Countries' latest climate plans will deliver just a tiny percentage of the emissions cuts needed to limit global heating to 1.5C, the United Nations said on Tuesday in a damning assessment ahead of the COP26 climate summit.

Just days before the Glasgow meeting, which is being billed as crucial for the long-term viability of the Paris climate deal, the UN's Environment Programme said that national plans to reduce carbon pollution amounted to "weak promises, not yet delivered".

In its annual Emissions Gap assessment, UNEP calculates the gulf between the emissions set to be released by countries and the level needed to limit temperature rises to 1.5C -- the most ambitious Paris Agreement goal.

The summit's organisers say they want countries to commit to keeping Earth on course for the 1.5C goal through redoubled pledges to decarbonise their economies.

But according to UNEP, even the most up-to-date and ambitious plans from around 120 countries puts the world on track to warm 2.7C.

UN chief Antonio Guterres said Tuesday's report showed that the world was "still on track for climate catastrophe".

"As world leaders prepare for COP26, this report is another thundering wake-up call. How many do we need?"

Under the 2015 Paris deal, signatories are required to submit new emissions-cutting plans -- known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs -- every five years, each more ambitious than the last.

UNEP said that most recent commitments would shave 7.5 percent off previously predicted 2030 emissions levels.

To keep on a 1.5C trajectory, a 55-percent reduction is needed, it said.

A 30-percent cut is needed for 2C of warming, a threshold the Paris deal commits nations to keep temperatures "well below".

"To stand a chance of limiting global warming to 1.5C, we have eight years to almost halve greenhouse gas emissions," said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen.

- 'Imminent peril' -

UNEP said that the Covid-19 pandemic led to an "unprecedented" 5.4-percent drop in global emissions in 2020.

However, even this was not enough to narrow the gap between humanity's current emissions trajectory and a 1.5C world.

Putting the challenge into stark perspective, it said that countries needed to slash CO2 and its equivalent in other greenhouse gases by an additional 28 billion tonnes by 2030; carbon dioxide emissions alone are projected to hit 33 billion tonnes in 2021.

Report co-author Anne Ohloff told AFP that it showed there had been "some progress" on emissions since the Paris Agreement.

"The new (NDC) commitments shave off 4 Gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent annually by 2030 compared to the last ones," she said.

"But it's far from sufficient, of course. Overall we are very far from where we should be."

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in August said that Earth could hit the 1.5C threshold as soon as 2030 and be consistently above it by mid-century.

The report on Tuesday said that even if all net-zero pledges were delivered in full, there was a 66-percent chance that temperature rises could be limited to 2.2C.

"There is no appetite for reducing fossil fuel consumption globally at the rate required to meet our climate goals," said Myles Allen, professor of Geosystem Science at the University of Oxford.

This year's Emissions Gap report focused on the role in global heating played by methane, the most potent greenhouse gas.

It found that existing technical measures could reduce man-made methane emissions by 20 percent per year, with little or no additional cost to industry.

It also said that the plans of many of the 49 countries that have made net-zero pledges remained "vague and not reflected in NDCs".

"Overall, a net zero goal must be accompanied by immediate policy action towards ambitious 2030 targets," said Joanna Depledge, from the Cambridge Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource Governance.

"Otherwise, it is mere virtue signalling."

Asia suffered hottest year on record in 2020: UN
Geneva (AFP) Oct 26, 2021 - Asia suffered its hottest year on record in 2020, the United Nations said Tuesday ahead of the COP26 summit, with extreme weather taking a heavy toll on the continent's development.

In its annual "State of the Climate in Asia" report, the UN's World Meteorological Organization said every part of the region had been affected.

"Extreme weather and climate change impacts across Asia in 2020 caused the loss of life of thousands of people, displaced millions of others and cost hundreds of billions of dollars, while wreaking a heavy toll on infrastructure and ecosystems," the WMO said.

"Sustainable development is threatened, with food and water insecurity, health risks and environmental degradation on the rise."

The report comes days before COP26, the UN Climate Change Conference being held in Glasgow from Sunday to November 12.

The report also laid bare the total annual average losses due to climate-related hazards.

China suffered an estimated $238 billion, followed by India at $87 billion, Japan with $83 billion and South Korea on $24 billion.

But when the size of the economy is considered, the average annual losses are expected to be as high as 7.9 percent of gross domestic product for Tajikistan, 5.9 percent for Cambodia and 5.8 percent for Laos.

- Prolonged displacement -

Increased heat and humidity are forecast to lead to an effective loss of outdoor working hours across the continent, with a potential cost of many billions of dollars.

"Weather and climate hazards, especially floods, storms, and droughts, had significant impacts in many countries of the region," said WMO chief Petteri Taalas.

"Combined, these impacts take a significant toll on long-term sustainable development."

Many weather and climate-related displacements in Asia are prolonged, with people unable to return home or integrate locally, the report said.

In 2020 floods and storms affected approximately 50 million people in Asia, resulting in more than 5,000 fatalities.

This is below the annual average of the last two decades (158 million people affected and about 15,500 fatalities) "and is testimony to the success of early warning systems in many countries in Asia", with around seven in 10 people covered.

Asia's warmest year on record saw the mean temperature 1.39 degrees Celsius above the 1981-2010 average.

The 38.0 C registered at Verkhoyansk in Russia is provisionally the highest known temperature anywhere north of the Arctic Circle.

- Glaciers shrinking -

In 2020, average sea surface temperatures reached record high values in the Indian, Pacific and Arctic Oceans.

Sea surface temperatures and ocean warming in and around Asia are increasing more than the global average.

They have been warming at more than triple the average in the Arabian sea, and parts of the Arctic Ocean.

Arctic sea ice minimum extent (after the summer melt) in 2020 was the second lowest on the satellite record since 1979.

There are approximately 100,000 square kilometres of glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau and in the Himalayas -- the largest volumes of ice outside the polar regions and the source of 10 major Asian rivers.

"Glacier retreat is accelerating and it is projected that glacier mass will decrease by 20 percent to 40 percent by 2050, affecting the lives and livelihoods of about 750 million people in the region," the report said.

"This has major ramifications for global sea level, regional water cycles and local hazards such as landslides and avalanches."

A quarter of Asia's mangroves are in Bangladesh. However, the tropical storm-exposed country's mangroves decreased by 19 percent from 1992 to 2019, the report said.

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US intelligence services see security threat in climate change
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