The seismic shift will see India's population hit 1.4286 billion -- almost three million more than China's 1.4257 billion -- at mid-year, the United Nations Population Fund's State of World Population report forecast.
China has generally been regarded as the world's most populous country since the fall of the Roman Empire but last year its population shrank for the first time since 1960, while India's has continued to rise.
The South Asian giant spreads from the Himalayas to the beaches of Kerala, with 22 official languages, and nearly half its inhabitants are under 25.
The country faces huge challenges providing electricity, food and housing for its growing population, with many of its massive cities already struggling with water shortages, air and water pollution, and packed slums.
According to the Pew Research Centre, the number of people in India has grown by more than one billion since 1950, the year the UN began gathering population data.
China ended its strict "one-child policy", imposed in the 1980s amid overpopulation fears, in 2016 and started letting couples have three children in 2021.
Many blame its falling birth rates on the soaring cost of living, as well as the growing number of women going into the workforce and seeking higher education.
China said on Wednesday that it "implements a national strategy to actively respond to population ageing, promotes the three-child birth policy and supporting measures, and actively responds to changes in population development".
"China's demographic dividend has not disappeared, the talent dividend is taking shape, and development momentum remains strong," said foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin.
- 8 billion -
India has no recent official population data because it has not conducted a census since 2011, with a follow-up in 2021 delayed by the Covid pandemic.
The initiative is now bogged down by logistical hurdles, making it unlikely the massive exercise will begin anytime soon. Some accuse the government of deliberately delaying the count until after national elections next year.
The census will shine a spotlight on how the Indian economy under Prime Minister Narendra Modi is struggling to provide jobs for the millions of young people entering the job market every year.
The new UN report also estimated that the global population will have hit 8.045 billion by mid-2023, by which time almost one in five people on the planet will be Indian.
Other countries, mostly in Europe and Asia, can expect a demographic slump over the coming decades, according to other UN figures published last July.
In Africa, the continent's population is expected to rise from 1.4 to 3.9 billion inhabitants by 2100, with about 38 percent of Earth dwellers living there, compared to around 18 percent today.
The population of the entire planet, meanwhile, is only expected to decline in the 2090s, after peaking at 10.4 billion, according to the UN.
- Sleeping giant -
India is on the frontlines of the effects of climate change, but generates most of its electricity from coal and its efforts will be vital in the global fight to reduce carbon emissions.
The nuclear-armed nation has started to become more assertive on the world stage, pushing for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.
Many Western countries are banking on the world's largest democracy, already a member of the US-led Quad alliance, becoming more of a geopolitical counterweight to China.
But it also co-founded the BRICS grouping with Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa to challenge the dominant US- and European-led global governance structures, and is a member of the Shanghai Co-operation Organization alongside Moscow and Beijing.
New Delhi has resisted Western pressure to freeze out Moscow, opting instead to strengthen trade ties with its long-standing ally and ramping up imports of Russian oil.
Focus on reproductive rights rather than population numbers, UN urges
Geneva (AFP) April 19, 2023 -
Rather than fixating on the impact of the world's soaring population, the world should look at women's reproductive rights to shore up "demographic resilience," the UN said Wednesday.
The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) -- the UN's sexual and reproductive health agency -- acknowledged there was widespread anxiety over the size of the world's population, which is expected to peak at around 10.4 billion during the 2080s.
But the UNFPA said the focus should be on giving women more power to control when and how they have children.
"The question is: 'Can everyone exercise their fundamental human right to choose the number and spacing of their children?'. Sadly, the answer is a resounding no," said UNFPA chief Natalia Kanem.
She said that "44 percent, almost half of women, are unable to exercise bodily autonomy. Unable to make choices about contraception, healthcare and whether or with whom to have sex. And globally, nearly half of all pregnancies are unintended."
She said countries with the highest fertility rates contribute the least to global warming and suffer the most from its impact.
In its flagship annual "State of World Population" report, the UNFPA found the most commonly-held view is that the world's population is too big.
But it said that passing the eight billion mark "should be a reason to celebrate. It is a milestone representing historic advances for humanity in medicine, science, health, agriculture and education".
"It is time to put aside fear, to turn away from population targets and towards demographic resilience -- an ability to adapt to fluctuations in population growth and fertility rate," it said.
- India overtaking China -
"The world population is rapidly reordering itself," Kanem told a press conference.
While the population is now the largest ever seen, "the global average fertility rate is the lowest in living memory".
Kanem said the ranking of the world's most populous countries would change significantly over the next 25 years, with India currently overtaking China at the top.
Eight countries will account for half the projected growth in global population by 2050: the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.
The report said two-thirds of people were living in countries with low fertility.
"This is the first time in human history where not every country is getting bigger," said Kanem.
The countries with the highest fertility rates were all in Africa: Niger (6.7), Chad (6.1), DR Congo (6.1) Somalia (6.1) and Mali and the Central African Republic (5.8).
The territories with the lowest birth rates were Hong Kong (0.8), South Korea (0.9), Singapore (1.0), Macau and San Marino (1.1) and Aruba and China (1.2).
Europe is the only region projected to experience an overall population decline between now and 2050.
The report said the world fertility rate per woman was currently 2.3. Life expectancy is 71 for men and 76 for women.
"All populations are ageing largely because we're living longer lives. Since 1990, the average life expectancy has increased by about a decade," said Kanem.
Twenty-five percent of the world's population is aged 14 or under; 65 percent are aged 15-64 and 10 percent are aged 65 and over.
The report found anxious governments were increasingly adopting policies aimed at raising, lowering or maintaining fertility rates. However, such efforts are very often ineffective.
"Half a million births every year take place among girls aged 10-14... girls too young to consent to sex, girls married off, abused, or both," Kanem added.
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