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CLIMATE SCIENCE
'Liveable future' at risk, UN climate report warns
By Marlowe HOOD, Kelly MACNAMARA
Paris (AFP) Feb 28, 2022

A landmark UN report said Monday that time had nearly run out to ensure a "liveable future" for all, detailing a horrifying "atlas of human suffering" and warning that far worse was to come.

Species extinction, ecosystem collapse, insect-borne disease, deadly heatwaves and megastorms, water shortages, reduced crop yields -- all are measurably worse due to rising temperatures, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said.

In the last year alone, the world has seen a cascade of unprecedented floods, heatwaves and wildfires across four continents.

Such events will accelerate in coming decades even if the fossil fuel pollution driving climate change is rapidly brought to heel, the 195-nation IPCC warned.

As nations struggle to bend the curve of carbon dioxide emissions downward, they must also prepare for a climate onslaught that in some cases can no longer be avoided, the report made clear.

For UN chief Antonio Guterres, it stands as a "damning indictment" of failed leadership that he described as nothing short of "criminal".

"The world's biggest polluters are guilty of arson of our only home," he said.

Even Russia's invasion of Ukraine cannot distract from the truths laid bare in the 3,600-page report and its summary for policymakers, said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

"The international community must urgently continue to pursue ambitious climate action, even as we face other pressing global challenges," he said in a written statement.

Svitlana Krakovska, who headed Ukraine's delegation, spoke passionately at the conference's final virtual plenary about the link between conflict and global warming.

- 'Root' of war and warming -

"Human-induced climate change and the war on Ukraine have the same roots -- fossil fuels -- and our dependence on them," she said.

Among the report's key takeaways was the intertwined fates of human and natural systems.

It stressed that climate change cannot be tamed unless degraded forests and oceans that stock carbon are restored and protected; and the ecosystems on which life forms depend for clean water, air and soil will not survive intact in a world of runaway warming.

The report made clear that a viable future rests on a knife's edge.

Some dire impacts are already irreversible, such as the likely demise of nearly all shallow water corals.

Others points-of-no-return lie just beyond the Paris Agreement's aspirational target of capping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, the report warned.

The 2015 treaty enjoins nations to hold the increase in temperatures to "well below" 2C, but recent science has left no doubt that a 1.5C threshold is far safer.

Even in optimistic scenarios of rapid reductions in carbon pollution, projections of climate impacts are sobering.

Up to 14 percent of land species face a "very high" risk of extinction with only 1.5C of warming, the IPCC said, bolstering calls for conservation of 30 to 50 percent of the world's land and ocean territory.

The threat grows with every fraction of a degree.

- Adaptation -

By 2050 there will be more than a billion people in coastal areas highly vulnerable to storm surges amplified by rising seas by 2050. Per usual, the poorest will often be the hardest hit.

An additional 410 million people will be exposed to water scarcity from severe drought at 2C of warming, and up to 80 million will be at risk of hunger by mid-century.

By 2100, around $10 trillion of assets will be in flood-prone coastal areas in a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario, according to the report.

The IPCC assessment -- the sixth since 1990 -- highlights the need to cope with unavoidable climate impacts on almost every page.

Overall, the IPCC warns, global warming is outpacing our preparations for a climate-addled world.

"For people in Africa living on the front line of climate change, it is adapt or die," said Peter Verkooijen, CEO of the Rotterdam-based Global Centre on Adaptation.

The report also spotlights irreversible and potentially catastrophic changes in the climate system known as tipping points, triggered at different thresholds of global heating.

These include the melting of ice sheets atop Greenland and the West Antarctic that could lift oceans 13 metres (43 feet); the morphing of the Amazon basin from tropical forest to savannah; and the disruption of ocean currents that distribute heat across the globe.

"The cumulative scientific evidence is unequivocal: Climate change is a threat to human wellbeing and planetary health," the report concluded.

Further delays in cutting carbon pollution and preparing for impacts already in the pipeline "will miss a brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all."

UN climate report: country impacts
Paris (AFP) Feb 28, 2022 - From cities and small islands threatened by rising seas, to regions facing extreme drought and deadly heatwaves, climate change threatens every part of the planet, the UN warned on Monday.

Here are 10 key climate change threats and how they will hit various countries if emissions are not cut fast, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's new report.

- Heat: Sydney at 50C -

Parts of the world will get too hot and humid for humans to live in this century if carbon emissions keep rising. Elsewhere, the heat will make it deadly to work outside for part of the year.

In Africa, heat and humidity would kill 50-180 more people per 100,000 each year if the globe warms by 2.5C. Under current targets, global temperatures are set to rise 2.7C, the UN estimates.

If global temperatures rise 2C, Sydney and Melbourne could reach 50C. Farm workers in the US could suffer dangerous heat and humidity if emissions are high.

- Drought: US crops hit -

Hotter weather will lower rivers and reservoirs and dry up crops if emissions are not cut. Drought is already slowing growth in crop yields.

In the United States, crop losses such as those in the 2012 Midwest and Great Plains drought have been partly attributed to climate change.

In Europe, crop losses due to drought and heat have tripled over the past 50 years and will grow with continued warming.

- Floods: Rising in Europe -

Even with more drought in some places, others will suffer more flash floods and landslides as climate change messes up rain patterns.

In Europe, the last three decades saw the most floods in 500 years. Floods like the ones that struck Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands in 2021 will get more frequent.

In Canada, winter rainfall is expected to increase, driving floods such as those that hit its Pacific coast in November 2021. Japan is already seeing a significant increase in the number of heavy rain events every year.

- Wildfires: Growing in Canada -

Wildfires such as those that ravaged Australia, Canada and the United States in recent years are forecast to get worse with climate change.

Fires in Australia are getting fiercer and more frequent, with an increase of up to 70 percent more fire days expected by 2050 in some regions if emissions continue to rise.

In Canada, climate change climate change has led to warmer and drier conditions. That has seen the area burned increase in the last several decades and is projected to worsen, with longer fire seasons and higher temperatures, like those seen in the 2021 heatwave. Annual fire costs there could more than double to $ one billion by the end of the century, even if emissions drop fast.

- Food: At risk in Africa -

Worsening weather extremes threaten world food supplies, disrupting grain, meat, dairy and fish. Food production is already lower than it would have been without climate change -- productivity has slowed by 21 percent.

The amount of fish that can be sustainably harvested from certain marine populations decreased by 4.1 percent globally from 1930 to 2010.

The number of people at risk of hunger by 2050 will increase by eight to 80 million, depending on the degree of warming, most of them in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Central America.

Heat and extreme rain harm soil; too much CO2 reduces nutrients and vitamins in crops. The risks of crop failure, food shortages and price rises will grow if emissions are not cut fast.

- Species: Extinction in Costa Rica -

Climate change is threatening animals and plants and has already driven some to extinction.

Two species are documented to have gone extinct due to climate change: the Golden toad of Costa Rica, stricken by drought, and the Bramble Cay Melomys mouse in Australia, hit by rising seas and storms.

In South Africa, 14 species of birds and fruit bats died en masse in 2020 due to extreme heat. The African penguin's population has fallen 96 percent since 1900, mostly in the past two decades.

Protection measures will not be enough without faster emission cuts, the report warns. Coral reefs will virtually disappear with 2C warming.

- Forests: Vanishing in Brazil -

Heat, drought and wildfires are killing trees and breaking their ecosystems, turning forests to dry grassland - and leaving fewer trees to help absorb the CO2.

In Brazil half the Amazon rainforest could turn to grassland if emissions continue to rise, the report warns. Lower emissions could limit the loss to five percent.

This would have devastating consequences for biodiversity and indigenous peoples, while releasing carbon stored in trees and further driving global warming.

Studies cited in the report also show the threat from high emissions to forests in Europe, the United States, Canada and Australia.

- Sea rise: Cities in China -

Millions of people could be displaced this century by rising seas that will cover the land or ruin it for farming. Some small islands are likely to become uninhabitable without quick emissions cuts.

Globally, sea levels will likely rise between 44 and 76 centimetres this century if governments meet their current pledges, said the IPCC's 2021 report. Faster cuts could limit this to 28-55cm.

The countries most vulnerable include Bangladesh, India, Indonesia and Japan. Guangzhou in southern China ranks as the city most economically vulnerable to sea-level rise, the new report says: it could lose hundreds of billions of dollars a year by 2050 if emissions are high.

- Ice: Melting in Scandinavia -

Rising heat is melting ice and snow, disrupting ecosystems and infrastructure. Low-altitude ski resorts will rely on expensive snowmaking to survive.

Mountain glaciers in Scandinavia, central Europe and the Caucasus are projected to lose 60-80 percent of their mass by the end of the century. Lake, river and sea ice have decreased. Changing ice has disrupted reindeer herding by the Sami people in Lapland.

In Canada, permafrost thawing has led to disruptions in airport operations, railways, water and sewage services and schools. Similar damage is also documented in Russia.

- Economy: Threatened worldwide -

Climate change is curbing growth and incomes and threatens trillions of dollars' worth of damage.

Estimates cited in the report say high warming of 4C could drag down global GDP between 10 and 23 percent this century, compared to a world without warming. With no action, climate change could push between 35 and 132 million more people into extreme poverty by 2030.

GDP per capita was 13.6 percent lower for African countries in 2010 than it would have been without global warming since 1991. Sub-Saharan Africa could lose a further 12 percent of GDP by 2050 and 80 percent by 2100 with high emissions.


Related Links
Climate Science News - Modeling, Mitigation Adaptation


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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Climate migrants could face a world of closing doors
Paris (AFP) Feb 28, 2022
People driven from their homes as global warming redraws the map of habitable zones are unlikely to find refuge in countries more focused on slamming shut their borders than planning for a climate-addled future, according to a top expert on migration. From fleeing a typhoon to relocating in anticipation of sea level rise, climate migration covers a myriad of situations and raises a host of questions. But one thing is sure: the number of climate refugees is going to increase in the coming decad ... read more

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