weak to boost exports to the West.

A press conference was due to be held at 13:15 pm (1815 GMT) with Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty due to sum up the debate, being held far from prying eyes in Canada's frigid far north.

The state of the public coffers in Spain and Portugal have been causing growing unease, with investors fearing a scenario similar to that in Greece.

Greece has been placed under unprecedented EU surveillance as it attempts to implement austerity measures to slash its massive debt and a 12.7-percent public deficit, while Portugal's deficit hit 9.3 percent last year, its highest since 1974.

Over dinner Friday, delegates digested Greece's debt crisis and fears that a bubble was developing in China, which is poised to overtake Japan as the world's second largest economy this year, ministers told reporters.

"Fundamentally, (Greece's debt woes) are an issue for the European Union, but a number of countries represented here are EU countries, so it's a matter of concern that I'm sure we'll talk about tonight and tomorrow," Flaherty said Friday.

European Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet said Thursday the high deficit and debt in some countries was placing an "additional burden" on monetary policy and undermining the bloc's stability and growth pact.

By a roaring fire and a bearskin rug, G7 delegates were also to touch on the timing of "exit strategies" from costly stimulus measures undertaken by G7 governments, as well as concerns about their combined debts of more than 30 trillion dollars.

Flaherty had said there would be "major discussions" about China's currency over the weekend.

"This is an issue that cannot be avoided," he told reporters. "It is a G20 issue ... but it is also an issue that concerns Western industrialized countries represented in the G7."

The value of the Chinese currency, which has effectively been pegged to the US dollar since mid-2008, has been a bone of contention between Beijing and its Western trading partners, which say it is kept low to boost exports.

China has kept its yuan weak against the dollar, and critics say this keeps Chinese exports artificially cheap and has fueled a massive trade surplus with the West. China's trade surplus reached 196.1 billion dollars in 2009.

Japanese Finance Minister Naoto Kan, however, said exchange rates were barely mentioned at the dinner that officially kicked off the conference.

Rather, he said he told his counterparts that Japan was preoccupied with "China's economic conditions."

"We're concerned about a bubble" in the Chinese economy, he said.

France, meanwhile, circulated proposals for reforming the global financial system.

The talks formally opened Friday evening in this capital of Canada's Nunavut territory.

But before getting down to business, the Canadians and Europeans went dog-sledding on frozen Frobisher Bay.

The G7 delegates from Canada, the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Britain were joined by officials from the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the European Commission.

With the G20 taking the lead as the world's premier economic forum at meeting in Pittsburgh in September and the rise of China's economic clout, the G7 is now struggling to remain relevant.

The G7 once ran the world economy, but with high unemployment, soaring public debt and subsidized banks, some suggested that G7 nations are now holding it back.



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