New study highlights carbon removal insufficiency under Paris Agreement goals

New study highlights carbon removal insufficiency under Paris Agreement goals
by Sophie Jenkins
London, UK (SPX) May 06, 2024

Researchers from the University of East Anglia (UEA) have identified a significant shortfall in global carbon dioxide removal efforts needed to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5 C warming limit. The study, a collaborative effort led by the Berlin-based Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, was published in Nature Climate Change.

Since 2010, the UNEP's annual emissions gap reports have measured the discrepancy between national climate commitments and the reductions needed to cap warming at 1.5 C or below 2 C. This new research applies the same evaluative framework specifically to carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies, focusing on the gap between current plans and necessary outcomes.

"In the Emissions Gap Reports, carbon removals are only accounted for indirectly," said Dr. William Lamb, lead author from the MCC. "We are now making transparent the specific ambition gap in scaling up removals. This planetary waste management will soon place completely new requirements on policymakers and may even become a central pillar of climate protection in the second half of the century."

Dr. Naomi Vaughan, co-author from the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at UEA, emphasized the importance of enhanced CDR methods alongside significant emission reductions. "Our analysis shows that countries need more awareness, ambition, and action on scaling up CDR methods to achieve the aspirations of the Paris Agreement," she noted.

The researchers project that even if national targets are met, human-induced carbon removals will increase by only up to 0.5 gigatonnes of CO2 by 2030, and 1.9 gigatonnes by 2050. This is starkly inadequate compared to the 5.1 gigatonnes required by a focus scenario in the latest IPCC report, which combines rapid renewable energy expansion and fossil emissions reductions.

An alternative scenario, assuming a significant reduction in global energy demand, suggests a slightly more optimistic outlook, with a gap of only 0.4 gigatonnes by 2050. However, scaling up carbon removals faces sustainability challenges, such as impacts on biodiversity and food security.

Currently, novel CDR technologies like air filter systems and enhanced rock weathering remove a negligible 0.002 gigatonnes of CO2 annually, a fraction of the 3 gigatonnes removed through traditional methods like afforestation.

"The calculation should certainly be refined," Dr. Lamb added. "But our proposal using the focus scenarios further opens the discourse on how much carbon removal is necessary to meet the Paris Agreement. This much is clear: without a rapid reduction in emissions towards zero, across all sectors, the 1.5 C limit will not be met under any circumstances."

Research Report:The carbon dioxide removal gap