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DEMOCRACY
Hong Kong left deeply polarised by protests: analysts
by Staff Writers
Hong Kong (AFP) Dec 14, 2014


Hong Kong police prepare to swoop on last protest site
Hong Kong (AFP) Dec 15, 2014 - Police prepared Monday to clear Hong Kong's last remaining pro-democracy protest site where just a handful of demonstrators remain, after the main camp was demolished last week to bring an end to more than two months of rallies.

The site in the busy shopping district of Causeway Bay is the smallest of the three camps which sprang up in late September and have paralysed sections of the city, as part of a student-led campaign for free leadership elections.

Activists occupied major traffic arteries in the wake of China's declaration in August that candidates for the city's chief executive elections in 2017 would first be vetted by a loyalist committee, a move campaigners said ensures a pro-Beijing stooge in the leadership role.

The major Admiralty camp which sprawled across a kilometre of multi-lane highway through the heart of the business district was cleared Thursday with more than 200 protesters arrested.

Police cleared the other major protest site in the working class commercial district of Mongkok -- scene of some of the most violent clashes since the campaign began -- in late November.

Hundreds gathered at the neat Causeway Bay camp on Sunday afternoon, many of them tourists and visitors wanting to capture the strings of paper umbrellas and artworks which decorate the site and have become symbols of the movement.

Some had commemorative T-shirts printed while others sang protest songs.

By Monday morning that number had dwindled to around 20 with some packing away tents and belongings. Protesters said their goodbyes, while stickers on the floor read "We'll be back".

"I am prepared to leave. I don't want to get arrested. I want to stay alive for the future confrontations," demonstrator Judy Kong told AFP.

While parts of Admiralty and Mongkok were cleared by bailiffs enforcing injunction orders brought by public transport companies who had been disrupted by the protests, Causeway Bay will be a direct police clearance, without prior bailiffs' action.

Police are set to carry out the clearance some time after 9:30 am (0130 GMT) and will set up a cordon around the area while the operation takes place, they said in a statement Sunday, which warned protesters to leave and clear their belongings.

"If the illegal road occupiers refuse to leave, police will take actions to disperse them and may effect arrest against those who attempt to obstruct police in the execution of duty," the statement said.

Roads around the site which have been closed since September will reopen after the action, police said.

Protesters have vowed to struggle on in their fight for fully fair elections through various means including refusal to pay rent and taxes.

The demolition of Hong Kong's main protest camp ended a pro-democracy occupation that paralysed the city for two months, but the campaign has left the city deeply divided both politically and socially, analysts say.

With the world watching, Hong Kong was transformed from a slick financial hub into a hive of political activism in late September as tens of thousands took to the streets in support of the student-led protests calling for free leadership elections in 2017.

It was the biggest challenge to Beijing's authority since the territory was handed over by Britain to China in 1997, and ignited fierce debate about Hong Kong's future.

Activists occupied major traffic arteries in the wake of China's declaration in August that candidates for the city's chief executive would first be vetted by a loyalist committee, a move campaigners said would see a pro-Beijing stooge take power.

The struggle to reconcile the Western ideals of its colonial heritage with Chinese rule has long fomented an underlying division -- but the protests have cracked the city in two, say analysts.

"The polarisation that we've had is now a much more passionate polarisation and a much more volatile one," Michael DeGolyer of Hong Kong Baptist University told AFP.

While the pro-democracy movement has seen the political awakening of the city's younger generation, it has also inflamed the pro-government camp, DeGolyer says.

"The vociferous, extreme passion of the opponents has clearly been sparked."

Opponents of the movement held their own rallies throughout the protests and voiced fears over the threat to Hong Kong's stability and prosperity -- a line adopted by the city's leadership and Beijing.

The split extends beyond politics and into the fabric of society, said Sonny Lo, an analyst at the Hong Kong Institute of Education.

"Society has been deeply divided among families, between friends, between political parties, so the movement has had a destabilising impact," he told AFP.

With protesters vowing to fight on, analysts predict future confrontations in the face of Beijing's increasing influence on the semi-autonomous city.

"With the deeper penetration of the mainland Chinese political influence on Hong Kong, these social tensions will continue," says Lo.

- 'Flames of nationalism' -

China has refused to budge on its template for the vote and the Hong Kong administration has not offered any concessions in the face of the protests, which both governments branded "illegal".

Pro-democracy legislators and campaigners are waiting to see the outcome of the government's second consultation on the election process -- the first-round report angered the pro-democracy camp by playing down the depth of feeling over free elections.

But while analysts say there may be minor concessions -- such as making the nominating committee for leadership candidates more representative -- they are unlikely to change the bigger picture: that Beijing will maintain a firm grip on Hong Kong politics.

"(Chinese President) Xi Jinping is a hardline leader -- since he came to power he has been stoking the flames of nationalism," said Willy Lam of the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

Though a threat to the city's economic prosperity might spur "a few minor concessions" from the central government, they will only go so far, says Lam.

"Real democracy is just not possible," he says.

Analysts agree that Beijing is unlikely to employ harsh tactics to quash the pro-democracy movement, instead opting for a longer game through softer means.

Though plans to introduce compulsory "national education" promoting patriotism to the mainland were shelved after a massive public backlash in 2012, China will still try to influence education in the city, says Lo, pushing for more "Chinese ingredients" in subjects already on the timetable.

"How to inculcate a deeper understanding of China into the Hong Kong youth, without giving the impression of brainwashing them, will be a huge challenge," he said.

- 'Clear message' -

The pro-democracy movement will have to be more coherent if it wants any realistic chance of negotiating with Beijing, analysts agree -- public support waned over the weeks of protests as the campaign splintered.

Some experts say that could dent support for the democrats at legislative elections in 2016, though others predict a strong performance if the city's youth goes to the polls in force.

Whatever happens next, the impact of the rallies -- symbolised by the umbrellas carried by protesters -- will continue to resonate.

"While the umbrella movement has not been able to secure any tangible concessions on democratic reforms, it has galvanised a significant portion of Hong Kong's population around the ideas of freedoms and democracy," said Surya Deva, a law professor at City University of Hong Kong.

"The movement has changed Hong Kong forever, as people have sent a clear message to the Chinese government that they cannot steamroll everything."

And that message has also reached further than Beijing.

"I am pessimistic about what Beijing will really let go, there will be a limit," says Sebastian Veg, director of the French Centre for Research on Contemporary China (CEFC).

"What will remain is a political culture for a whole generation... (and) even a shift of Hong Kong's reputation, which before was just seen as interested in money, marked by political apathy."


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DEMOCRACY
China media says Hong Kong protest movement 'defeated' after clearance
Hong Kong (AFP) Dec 12, 2014
Chinese state-run media triumphantly declared the Hong Kong pro-democracy movement "defeated" Friday and warned domestic and foreign "hostile forces" against destabilising the city, after police swept away its main protest site. Traffic streamed through the heart of Hong Kong for the first time in more than two months after Thursday's police swoop, which cleared the sprawling camp and saw ne ... read more


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