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POLITICAL ECONOMY
Japan consumer confidence falls after quake

Japan's March trade surplus plunges after tsunami
Tokyo (AFP) April 20, 2011 - Japan's trade surplus plunged 78.9 percent in March from a year earlier as exports fell after a March 11 earthquake and tsunami which triggered a nuclear crisis, the finance ministry said Wednesday. The surplus reached 196.5 billion yen (2.37 billion dollars), still managing to stay in the black for the second straight month, the ministry said. Exports fell 2.2 percent to 5.87 trillion yen (70.9 billion dollars), falling for the first time in 16 months due to reduced shipments of automobiles and vessels, it said. It came slightly below a 2.0 percent decline expected in a joint poll by Dow Jones and the Nikkei.

The fall was led by vehicle exports, which fell 27.8 percent. Exports of ships dropped 10.0 percent, and electronics parts fell 6.9 percent, the ministry said. Imports were up for the 15th straight month, rising 11.9 percent to 5.67 trillion yen, on increased prices of oil and iron ore, the ministry said. The value of oil imports rose 14.8 percent. The value of iron ore imports soared 74.9 percent. Coal imports also rose 39.4 percent. The ministry also said Japanese exports for the year to March rose 14.9 percent to 67.8 trillion yen, while imports rose 15.9 percent to 62.4 trillion. The annual trade surplus rose 3.9 percent to 5.4 trillion yen, the ministry said.
by Staff Writers
Tokyo (AFP) April 19, 2011
Japanese consumer confidence fell in March from the previous month to its lowest since June 2009 as a record earthquake, tsunami and a nuclear emergency cast a shadow over the economy.

Analysts said the data bolstered the view that the March 11 disasters will force the world's third largest economy to contract this quarter amid ongoing power shortages and production shutdowns across key industries.

Many see Japan sliding into a temporary recession after the quake and tsunami devastated infrastructure and manufacturing facilities in the northeast, as the nation plunged into its worst crisis since World War II.

The latest data showed Japanese consumer confidence took a hit, although analysts warned the survey was taken at the early stages of a disaster whose full impact continues to emerge.

The consumer sentiment index fell to 38.6 in March, from a seasonally adjusted 41.2 in February, Cabinet Office data showed. Readings below 50 indicate pessimism outweighing optimism.

It was the lowest reading since 36.6 in June 2009, but beat some forecasts of a plunge to around 30.

Although sales of water and food surged after people stockpiled immediately after the quake and the nuclear crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi plant, consumers have held off spending on areas such as entertainment and travel.

Analysts warn that this mood of voluntary self restraint will exacerbate any downturn.

Japan's consumer confidence has remained below its pre-financial crisis levels and retail sales slumped last year after government subsidies for car purchases were withdrawn and incentives to purchase appliances were reduced.

"The fundamental drivers of consumer spending were already weak before the earthquake struck and are likely to deteriorate further," said Capital Economics in a research note.

"This bias towards austerity will not lift any time soon. For a start, the sheer scale of the human tragedy will continue to weigh on the national mood. The recent upgrading of the official assessment of the severity of the nuclear crisis is clearly a further headwind."

Last week's upgrade of the nuclear emergency at the stricken Fukushima Daiichi plant to the same level of severity as Chernobyl added to uncertainty caused by a disaster which has left nearly 28,000 dead or missing.

Analysts warn Tuesday's survey was taken on the 15th March when the full extent of the disaster was still unclear.

Those surveyed did not have time to better assess the longer-term effect of the disaster on jobs, wages and industrial production, Hidehiko Fujii, chief economist at Japan Research Institute told Dow Jones Newswires.

Tuesday's consumer data echoes the Cabinet Office's March economy watchers survey released earlier in April, a gauge of sentiment among the service sector which plunged the fastest in its 11 year history.

The Bank of Japan's recent Tankan survey showed Japanese business confidence in the outlook for the next three months had plunged.

Japan's domestic sales of new cars, trucks and buses dropped 37 percent from a year earlier last month due to the disasters.

Investors are braced for an upcoming earnings season that is expected to illustrate the initial impact of the quake on profit forecasts.

Many key component manufacturers are based in the worst-hit regions of Japan, their facilities damaged by the 9.0 magnitude earthquake or inundated by the giant wave that followed.

The parts shortage has hit companies and production worldwide.

Toshiba said it now expects to post an operating profit of 240 billion yen ($2.9 billion), a four percent decrease from its January forecast for 250 billion yen. It cut its revenue outlook to 6.4 trillion yen from 6.6 trillion.

The electronics giant was forced to close a small LCD panel plant and a chip-making factory in Japan's quake-hit northeastern region, which has since partially resumed production.

Toshiba is the world's second largest maker of flash memory chips used to store data in hot-selling smartphones, tablet devices and various other consumer electronics, after Samsung Electronics of South Korea.



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