"An influenza pandemic comes every 30 years," Reinhard Kurth, head of the Robert-Koch-Institute, a Berlin-based think tank, told German news channel N24. "The last was in 1968, so another one is long overdue ... Panic is wrong, but we need to be cautious, need to be prepared."

The institute earlier this year developed a pandemic contingency plan, which was designed to prepare the country for an outbreak.

His comments come a few days after the Russian government warned the European Union of a dangerous air squadron: Wild migratory birds from Asia and Siberia, some possibly carrying the virus' most dangerous strain, H5N1, are expected to head over Western Europe in the next weeks to try and survive the winter in milder climates.

According to the World Health Organization, H5N1 has killed 57 people in Southeast Asia and led to the slaughter of roughly 140 million birds. Humans acquire the virus by handling live animals. Eating cooked meat is not dangerous, experts say.

The reports of spreading infections in Mongolia, Kazakhstan and Russia, where nearly 140,000 birds died or were slaughtered in connection with the virus, have troubled EU governments.

Last week the EU and Turkey banned the import of live birds and feathers from Russia and Kazakhstan.

The Netherlands passed a directive banning farmers from keeping poultry outdoors to try to prevent the spread of bird flu. A serious outbreak of avian flu in the Netherlands two years ago led to the slaughter of nearly 30 million birds.

Neighboring Germany, though so far unharmed, is nevertheless preparing similar emergency measures. Germany's Agriculture Minister, Renate Kuenast, last Thursday said a directive would require German farmers to bring their birds indoors if the disease spreads into Europe.

"I have a regulation ready, and if I sign it, it will come into effect the next day," she said. "We are expecting the worst."

Kuenast wants to stay in close contact with scientists, health officials and the poultry industry to determine the exact date on which the directive becomes active. A first date was speculated to be Sept. 15.

Health experts would like to see the measure come into effect sooner rather than later.

Although the virus has so far not spread among humans, they fear it could exchange genes with a human flu virus if a person were simultaneously infected with both. The virus could then mutate into a form that can be passed easily between humans. The result would be catastrophic, experts say.

The head of the WHO influenza program, Klaus Stohr, told German public radio NDR if the virus were to mutate, it would spread quickly. It could take just "three to six months" before the infections would cover the entire globe, he said.

The death rate for humans infected with the bird flu is at 50 percent, a rate much higher than the last pandemic, the severe acute respiratory syndrome. Worldwide, experts predict anything between 2 million and 50 million deaths if the virus mutates, the BBC said.

Animal smuggling and tourism are two more causes of concern for EU officials. They are meeting Thursday to discuss EU-wide emergency measures. So far, Italy, which experts believe is at highest risk to get a bird flu, has not prepared a plan to prevent one.

For large poultry farms in Germany, keeping their birds inside should not be a problem, observers say, as most already have cots where their chicken can retreat to.

The outside ban, however, is a problem for small farmers who so far had their stock roam outside, in the backyard or on a small property. Those animals are likely to become aggressive when moved inside, a farmer told German news channel N-TV.

The numerous German private individuals who in rural areas keep a few chickens and geese in their backyard, will all have to register with federal authorities until September, Kuenast said.

In case of a mutation and an outbreak of the bird flu virus in humans in Germany, several important decisions will have to be made, Kurth said. The institute's pandemic contingency plan prepares federal and state governments for such an outbreak, he said.

"Especially the state governments need to catch up to become prepared to deal with an outbreak," he said.

Large amounts of anti-viral medication have to be made available in a short time, and research for vaccination has to be boosted, he said. Even if no human being becomes infected, Kurth said, an outbreak among birds would be "catastrophic for our poultry farming industry."

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