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POLITICAL ECONOMY
No risk of a credit bubble: Brazil banker

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by Staff Writers
Rio De Janeiro (UPI) Feb 23, 2011
Brazil isn't at risk from a credit bubble and is well on track to record another year of rapid growth, Itau Unibanco President and Chief Executive Officer Roberto Setubal said in a rebuttal of media speculation about the state of the Latin American country's finances.

Reports about challenges facing Brazil's economy, especially its burgeoning credit sector, followed a Financial Times report that Brazil could be heading for a subprime crisis. Perceived overheating of the Brazilian economy has been in the news since last year, as investors made a beeline for Brazil, attracted by its lucrative interest rates and financial products.

Awash with more investment cash than its economy could immediately absorb, Brazil found the real appreciating out of control, raising fears for the country's exports. Critics also cited high interest rates as a burden on Brazilian consumers.

Setubal brushed aside suggestions that a credit bubble might be on the horizon for Brazil. Itau Unibanco is one of the largest private banks in Latin America.

Instead, he said, Brazil's sustained economic growth could be rewarded by an expansion of between 15 percent and 20 percent in its credit portfolios in 2011.

"There is plenty of room to grow," he said.

The banker told a news conference the volume of credit in the Brazilian economy as a proportion of gross domestic product was still not large. GDP is set to expand by 4.5 percent this year, amid solid growth following on from 7.5 percent expansion in 2010.

"I don't foresee any risk of a credit bubble in Brazil," he said. "The expansion of lending volume is under control."

The Financial Times this week drew attention to Brazil's high interest rates on consumer goods, which the newspaper called "punitive." It said Brazil could face a sub-prime crisis similar to that in the United States as overburdened consumers found they couldn't pay back loans.

The new administration of President Dilma Rousseff, who came into office in January, indicated it is keen to trim public spending and reduce wastage. Officials have also made comments about poverty reduction programs and more efforts to protect Brazil's exports as the real continues its inexorable appreciation.

Brazil government officials have repeatedly blamed "currency wars" between China and the United States for some of the country's economic woes.

The Financial Times report warned Brazil's "credit binge" over the past five years of credit growth had run at 2.4 times nominal GDP, which compared with 2, 1.6 and 1.2 times for Russia, India and China respectively.

The newspaper said similarities with the U.S. crisis aside, there are also unique features in Brazil. Risk management infrastructure has largely been missing in Brazil's credit buildup, the paper said.



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